OTC Weekly Trading Insights (07/03/2025)
Overall Market Source: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report last week, Bitcoin was trading near the upper boundary of a bull flag pattern, as illustrated in the chart above. Our desk anticipated two possible scenarios: either BTC would be rejected at the upper bound or successfully break through to test a new all-time high.BTC followed the first scenario, testing the upper boundary around $109,000 (with an actual high of $108,870) before facing rejection. Subsequently, the price retraced to the $104,000–$105,000 range (with an actual low of $105,250), where it found support. Following a rally in the US stock market fueled by investor optimism around the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” market sentiment turned more positive, while the US dollar weakened against other major currencies.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the impact of reciprocal tariffs could be less severe than previously anticipated, citing recent trade agreements between the US and several countries. Additionally, Bessent’s comments on Federal Reserve monetary policy increased the market’s expectations of a potential rate cut in September. The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, marked by a ceasefire agreement, further bolstered investor confidence in risk assets.Overall, market sentiment shifted bullishly toward risk assets, particularly the US stock market. However, the crypto market did not follow suit, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs over the past few trading sessions, while BTC remained range-bound.Notably, the BTC volatility index recently dropped to a two-year low, indicating that options traders expect BTC to trade within a tight range in the near term. Historical data suggests that such low volatility periods are typically short-lived, signaling that traders should prepare for a significant price move in either direction once BTC breaks out of its current range.Our desk leans toward an upward breakout scenario, supported by the broader macroeconomic optimism surrounding risk assets. While we expect BTC to reach a new all-time high in the coming weeks, we remain cautious of downside risks. We are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, as we believe that a more accommodative monetary environment will be essential to sustain the next crypto bull run.Bitcoin ETF TrackerThe above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Over the past five trading sessions, BTC spot ETFs have experienced predominantly strong capital inflows, with the exception of July 1, which saw a capital outflow of $342.25 million. In total, these sessions recorded net inflows exceeding $900 million. During the same period, BTC’s price moved modestly from $107,000 to $109,000.As previously noted, despite robust capital inflows from ETFs in recent weeks, BTC’s price has remained within a narrow range. Our analysts suggest that this price stability may be due to some long-term large BTC holders offloading assets at these levels, effectively offsetting the buying pressure from traditional finance participants.Given these dynamics, our desk maintains a cautiously neutral stance on BTC’s near-term price outlook. We continue to monitor developments on the ETF front closely, as it remains a critical factor supporting BTC’s price momentum in the current bull cycle.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (June 26, 2024)US initial jobless claims remained in a low range, with 236,000 claims reported last week, outperforming the forecast of 244,000.US durable goods orders are projected to show a significantly higher monthly growth of 16.4% in May, compared to the previous estimate of 8.6%. This notable upward revision may be attributed to the 90-day postponement of reciprocal tariffs, with the current deadline set for July 9.Last Friday (June 27, 2024)The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded a 2.3% annual increase in May, in line with market expectations. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.7% year-over-year, slightly exceeding the forecast of 2.6%.Monday (June 30, 2024)China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.7 for June, marginally above the forecast of 49.6 and an improvement from May’s 49.5. This suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector may be approaching expansion territory.Germany, one of the largest economies in the European Union, is projecting an annual inflation rate of 2.0% for June, down from the previous forecast of 2.2%.Tuesday (July 1, 2024)Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to report a 2.0% year-over-year increase in June, consistent with prior forecasts. Core CPI is also anticipated to remain steady at 2.3% annual growth.In the US, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 52.9, surpassing the forecast of 52.0. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also improved to 49.0, slightly above the expected 48.8. Both indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is recovering and moving toward expansion.Additionally, US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data revealed 7.769 million job openings in May, significantly higher than the forecasted 7.320 million.Wednesday (July 2, 2024)US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change surprised markets with a decline of 33,000 jobs in June, contrasting with expectations of a 99,000 increase.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!
