Public Optimism, Private Bitcoin Selling

Tyler Winklevoss says extreme pessimism makes him optimistic about crypto’s future. Yet behind the scenes, wallets linked to Gemini’s family office have been steadily reducing Bitcoin exposure during one of the market’s most fragile periods.

As volatility grips the industry and sentiment sinks toward cycle lows, Gemini appears to be quietly de-risking — even as some corporate giants double down on BTC.

Wallets attributed to Winklevoss Capital show Bitcoin holdings declining from roughly 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to fewer than 11,000 BTC by February 2026 — a near 50% reduction over 12 months. The steady trimming comes as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum and liquidity conditions tighten across markets.

Gemini is not alone. Bitcoin miner Bitdeer recently liquidated its entire BTC treasury, signaling that even crypto-native firms are prioritizing balance sheet flexibility over long-term exposure.

Yet there are still some companies who have decided to double down on their bitcoin acquisitions. Such is the strategy of MicroStrategy, which continues to accumulate Bitcoin and now holds more than 700,000 BTC. While some firms are selling into volatility, Microstrategy is treating the downturn as a buying opportunity.

The divergence highlights a growing split within the industry: de-risk or double down.

A Costly Reset Behind the Scenes

Gemini’s Bitcoin reduction comes alongside mounting operational pressure.

According to its latest filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the exchange expects 2025 net revenue between $165 million and $175 million, up from $141 million in 2024. Monthly transacting users are projected to rise 17% year-over-year to around 600,000.

But expenses are climbing far faster.

Operating costs are expected to surge to between $520 million and $530 million, compared with $308 million the prior year. That widening gap between revenue and expenses underscores why the company has moved aggressively to restructure.

In early February, Gemini announced plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce and exit the United Kingdom, European Union and Australia to focus on the US and Singapore. Less than two weeks later, the exchange parted ways with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer. Cameron Winklevoss will absorb many of those responsibilities as interim executives step into key roles.

At the same time, Gemini’s share of global spot trading volume has reportedly fallen to around 0.1%, down sharply from approximately 0.6% in mid-2025. Since its public listing, the company’s valuation has slid from nearly $4 billion to under $700 million.

Just recently, the exchange announced the release of their proprietary prediction markets platform, stating that this platform will be the new face of the exchange-signaling a strategic shift away from reliance on spot trading revenues into the prediction market landscape.

Crypto at a Crossroads

Gemini’s recalibration is unfolding during one of the darkest sentiment stretches of the cycle. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded multiple weeks of outflows, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has sunk into extreme fear territory, and retail search interest around Bitcoin collapse narratives has spiked.

Against that backdrop, the divergence in corporate behavior stands out. Some firms, like Bitdeer and Winklevoss Capital, are trimming Bitcoin exposure to preserve capital and manage volatility. Others, led by Strategy, remain aggressively long and publicly unwavering in their conviction.

For Gemini, the tension between bullish rhetoric and defensive balance sheet moves reflects a broader industry dilemma: ideological commitment versus financial pragmatism.

Whether this reset positions Gemini for a leaner comeback — or signals a deeper retreat — will likely depend on whether Bitcoin stabilizes and liquidity returns. Until then, the gap between words and wallets will remain under scrutiny.