Kevin O'Leary Skeptical of December Fed Rate Cut Impact on Bitcoin
According to Cointelegraph, American entrepreneur and investor Kevin O’Leary has expressed skepticism regarding the speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, a move often seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies. Despite this, O’Leary does not foresee a Fed rate hold negatively affecting Bitcoin's price. During an interview on Tuesday, O’Leary, also known as “Mr Wonderful,” stated, “I don’t actually think the Fed's gonna cut in December,” emphasizing that it won’t significantly impact Bitcoin.
O’Leary further elaborated on his investment strategy, noting that he is not investing with the expectation of a rate cut. He cited various reasons why the Federal Reserve might refrain from cutting rates, including persistent inflation. The annual inflation rate rose to 3% in September, marking the highest level since January. O’Leary highlighted the dual mandate of full employment and inflation, mentioning that tariffs and input costs are beginning to take effect. Despite these concerns, market participants have assigned an 89.2% probability to a Fed rate cut in December, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Crypto traders typically view Fed rate cuts as bullish for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, as investors often shift from bonds and term deposits that become less attractive. However, some fear that an unexpected Fed rate decision could negatively impact Bitcoin's price and the broader crypto market. O’Leary, however, does not anticipate this scenario. He believes Bitcoin has found “a level for now” and does not predict the price will drop significantly. “I think it’s going to sort of drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction, but I don’t see a lot of upside catalyst,” O’Leary remarked. Bitcoin has declined by 17.35% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap, and is currently trading at $91,440.
Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated significantly in recent weeks. On November 19, the odds of an interest rate cut at the December meeting dropped to 33%, following a period where investors placed the odds at about 67% during the first week of November. However, by November 21, the odds nearly doubled to 69.40% after New York Fed President John Williams made dovish remarks, suggesting the Fed could cut rates “in the near term” without jeopardizing its inflation goal. Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal attributed the sharp increase in odds to these comments. Following the first rate cut of 2025 in September and another in November, markets broadly anticipated the Federal Reserve would continue easing policy through the end of the year.
