Key Takeaways:The S&P 500 has traded above its 20-day moving average for 68 consecutive sessions.The VIX Volatility Index has dropped nearly 45 points since April, hitting a five-month low.Analysts expect a potential spike in volatility beginning in August, based on historical patterns.The U.S. equity market is showing signs of potential turbulence after an extended period of low volatility and consistent gains. According to a new analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 has now remained above its 20-day moving average for 68 straight trading days — the longest such streak since the 1990s.Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) — widely considered Wall Street's "fear gauge" — has plunged approximately 45 points since April, currently hovering near 15, its lowest level since mid-February.Historical Trends Suggest Imminent Volatility SpikeHistorically, U.S. stock market volatility tends to remain subdued from May through July. However, data shows that volatility typically picks up in August, with the VIX often rising by about 5 points (or 30%) over the following three months.The extended bullish trend in the S&P 500 combined with historically low volatility raises the question of whether the market is overdue for a correction or a volatility shock, especially as macro uncertainty grows.What’s Fueling Investor Caution?Economic Data: Weaker U.S. job growth and shifting interest rate expectations are prompting investors to reassess risk.Macro Risks: Tariff escalations, Fed policy ambiguity, and geopolitical tensions may all contribute to rising uncertainty.Technical Indicators: Prolonged trading above short-term moving averages can signal overextension, often preceding a pullback.Volatility Could Be Reentering the PictureIf the historical pattern holds, market participants should brace for an increase in volatility through August and September, periods that often coincide with higher trading volume and sharper price swings.While the current trend has favored bulls, analysts caution that the next phase of the market may be defined by greater turbulence and shorter-term positioning, especially as traders digest the latest macro developments.

Key Takeaways:Funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) diverge.Mixed sentiment: some markets show bearish signals, while others remain neutral.Current funding rates reflect uncertainty amid volatile macro and crypto conditions.On August 4, data from Coinglass revealed a diverging trend in crypto perpetual futures funding rates across mainstream centralized and decentralized exchanges. The funding rate discrepancies indicate a split between bearish and neutral sentiment, underscoring a broader sense of market indecision.Funding rates are a mechanism used in perpetual contracts to ensure alignment between the contract price and the spot price of the underlying asset. Rates above 0.01% typically reflect bullish market positioning, while rates below 0.005% suggest rising bearish sentiment.Mixed Sentiment Across PlatformsAccording to BlockBeats, the current funding landscape highlights fragmented market expectations:Some exchanges are reporting funding rates near or slightly above the 0.01% benchmark, suggesting modest bullish bets.Others are seeing rates fall toward or below the 0.005% threshold, hinting at growing short pressure.This divergence implies that while some traders remain cautious, others may be positioning for short-term recovery or range-bound activity. The inconsistency reflects a market in flux, potentially driven by macro uncertainty, ETF flows, and recent volatility in Bitcoin and altcoins.Macro and Technical Drivers Behind the SplitThe mixed funding rate environment comes at a time when:U.S. jobs data and Fed policy are reshaping expectations for interest rates.Bitcoin recently broke below key technical patterns, prompting risk-off moves.Ethereum continues to show strength in on-chain metrics, despite broader hesitation.These contrasting factors contribute to non-uniform trader behavior across derivatives platforms.Consolidation or Further Volatility?The divergence in funding rates suggests that the crypto market may be entering a consolidation phase, with neither bulls nor bears in full control. Traders should watch for shifts in funding rates alongside volume and open interest changes to gauge the next directional move.

Key Points:US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data below 50,000 for 6 consecutive months could signal a recession.The US may already be halfway to meeting this recessionary condition.Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut contrast with political instability and weak economic outlook.The latest warning on the U.S. labor market comes from Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, who said that six consecutive months of sub-50,000 non-farm payroll gains would be a clear recession signal. With recent data showing only 73,000 jobs added in July, and downward revisions to May and June, the U.S. may already be halfway toward that threshold.“If the NFP trend continues below 50,000, it could mark the beginning of a broader recessionary phase,” Ozkardeskaya noted, according to Jinshi Data.Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Economic Fears MountWhile recession fears have fueled speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September, analysts caution that monetary easing alone won’t rescue markets amid deeper structural concerns.Markets have already priced in an 80.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's next policy meeting, up sharply from just 41.3% before the July jobs report.Political Risk and Economic Credibility in FocusThe weak jobs print has also added political pressure. President Trump recently fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) over the labor data, accusing the agency of skewing figures for political purposes. This unprecedented move raises concerns about the independence and credibility of official economic data.“A rate cut won’t magically save the market,” Ozkardeskaya warned, adding that blaming data agencies for poor policy outcomes may undermine confidence in the U.S. economy’s institutional framework.Crypto and Hard Assets Could BenefitAs recession signals strengthen and political tensions rise, hard assets like Bitcoin and gold may gain appeal. Investors seeking protection from both inflation and systemic risk could increasingly rotate into alternative stores of value, especially if further NFP misses confirm a recessionary trajectory.

