Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a long-term downturn, but new areas such as RWA and on-chain prediction markets will emerge.

In a report, Cantor Fitzgerald stated that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged downturn, but this could be a prelude to a more stable, institutionally driven phase for the crypto industry. Analyst Brett Knoblauch noted in his year-end report that the market may be in the early stages of a crypto winter, echoing Bitcoin's historical four-year cycles. Currently, Bitcoin is about 85 days from its peak, and the price may remain under pressure for months, potentially even testing the Strategy (MSTR) average break-even price of around $75,000. Knoblauch stated that unlike previous downturns, this correction may not be defined by large-scale liquidations or structural failures. Institutional participants, rather than retail investors, are shaping the market profile, and there is a gap between token price performance and the actual progress of decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure. The report shows that the tokenized value of on-chain real-world assets (RWA), such as credit products, US Treasuries, and stocks, has tripled this year, reaching $18.5 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald predicts this amount could exceed $50 billion by 2026. Furthermore, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) within DApps are gaining market share from centralized platforms due to improvements in infrastructure and user experience. Cantor Fitzgerald predicts that while trading volume may decline in 2026 as Bitcoin prices fall, DEX trading, particularly perpetual contracts, will continue to grow. The passage of the U.S. Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act (CLARITY) is seen as a turning point, as it clarifies the definition of digital assets as securities or commodities. Other trends highlighted by Cantor Fitzgerald include the rise of on-chain prediction markets, particularly in sports betting, where trading volume has increased to over $5.9 billion. Companies such as Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Gemini (GEMI) have entered the space. Despite the risks and the fact that Bitcoin's price is only about 17% higher than the average cost of strategy, Cantor Fitzgerald believes that despite a cooling price, more durable infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption are consolidating. (CoinDesk)