Polymarket Predicts Low Probability of Powell Leaving Fed Board by May 30

According to Odaily, the probability of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stepping down from the Fed Board by May 30 has significantly decreased to 9%, marking a 25% drop in the past 24 hours. Additionally, the likelihood of Powell leaving the board by December 31 has fallen to 66%, an 11% decrease over the same period. The contract rules for this event specify that if Powell is no longer a member of the Federal Reserve Board at any time before 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the target date, the outcome will be considered 'yes.' Otherwise, it will be 'no.' If Powell steps down as chairman but remains on the board, it does not meet the criteria for a 'yes' outcome. The determination is based on information released by the U.S. government, though consensus from credible reports can also serve as a basis. In a press conference this morning, Powell stated that he would continue to serve as a Fed board member "for a while" after stepping down as chairman and promised to "remain low-key." U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant commented that Powell's decision to stay on the board would be unusual, noting that it contradicts traditional norms for someone who has consistently emphasized regulation.