XRP Price Holds Steady Amid October Recovery Hopes
According to Cointelegraph, XRP has maintained its position above a crucial level in September, sparking optimism for a potential recovery in October. The cryptocurrency opened the month trading around $2.77, following a 14% decline over the previous two weeks. Analysts emphasize the importance of holding above the $2.75 mark, which aligns with the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. Maintaining this level could pave the way for a breakout above the descending trendline at $2.86, potentially leading to a bullish target of $3.62.
The Glassnode distribution heatmap highlights significant demand between $2.75, where approximately 1.58 billion XRP were acquired, underscoring the importance of this price level. However, a supply wall around $2.81, reinforced by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), may hinder short-term recovery efforts. A drop below $2.75 could trigger a sell-off towards $2.00, the bearish target of the symmetrical triangle. Analyst Hardy noted in a recent post that XRP remains in a bullish consolidation, with upside potential as long as the price stays above the $2.72-$2.75 range. Fellow analyst XForceGlobal added that prolonged consolidation around $2.75 could strengthen the breakout, with targets of $20-30 still in play.
Historically, October has been challenging for XRP, with the cryptocurrency closing in the red for seven of the past twelve years, averaging returns of -4.58%. However, November typically marks a turnaround, making the October-December period the most favorable quarter for XRP rallies, with average gains of 51%, according to Cryptorank data. Notably, XRP experienced a 240% rally in Q4/2024 and a 20% increase in Q4/2023. The most significant surge occurred in 2017, with gains of 1,064% between October 1 and December 1. Despite occasional bear cycles, the last quarter consistently delivers substantial price movements, suggesting a potential reversal in Q4/2025, possibly starting mid-October.
The upcoming focus on XRP ETFs could further boost the cryptocurrency's rally, with several SEC deadlines approaching in mid-October. Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF decision has been postponed to November 14, while REX/Osprey's XRPR launched on September 18, recording nearly $38 million in first-day volume. Grayscale's decision is anticipated on October 18, with other key deadlines falling between October 19 and October 25. Analysts predict streamlined SEC standards and post-Ripple lawsuit clarity could lead to a 100% approval rate by December 31, potentially unlocking $4–$8 billion in first-year inflows. However, market participants caution that this event may already be partially priced in, posing a risk of approvals turning into a "sell the news" scenario. Readers are reminded that this article does not offer investment advice, and all trading decisions should be made based on individual research and risk assessment.
