OTC Weekly Trading Insights (05/08/2025)

Top Interest of the WeekKAITO is a Web3 information platform that uses artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology to organize and distribute crypto-related information. KAITO provides real-time, AI-powered insights tailored to the needs of Web3 participants. It also introduces Information Finance (InfoFi), a system where market forces influence the way attention is distributed, aiming for a more transparent and decentralized information economy. $KAITO coin is the native cryptocurrency of the KAITO ecosystem, designed to facilitate governance, market incentives, and value exchange within its AI-powered InfoFi network. In the past seven days, $KAITO posted a 61.4% gain with enlarged trading volume, which could be attributed to its announcement to integrate Huma Finance’s Yapper leaderboard ahead of its TGE.Litecoin ($LTC) is one of the leading crypto projects in the payment sector since 2011. Recently, the SEC postponed their decision on the spot Litecoin ETF that Canary Capital filed, causing the LTC price to rapidly tank from $86 to $82. However, the price of LTC turned north after a short consolidation around the $82 level and shot above $92 with increased volume.Overall MarketSource: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.In our analysis last week, we anticipated a healthy retracement for Bitcoin before its next upward movement. Last Thursday, Bitcoin experienced a mini rally, climbing from $94,000 to $97,400 before retesting the $94,000 support level over the weekend. After establishing solid support above $93,500, Bitcoin began its next upward leg, bolstered by a bullish risk environment driven by the initial trade talks between the US and China in Geneva, Switzerland, this week.Cryptocurrencies, as risk-sensitive assets, remain heavily influenced by macroeconomic headlines. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed his first official meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng following President Trump’s imposition of a 125% tariff on Chinese imports. The market interpreted this dialogue as a constructive step toward trade negotiation progress, with analysts seeking further indications of de-escalation and clarity on future outcomes.On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain its interest rate at 4.50%, as widely anticipated. Fed Chair Powell reiterated the "wait and see" approach, highlighting the challenges of achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices amid the ongoing trade war. He indicated that the Federal Reserve would prioritize its targets based on prevailing conditions. Powell expressed confidence in the US economy, suggesting that the Fed is well-positioned to keep interest rates steady.The Fed's stance is relatively hawkish, leading to a further decline in the probability of a rate cut in June and July. The market currently anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut following the September meeting. Additionally, US President Trump announced on Truth Social that he would unveil details of a major trade deal on Thursday morning Eastern time. While the market speculates that the deal may involve the United Kingdom, specifics remain undisclosed. This announcement has improved risk sentiment, triggering short covering in crypto assets. Bitcoin surged past $99,000, approaching the psychological $100,000 barrier we highlighted last week.Ethereum has demonstrated stronger momentum, with the ETH/BTC pair rebounding from recent lows. Following the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade on the Ethereum network, we anticipate robust short-term demand for ETH. With Bitcoin dominance at 65%, we expect a shift in the uptrend, allowing altcoins to gain prominence. Given Ethereum's position as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap and having a stronger impact on the crypto market cap dominance, we believe the rise in Ethereum's market cap, driven by its price increase, will reduce Bitcoin's dominance.Our desk maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin in the near term, supported by the strong $94,000 level, and anticipates a challenge to the $100,000 barrier soon. We are even more optimistic about Ethereum following the Pectra upgrade, projecting a sharp ETH/BTC rebound in the coming days. This ETH strength is likely to catalyze broader altcoin gains, reducing Bitcoin’s market cap dominance. However, as previously noted, risk sentiment remains highly susceptible to tariff-related headlines, which could shift dramatically if negotiations deteriorate.Bitcoin ETF TrackerThe above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.This is a new section we have in our weekly commentary. This table helps us monitor the capital inflow data from the Bitcoin spot ETF venue. Following two weeks of substantial net inflows, which saw $3.06 billion for the week ending April 25 and an additional $1.81 billion for the week ending May 2, we witnessed a significant capital influx on Monday. This influx included $425 million invested in Bitcoin spot ETFs. Such a considerable investment in Bitcoin ETFs reflects an increasing interest from traditional finance investors in Bitcoin. This trend suggests a shift in market sentiment towards a more risk-on approach, as investors are increasing their capital allocations to this digital asset. Consequently, this positive momentum has positively impacted the Bitcoin price, which rose from $94,000 to $97,000.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (25-05-01)The Bank of Japan held its interest rate steady at 0.5%, aligning with market predictions. However, it substantially lowered its economic growth outlook, pointing to U.S. tariffs and sluggish export activity as key constraints on near-term monetary policy flexibility.In the U.S., initial jobless claims climbed to 241,000, up from 223,000 the prior week, surpassing the expected 224,000.The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April came in at 50.2, below the projected 50.7, signaling modest growth.The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 48.7, outperforming the forecast of 48.0, though it remained below the 50 threshold, indicating continued contraction in the sector.Last Friday (25-05-02)The Eurozone’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth for April is estimated at 2.2%, slightly above the anticipated 2.1%. Core CPI growth is projected at 2.7%, exceeding the expected 2.5%.The Eurozone unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% in March, marginally higher than the forecasted 6.1%.In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls grew by 177,000 jobs in April, well above the predicted 138,000.The U.S. unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations.On Monday (25-05-05)The U.S. S&P Global Services PMI for April recorded 50.8, falling short of the expected 51.4 and down from March’s 54.4.In contrast, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in April, topping the forecast of 50.2, reflecting expansion in the services sector.On Wednesday (25-05-07)The Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, as widely expected. In the subsequent press conference, Chair Powell emphasized a cautious “wait and see” approach, highlighting the difficulty of managing persistent inflation and increasing unemployment, both intensified by elevated tariffs.Why trade OTC?  Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email: [email protected] for more information.Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!