OTC Weekly Trading Insights (08/29/2025)
Overall Market Data source: TradingViewIn last week’s report, our desk emphasized the critical importance of maintaining the key trendline to sustain Bitcoin’s upward momentum. We also identified $108,000 as the next significant support level should the trendline fail. While Bitcoin’s price action was weaker than initially expected, the trendline held as support, bolstered by the dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday. However, the subsequent price surge appeared more like a short squeeze than a genuine shift in market momentum. Over the weekend, the bearish pressure resumed, culminating in a decisive break below the trendline on Monday. Bitcoin then tested the $108,000 support level, exactly as we anticipated in our previous analysis.Following the confirmed breakdown, the former trendline has now flipped to act as resistance. Tuesday’s modest rebound was largely driven by Ethereum’s strong performance, fueled by a bullish tweet from Tom Lee, the renowned Wall Street strategist and current chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR). Bitmine Immersion has emerged as the largest corporate treasury holder of Ethereum and ranks second in crypto treasury holdings among US-listed companies, trailing only MicroStrategy. Tom Lee’s positive outlook, combined with Bitmine Immersion’s aggressive ETH accumulation, has reignited market enthusiasm for Ethereum. The ETH/BTC ratio continues its upward trajectory, currently trading at 0.4141, an 83% increase since Lee’s appointment as chairman of Bitmain in June 2025. Our desk has also observed significant ETH withdrawals from centralized exchanges, signaling strong demand from institutions, which reduced circulating supply. Therefore, we expect sustained upward price pressure on ETH as the trend continues.Solana (SOL), the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has also demonstrated robust performance against Bitcoin, supported by several corporations adopting Solana in their crypto treasury strategies. While traders are optimistic that Solana could replicate Ethereum’s rally, our desk maintains a more measured outlook. We believe Solana will benefit from corporate treasury inflows, but the scale of capital entering SOL will be considerably smaller than what Ethereum has experienced, leading to relative underperformance over the long term. A key factor is the absence of a dedicated ETF venue for Solana, which was instrumental in driving Ethereum’s price surge by attracting substantial institutional and retail investment. Without this critical channel, Solana’s price momentum is likely to be more muted.Additionally, traditional finance institutions, including banks and credit card companies, are heavily investing in Ethereum’s infrastructure, particularly in applications involving stablecoins, Real World Assets (RWA), and other innovations. Although Solana boasts higher Transactions Per Second (TPS) than Ethereum, the ETH network remains the most decentralized and benefits from the largest, most mature developer community. This foundational strength further supports Ethereum’s dominant position and long-term growth potential relative to Solana.Following the brief surge in Bitcoin’s price triggered by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks, our desk anticipates an extended period of sideways trading for BTC in the coming weeks. We remain cautiously optimistic that Bitcoin could stage another rally following the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut in September. However, the upcoming PCE inflation data, due this Friday, will be a critical catalyst for the crypto market’s direction next month. Should the inflation figures come in higher than expected, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September would diminish significantly, and Bitcoin may be pressured to retest the $108,000 support level.Bitcoin ETF TrackerThe above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Over the past five trading days, our desk observed relatively muted capital inflows into Bitcoin despite its strong price rally last Friday. The dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell triggered a short squeeze across the crypto market, briefly lifting BTC prices. However, this momentum proved short-lived as selling pressure quickly re-emerged over the weekend, driving Bitcoin below the critical $110,000 level. This price action underscores the market’s current hesitancy and the need for more sustained catalysts to support a decisive upward move in BTC.In contrast, Ethereum has demonstrated robust capital inflows, particularly into ETH ETFs, over the last several days. This influx of institutional and retail investment has provided solid support for ETH, enabling it to reclaim and hold above the $4,550 mark as of Tuesday. The strength in ETH is further reinforced by aggressive corporate treasury adoption, which continues to reduce circulating supply and bolster market confidence.As outlined earlier, our desk expects Bitcoin to trade sideways within a broad range in the near term, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and consolidation. Meanwhile, we maintain a bullish outlook on Ethereum, driven by strong fundamentals, strategic corporate accumulation, and growing institutional interest. This divergence highlights Ethereum’s increasing role as a preferred asset in the evolving crypto landscape, positioning it well for sustained growth even as Bitcoin navigates a period of consolidation.Macro at a glance Last Thursday, August 21US initial jobless claims rose slightly to 235,000, exceeding the forecast of 226,000, while continuing claims also increased to 1,972,000, above the expected 1,960,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index experienced a sharp drop to -0.3 in August, well below both last month’s 15.9 and the market forecast of 6.8. S&P Global’s revised Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) projections painted a more optimistic picture, with Manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 expansion threshold to 53.3 (up from 49.7) and Services PMI increasing to 55.4 from 54.2, indicating ongoing US economic expansion.On Friday, August 22 Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole signaled a likely rate cut in September. The Fed also updated its "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy," moving away from the strict 2% inflation target set post-pandemic and allowing more flexibility, which could pave the way for earlier rate reductions.On Tuesday, August 26Japan’s core CPI growth slowed to 2.0% year-over-year from 2.3% the previous month. US durable goods orders declined by 2.8% in July, a smaller drop than the forecasted 3.8%. US consumer confidence edged down slightly to 97.4 in August from 98.7 in July but remained above expectations.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. 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