Bitcoin News: Bitcoin ETFs Pull in $411 Million as BTC Hits $75,600, But Analysts Warn Rally Faces Key Risks
Key Takeaways
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $411 million in inflows on Tuesday, the second-largest daily inflow of April behind the $471 million recorded on April 6, per SoSoValueBitcoin surged from around $68,100 on April 1 to a high of $75,600 on Tuesday, a gain of over 10%, before pulling back to around $73,860HashKey Group's Tim Sun attributes the rally to easing geopolitical tensions and a significant rebound in net market liquidity since early AprilAnalysts warn of downside risks including US tax season portfolio rebalancing and a potential Treasury General Account refill that could drain liquidity from risk assetsPrediction market Myriad puts the probability of Bitcoin's next major move being a pump to $84,000 at 59%, down from 64% a day earlier
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $411 million in inflows on Tuesday, their second-largest single-day haul of April, as Bitcoin briefly touched $75,600 before pulling back -- a rally analysts attribute to improving macro conditions but view with caution given persistent structural risks.
The inflow figure, sourced from SoSoValue, trails only the $471 million recorded on April 6 this month. Bitcoin has gained over 10% since April 1, climbing from approximately $68,100 to Tuesday's high of $75,600 according to CoinGecko data. The asset has since retreated roughly 1%, trading around $73,860 at time of reporting.
Two Drivers Behind the Move
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, identified two primary catalysts for the rally. "A temporary easing of geopolitical conflicts, which spurred a marginal recovery in global risk appetite and a substantive improvement in the liquidity environment," Sun said, adding that a significant rebound in net market liquidity since early April lifted traditional risk assets including the S&P 500 alongside Bitcoin. "Consequently, the combination of recovering risk appetite and warming liquidity pushed Bitcoin rapidly above $75,000," he said.
The improved sentiment is visible across derivatives metrics. The Coinbase premium indicator, which tracks demand from US investors, has remained positive since April 8. An improved 25 delta skew also points to easing selling pressure from options market participants.
Analysts Urge Caution
Despite the headline inflow numbers and price gains, derivatives traders are not convinced the move marks the start of a sustained uptrend. Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, said the broader market context remains fragile. "The market still looks weak and unstable, more consistent with a bearish or transitional phase than a strong uptrend," he said, adding that expectations for large, sustained moves "should remain low" and that investor sentiment should stay "cautious."
Prediction market Myriad reflects the mixed picture, with users currently pricing a 59% probability that Bitcoin's next major move is a pump to $84,000 -- down from 64% just a day earlier. The probability of a spring crypto rally has risen to 51%, up from 35% on April 1.
Liquidity Risks Loom
Two near-term headwinds could cap upside. First, US tax season, typically running through mid-to-late April, historically prompts portfolio rebalancing that can suppress risk asset gains. Second, Sun flagged a potential Treasury General Account refill as a structural liquidity risk. "The Treasury will once again withdraw liquidity from the market system, potentially suppressing high-elasticity risk assets like Bitcoin," he said, noting that the TGA balance is likely to return above $1 trillion based on Treasury financing patterns.
If the $73,000–$75,000 range holds and downside risks remain contained, Sun identifies $79,000 as the next key level to watch.