Raoul Pal: “This Is Not a Bear Market — A Liquidity Supercycle Is Coming in 2026” at Binance Blockchain Week Dubai
At Binance Blockchain Week Dubai 2025, Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal delivered one of the most anticipated macro discussions of the conference — a 20-minute rapid-fire masterclass on liquidity, risk cycles, altcoins, and the signals he says will define where markets move in 2026.Speaking with Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin, Pal argued against the dominant sentiment circulating on Crypto Twitter: “No, this is not the start of a bear market. It’s a correction inside an ongoing bull market.”Below are the key insights, signals, and warnings from Pal’s high-conviction macro thesis — which he says will either be confirmed or disproven as early as January and February.“Liquidity Explains 90% of Bitcoin’s Price — And 2026 Will Be a Liquidity Explosion”Pal’s central argument is simple:Bitcoin moves with global liquidity, not with the four-year halving myth.“This four-year cycle handed down from Satoshi isn’t some law of nature. Liquidity drives this market — and global liquidity is about to surge.”He outlined several forces converging simultaneously:The Trump administration’s 2026 fiscal stimulus packageMassive money printing through regulatory mechanismsChanges to banking leverage rules (SLR) forcing banks to absorb more TreasuriesA weaker U.S. dollar beginning in early 2026Term repo facilities injecting fresh liquidity into the financial systemThe surprise:These policies begin activating in January — not later in the year.If Pal is right, Bitcoin and the broader market should reflect this quickly:“If January and February are not strong months, my thesis is wrong. But everything is lining up exactly for strength.”“Sentiment Is the Most Washed Out I’ve Seen — That’s Bullish, Not Bearish”Pal pushed back against the narrative that recent sell-offs signal the end of a cycle.Key reasoning:Bitcoin hit new highs; almost nothing else did.OGs sold, ETFs saw temporary outflows, and sentiment collapsed.But historically, deep sentiment resets inside bull markets are normal — including Bitcoin’s 50% crash in mid-2021 before reaching new all-time highs.“How can this be a bear market when almost no assets went to new highs yet?This is a correction — the main cycle hasn’t even happened.”What Retail Should Watch: The Public Signals of a Liquidity TurnFor traders and long-term investors, Pal highlighted macro indicators to monitor:Global M2 growthA weakening U.S. dollarPolicy shifts from the U.S. Treasury & Federal ReserveBanking regulation changes like SLR adjustmentsHe emphasized that these obscure-sounding regulatory changes are massive catalysts:“Lowering risk weights on Treasuries lets banks buy unlimited amounts of bonds.That is liquidity creation. That’s fuel.”Altcoin Season: Why It Hasn’t Happened — And Why Pal Says It WillMany attendees echoed the same question:“Where is altcoin season?”Pal’s answer:Altcoins, like small-cap equities, are driven by the business cycle — specifically the ISM manufacturing index.Once ISM crosses 50 to the upside, risk appetite explodes.With fiscal and monetary stimulus coming, Pal expects:ISM turning positiveA resurgence of risk appetiteCapital rotating aggressively down the crypto risk curve“When that happens, Bitcoin dominance collapses and the smart-contract platforms run.That’s the start of altseason.”The AI Trade vs. Crypto: Will Altcoins Be Ignored?Pal addressed a common skepticism:Why buy altcoins when AI equities like NVIDIA dominate returns?His response:Retail investors chase the highest potential upside — and altcoins still offer asymmetric returns AI stocks cannot match:“If Bitcoin can do 2x, an altcoin can do 10x.Retail will always chase that.”He added that AI is already heavily funded by institutions, while crypto remains underallocated.Dilution, New Tokens & Unlocks: Will They Kill Altseason?“No,” Pal said clearly.Mass issuance is outweighed by a much larger force:The scale of global capital entering crypto for the first time.“Every cycle, the inflows get bigger. That dwarfs token unlocks.The real challenge is not dilution — it’s choosing quality.”Raoul Pal’s Framework for Picking AltcoinsPal rarely invests in small-cap tokens directly. His approach is strictly high-level and disciplined:1. Stick primarily to major L1sBitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, plus a few emerging L1s like Sui.2. Track real network metricsThe two most important:Active usersValue transactedNot hype — real activity.3. Benchmark everything to Solana“If your altcoin isn’t outperforming Solana, you are destroying capital.”4. Only rotate when both metrics and price structure confirmPal watches:Weekly and monthly chartsBasing patternsBreakouts validated by fundamentalsThis is why he rotated from Solana to Sui early in the cycle:“Sui’s network is one of the fastest-growing.The data and the chart aligned — that’s when you act.”Narratives for 2026: The Ones That MatterPal cautioned that recent narrative rotations (“mining coins,” “DeFi rounds,” “ZCash moment”) were just capital recycling, not true adoption.His real 2026 narratives:AI + crypto (the real version, not hype spikes)Stablecoins & settlement networksHigh-throughput L1s (Solana, Sui, Avalanche, Near)Digital art & NFTs as contrarian bets“Don’t F* This Up”: Raoul Pal’s 2026 Playbook**Pal closed with a blunt warning:Retail investors lose money because they:FOMO into rotationsOvertradeChase returnsUse leverageAbandon high-quality assets for speculationHis rule:**Hold BTC, ETH, SOL, or a basket of major L1s.Don’t use leverage.Limit degen plays to 5–10%.**“If people simply held a basket of high-quality assets,they would outperform 99.9% of short-term traders.”Pal’s Final Call: “2026 Will Be the Year of the Yellow Fruit”A reference to the banana-yellow Binance theme spreading across the arena, Pal hinted that 2026 could be one of crypto’s strongest market expansions ever.“If my thesis is right, this will be one of the biggest liquidity cycles we’ve seen.Just don’t mess it up.”
