At Binance Blockchain Week Dubai 2025, Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal delivered one of the most anticipated macro discussions of the conference — a 20-minute rapid-fire masterclass on liquidity, risk cycles, altcoins, and the signals he says will define where markets move in 2026.Speaking with Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin, Pal argued against the dominant sentiment circulating on Crypto Twitter: “No, this is not the start of a bear market. It’s a correction inside an ongoing bull market.”Below are the key insights, signals, and warnings from Pal’s high-conviction macro thesis — which he says will either be confirmed or disproven as early as January and February.“Liquidity Explains 90% of Bitcoin’s Price — And 2026 Will Be a Liquidity Explosion”Pal’s central argument is simple:Bitcoin moves with global liquidity, not with the four-year halving myth.“This four-year cycle handed down from Satoshi isn’t some law of nature. Liquidity drives this market — and global liquidity is about to surge.”He outlined several forces converging simultaneously:The Trump administration’s 2026 fiscal stimulus packageMassive money printing through regulatory mechanismsChanges to banking leverage rules (SLR) forcing banks to absorb more TreasuriesA weaker U.S. dollar beginning in early 2026Term repo facilities injecting fresh liquidity into the financial systemThe surprise:These policies begin activating in January — not later in the year.If Pal is right, Bitcoin and the broader market should reflect this quickly:“If January and February are not strong months, my thesis is wrong. But everything is lining up exactly for strength.”“Sentiment Is the Most Washed Out I’ve Seen — That’s Bullish, Not Bearish”Pal pushed back against the narrative that recent sell-offs signal the end of a cycle.Key reasoning:Bitcoin hit new highs; almost nothing else did.OGs sold, ETFs saw temporary outflows, and sentiment collapsed.But historically, deep sentiment resets inside bull markets are normal — including Bitcoin’s 50% crash in mid-2021 before reaching new all-time highs.“How can this be a bear market when almost no assets went to new highs yet?This is a correction — the main cycle hasn’t even happened.”What Retail Should Watch: The Public Signals of a Liquidity TurnFor traders and long-term investors, Pal highlighted macro indicators to monitor:Global M2 growthA weakening U.S. dollarPolicy shifts from the U.S. Treasury & Federal ReserveBanking regulation changes like SLR adjustmentsHe emphasized that these obscure-sounding regulatory changes are massive catalysts:“Lowering risk weights on Treasuries lets banks buy unlimited amounts of bonds.That is liquidity creation. That’s fuel.”Altcoin Season: Why It Hasn’t Happened — And Why Pal Says It WillMany attendees echoed the same question:“Where is altcoin season?”Pal’s answer:Altcoins, like small-cap equities, are driven by the business cycle — specifically the ISM manufacturing index.Once ISM crosses 50 to the upside, risk appetite explodes.With fiscal and monetary stimulus coming, Pal expects:ISM turning positiveA resurgence of risk appetiteCapital rotating aggressively down the crypto risk curve“When that happens, Bitcoin dominance collapses and the smart-contract platforms run.That’s the start of altseason.”The AI Trade vs. Crypto: Will Altcoins Be Ignored?Pal addressed a common skepticism:Why buy altcoins when AI equities like NVIDIA dominate returns?His response:Retail investors chase the highest potential upside — and altcoins still offer asymmetric returns AI stocks cannot match:“If Bitcoin can do 2x, an altcoin can do 10x.Retail will always chase that.”He added that AI is already heavily funded by institutions, while crypto remains underallocated.Dilution, New Tokens & Unlocks: Will They Kill Altseason?“No,” Pal said clearly.Mass issuance is outweighed by a much larger force:The scale of global capital entering crypto for the first time.“Every cycle, the inflows get bigger. That dwarfs token unlocks.The real challenge is not dilution — it’s choosing quality.”Raoul Pal’s Framework for Picking AltcoinsPal rarely invests in small-cap tokens directly. His approach is strictly high-level and disciplined:1. Stick primarily to major L1sBitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, plus a few emerging L1s like Sui.2. Track real network metricsThe two most important:Active usersValue transactedNot hype — real activity.3. Benchmark everything to Solana“If your altcoin isn’t outperforming Solana, you are destroying capital.”4. Only rotate when both metrics and price structure confirmPal watches:Weekly and monthly chartsBasing patternsBreakouts validated by fundamentalsThis is why he rotated from Solana to Sui early in the cycle:“Sui’s network is one of the fastest-growing.The data and the chart aligned — that’s when you act.”Narratives for 2026: The Ones That MatterPal cautioned that recent narrative rotations (“mining coins,” “DeFi rounds,” “ZCash moment”) were just capital recycling, not true adoption.His real 2026 narratives:AI + crypto (the real version, not hype spikes)Stablecoins & settlement networksHigh-throughput L1s (Solana, Sui, Avalanche, Near)Digital art & NFTs as contrarian bets“Don’t F* This Up”: Raoul Pal’s 2026 Playbook**Pal closed with a blunt warning:Retail investors lose money because they:FOMO into rotationsOvertradeChase returnsUse leverageAbandon high-quality assets for speculationHis rule:**Hold BTC, ETH, SOL, or a basket of major L1s.Don’t use leverage.Limit degen plays to 5–10%.**“If people simply held a basket of high-quality assets,they would outperform 99.9% of short-term traders.”Pal’s Final Call: “2026 Will Be the Year of the Yellow Fruit”A reference to the banana-yellow Binance theme spreading across the arena, Pal hinted that 2026 could be one of crypto’s strongest market expansions ever.“If my thesis is right, this will be one of the biggest liquidity cycles we’ve seen.Just don’t mess it up.” 