Ethena and Immutable lead crypto token unlocks this week according to Tokenomist data. The total value to be unlocked for the week is around $535. 65 million across various protocols and projects. Cliff unlocks total $154. 59 million while linear releases add $56. 35 million daily. Ethena dominates with $107. 05 million to be unlocked, representing 2. 8% of its […] source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/ethena-imx-crypto-token-unlocks/

Key Takeaways:Analyst Axel Adler Jr. sees two more opportunities for BTC upside in this market cycle.Risk appetite among investors is declining as bull market matures.Fed expected to cut rates twice in 2025 before selling pressure outweighs demand.CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. believes the current bull market still holds two more potential rally phases before reaching its peak, despite signs of weakening investor sentiment and early profit-taking.According to a report shared by TechFlow, Adler noted that investor risk appetite has started to decline, consistent with the late-stage behavior of a bull cycle. Data shows the key market indicator surged past 1.9 in both March and December 2024, signaling strong bullish momentum at the time. However, the most recent peak is lower—suggesting reduced buying conviction and increasing sell pressure from holders."We're seeing a lower high forming, which often indicates a market cooling phase. Long-term holders are beginning to take profits, which puts pressure on prices," Adler said.Fed Rate Cuts May Fuel Final Crypto RalliesAdler also pointed to macroeconomic catalysts that could spur the final two rallies of this cycle. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, providing temporary tailwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.Still, he warned that once these rate cuts are priced in and supply outpaces demand, the market could shift toward a broader correction phase.Final Upside Before Macro ShiftCryptoQuant’s outlook suggests investors should brace for volatility, with short-term opportunities still present—but waning. Market watchers are now monitoring Fed policy, ETF flows, and long-term holder behavior as signals for when the final phase of this crypto cycle will unfold.

Key Takeaways:Sluggish U.S. job growth increases market expectations of Fed rate cuts.Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ say this benefits non-yielding assets like gold.Gold may see short-term support as traders seek safe-haven amid uncertainty.Gold prices could benefit in the short term as a weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market raises the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG).The comments follow Friday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls data, which showed the U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, far below estimates. The weak print has triggered a market repricing of monetary policy expectations, with the probability of a September Fed rate cut rising above 80%, according to CME FedWatch data.“This is good news for interest-free gold,” MUFG analysts said, citing growing demand for safe-haven assets as economic uncertainty builds.Gold Gains as Fed Outlook ShiftsLower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. As rate cut expectations intensify, gold often attracts capital from investors looking to hedge against market volatility and economic downturns.MUFG expects strong support for gold prices in the near term, especially if macro indicators continue to show signs of cooling, and geopolitical tensions persist.

Steelcase stock soars 43% in premarket trading after HNI Corporation announces $2. 2 billion acquisition deal at $18. 30 per share. source: https://tokenist.com/why-is-scs-stock-surging-in-premarket-trading-today/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-is-scs-stock-surging-in-premarket-trading-today

2017年のホタルの光から2025年の星の川まで、コインは8年間、強気と弱気のサイクル、業界の浮き沈みを乗り越えてきた。

CrediX, a Sonic lending protocol, suffered a series of unauthorized exploits. The hack is relatively small, but shows the vulnerability of even minor DeFi apps. source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/credix-suffers-exploit-on-sonic-chain/

A widely followed crypto analyst says that Ethereum (ETH) looks set to reach a new all-time high within the next few months. source: https://dailyhodl.com/2025/08/04/ethereum-to-break-all-time-highs-in-coming-months-predicts-analyst-benjamin-cowen-heres-when/

شهر أغسطس كان تاريخيًا من الأشهر الهابطة للبيتكوين، وقد بدأ بالفعل بتقلبات حادة. source: https://ar.cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dips-early-august-historical-bearish-pattern-continues?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

香港,ステーブルコイン,規制,香港ステーブルコイン草案が発効 香港におけるデジタル資産の規制を分析する：開発の歴史＋サンドボックスの実践 ゴールデンファイナンス、目撃者の歴史。

今晩のおすすめ記事：1.BTCの衝撃的な盗難事件が発覚：12万ビットコインで145億ドル チェーン上のニュースで真実が明らかに 2.10年にわたる改良の結果、イーサはチェーン上の資本市場の基本層となった 3.7月にイーサが暗号市場をリードしている根本的な論理；

本稿では、このインセンティブ・キャンペーンに焦点を当て、USDe/SUSDeと関連プラットフォームについて簡単に説明した後、収益構造、ユーザー行動、資金の流れの観点から、隠れたシステム上の課題を分析する。

最近、「ステーブルコイン」と「RWA（リアル・ワールド・アセット・トークナイゼーション）」というコンセプトが非常に話題になっているが、この2つがぶつかると、うまく偽装された「資本市場」がいくつも静かに成長する。両者が衝突するとき、多くの偽装された「マネー市場」が静かに成長している。

この夏、中国が第二次世界大戦終結80周年記念キャンペーンを強化するなか、中国近代史における最も暗い時代のひとつを舞台にした力強い戦時中のドラマが中国全土の観客を魅了している。

OpenAIはトップクラスの投資家から83億ドルを調達し、評価額を3000億ドルに引き上げ、今年中に総額400億ドルを目指す。この資金調達は、同社が完全な営利モデルへの転換を迫られ、マイクロソフトとの新たな契約をまとめる中で行われた。

英国の広告基準局（ASA）は、"Everything is Fine "と題されたコインベースの風刺広告を正式に禁止した。

Coinbaseの広告が、英国の金融システムに対する批判的なメッセージであるとして、広告基準局によって英国のテレビから追放された。コインベースの最高経営責任者（CEO）はこの決定を批判し、禁止は暗号の革新と規制の更新を求める広告にさらに注目を集めるだけだと述べた。

ハッキング,アーカム,BTCの衝撃的盗難事件が発覚 12万ビットコインで145億円 チェーンニュースで真実が明らかに ゴールデンファイナンス,BTCの大型マイニングプールはなぜ4年前に突然消えたのか？その答えが明らかに