OTC Weekly Trading Insights (07/17/2025)
Overall Market Source: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report, our desk maintained an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, anticipating a new all-time high in the coming weeks, primarily driven by robust capital inflows from the spot ETF segment. Our analysis highlighted that the muted implied volatility in Bitcoin options signaled the potential for a rapid price movement in either direction. We advised our readers to remain optimistic on Bitcoin’s price trajectory over the higher timeframes while preparing for short-term downside protection.The market evolved more rapidly than expected. The 7-day implied volatility for BTC options surged sharply from 25% on July 10 to over 40% by July 17, coinciding with a notable 6% price gain in seven days. Sustained capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs further propelled BTC’s price beyond the psychological $120,000 level, culminating in a new all-time high of 123,218 USDT.As of July 17, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $118,000 level, while many altcoins have posted impressive double-digit gains last week. Ethereum ($ETH) surged over 23%, briefly surpassing the $3,400 mark on Wednesday. Solana ($SOL) rallied more than 12%, trading above $175 on Wednesday during the US session. Other tokens also delivered strong returns last week, with Curve ($CRV) leading the pack with a 71.4% gain, Ondo ($ONDO) rising over 15% intraday, and Ethereum Name Service (ENS) appreciating by more than 37%.Over the past seven days, projects within the Ethereum ecosystem have benefited significantly from the ETH price rally. This strong performance was notably supported by aggressive accumulation from institutional players. SharpLink Gaming, a publicly listed company following a BTC accumulation strategy similar to Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, acquired $225 million worth of Ethereum in July, bringing its total holdings to approximately 280,000 ETH, valued at $884 million at current prices. Additionally, BitMine Immersion Technologies raised $250 million in June to establish an Ethereum treasury, acquiring over $500 million worth of ETH since then.This substantial corporate accumulation has materially reduced the available market supply of Ethereum, exerting upward pressure on its price and further fueling investor enthusiasm.Looking ahead, our analysis suggests that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate sideways around the current levels for another week or two, while altcoins are likely to maintain their outperformance relative to BTC. Although we hold an optimistic view on altcoin performance in the near term, we emphasize the importance of maintaining high conviction in the projects you invest in. Chasing recent strong gainers may not yield superior returns. Given the market’s tendency for rolling rallies across different tokens, holding high-conviction assets and patiently awaiting their turn is expected to deliver better outcomes during this phase.Bitcoin ETF TrackerThe above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.As highlighted in our previous discussions, our desk continues to view capital inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF as a critical driver of BTC price dynamics. According to the data presented above, over $2.2 billion flowed into Bitcoin during last Thursday and Friday, with substantial additional inflows recorded in the first three days of this week. This significant influx of capital underscores strong demand from traditional investors seeking higher growth opportunities and enhanced portfolio diversification.Additionally, our desk observed that a long-term Bitcoin holder, possessing over 80,000 BTC for more than 14 years, has begun to liquidate part of their holdings to realize profits gradually. Notably, the market absorbed the initial 40,000 BTC sell-off with minimal disruption, as BTC’s price declined by less than 1% before quickly recovering.The robust demand for Bitcoin reinforces our conviction that the ongoing bull market will sustain its upward momentum over the coming months. We believe that continued institutional adoption and capital inflows could propel BTC toward our year-end price target of $150,000.Macro at a glance Last Thursday, July 10, 2025Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered no monthly change in June, holding steady at 0.0%, which corresponds to an annual inflation rate of 2.0%, down from 2.1% in May. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany’s continued moderation in inflation signals progress toward the European Central Bank’s long-term target, reinforcing expectations of price stability in the region.In the United States, initial jobless claims remained low at 227,000, outperforming the forecast of 236,000. Continuing claims also declined to 1,965 thousand, below the anticipated 1,980 thousand. These figures suggest that the U.S. labor market remains resilient and stable amid ongoing economic uncertainties.Last Friday, July 11, 2025Canada reported a surprisingly strong employment gain in June, with 83,100 new jobs added compared to the forecasted 900 positions. The unemployment rate improved to 6.9% from 7.0% in May, beating expectations of a rise to 7.1%. On Monday, July 14, 2025China’s imports rebounded in June, posting a 1.1% year-over-year increase following a 3.4% decline in May. However, this growth fell short of analyst expectations of 1.3%, with ongoing tariff-related challenges continuing to constrain import expansion.Meanwhile, new loan issuance in China surged significantly due to seasonal factors, rising from 620 billion CNY in May to 2,240 billion CNY in June, surpassing the forecast of 1,960 billion CNY. This credit expansion reflects policy efforts to support domestic economic activity.On Tuesday, July 15, 2025China’s second-quarter GDP growth came in at 5.2% year-over-year, with the year-to-date annual growth rate at 5.3%, indicating steady economic momentum.In the U.S., headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in June, translating to a 2.7% annual increase—both higher than May’s 0.1% monthly and 2.4% annual figures. Core CPI also increased by 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annually, slightly above the previous month’s 0.1% and 2.8%, respectively. While tariffs began to impact inflation in June, the effect on core inflation components was milder than anticipated. These inflation dynamics increase the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.Canada also experienced an uptick in core CPI, which rose to 2.7% in June from 2.5% in May, reflecting similar inflationary pressures in the region.On Wednesday, July 16, 2025The United Kingdom saw a modest acceleration in headline CPI in June, with a 0.3% monthly increase compared to 0.2% in May. Annual inflation rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% the previous month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.In the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, missing the expected 0.2% increase. The annual PPI growth slowed to 2.3% from 2.7% in May, signaling a deceleration in wholesale inflation.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!