AAA-rated ULTRA fund launches with Wellington Management and Standard Chartered backing source: https://www.blockhead.co/2025/12/04/stable-theo-commit-over-100-million-to-tokenized-treasury-fund/

A 21-year-old Ukrainian man was reportedly found dead in the back of a burned out Mercedes after being forced to surrender his crypto wallets. source: https://www.theblock.co/post/381327/police-arrest-two-ukrainian-men-after-vienna-killing-linked-to-crypto-wallet-theft?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

CoinDCX’s Sumit Gupta said that crypto is becoming a natural extension of traditional investing as Indian traders mature. source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/coindcx-users-show-signs-of-longer-term-crypto-allocation-report-finds?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

The Bitcoin-focused firm, Twenty One, has announced that it will be going public with a listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) scheduled for December 9th. This significant milestone marks an important step for the company as it aims to further establish its presence in the cryptocurrency market and attract a broader range of investors. The move is anticipated to create new opportunities for growth and innovation within the rapidly evolving digital currency landscape. source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/12/04/bitcoin-focused-firm-twenty-one-sees-public-nyse-listing-on-dec-9

미국 판사는 저작권 소송의 일환으로 OpenAI에게 익명으로 처리된 2천만 건의 ChatGPT 대화 로그를 여러 뉴스 기관에 넘기라고 명령했습니다. 이 소송은 OpenAI가 사용자 개인정보 보호에 대한 우려에도 불구하고 저작권이 있는 기사를 무단으로 복제했는지 여부를 조사하는 것입니다.

USDT, 스테이블코인, 위안화의 강력한 반격 스테이블코인, "위험 자산"이 되다 골드 파이낸스,지난 6개월 동안 위안화는 조용히 "반격"을 완료했습니다.

월요일부터 금요일까지 나머지 73%의 시간 동안 거래 시스템은 멈춰 있습니다. 이 문제를 어떻게 해결할 수 있을까요?

비엔나에서 21세의 우크라이나 학생이 공격자들이 암호화폐 지갑의 비밀번호를 알려주도록 강요한 후 고문을 당하고 불을 질러 사망했습니다. 용의자 2명은 훔친 암호화폐를 가지고 우크라이나로 도주했고 3일 후 체포되어 암호화폐 보유자에 대한 폭력적 공격의 위험이 증가하고 있음을 강조했습니다.

전반적인 추세로 볼 때, 가상자산에 대한 중국 본토의 사법 및 규제 태도는 점차 '전면 부정'에서 '분류 및 차별화'로 전환되고 있으며, 국경을 넘는 규제 환경도 빠른 속도로 재편되고 있습니다.

2025년 12월 1일, 유서 깊은 탈중앙화 수익 집계 프로토콜인 Yearn이 공격을 받아 약 900만 달러의 손실을 입었습니다.

1983~1996년의 베네수엘라 여행자 수표 시장은 스테이블코인 모델링에 있어 강력하면서도 잘 연구되지 않은 역사적 사례입니다. 이는 금융 억압 하에서 시장은 항상 평행 가격 발견 메커니즘을 구축한다는 것을 보여줍니다.

많은 안드로이드 휴대폰에 사용되는 미디어텍 칩의 결함으로 인해 공격자가 디바이스를 완전히 제어할 수 있으며, 이 결함은 칩의 하드웨어에 있기 때문에 수정할 수 없습니다. Ledger는 이 취약점으로 인해 공격자가 시동 중에 보안을 우회할 수 있기 때문에 영향을 받는 휴대폰에 암호화 키를 저장하는 것이 안전하지 않다고 말합니다.

이번 반등은 감정적 수준에서 시장 분위기를 크게 개선하고, 기술적 수준에서 주요 지지선을 재구성하고, 재정적 수준에서 잠재적 참여 의지를 해제하지만 강세장의 추세에서는 여전히 무대 거리가 있습니다.

예측, 암호화폐 시장, HTX 리서치 예측 시장을 설명하는 최신 연구 보고서: 구조적 딜레마에서 주목의 가능성까지 경제 인프라 황금 금융, 예측 시장은 지난 한 해 동안 상당한 성장을 보였습니다.