Bitcoin Options Expiry Approaches Amid Strategic Trading Moves
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) traders are preparing for the significant year-end options expiry, set for December 26 at 8:00 am UTC. This event involves $8.8 billion in options, with over $1 billion becoming active if Bitcoin surpasses $200,000. However, the likelihood of such a rally remains low, with less than a 3% chance of profit for $200,000 call options. The current open interest for call options stands at $6.45 billion, while put options trail at $2.36 billion, indicating a preference for bullish positions. Despite this, bearish traders seem comfortable with Bitcoin staying below $120,000.
Professional traders employ strategies like the Call Diagonal Spread, which involves buying a $200,000 December call and selling a $200,000 call with an earlier expiry, typically in October. This strategy profits if Bitcoin exceeds $146,000 by October 31, allowing the long-dated call to appreciate while the short-term call expires worthless. However, Bitcoin prices above $200,000 could negatively impact this strategy, with potential losses capped at BTC 0.005, approximately $585 at current prices, and maximum gains at BTC 0.0665, roughly $7,750.
Another strategy, the Inverse Call Butterfly, involves buying one $140,000 call, selling two $160,000 calls, and buying one $200,000 call—all with December expiries. This position profits most if Bitcoin lands near $160,000 on December 26, netting BTC 0.112, around $13,050. Losses begin if Bitcoin climbs past $178,500, though the $200,000 call helps cap potential losses at 0.109 BTC, or approximately $12,700.
Despite the sizable open interest in $200,000 call options, traders are not necessarily expecting Bitcoin to reach that level. Nearly $900 million in put options are positioned between $50,000 and $80,000 for the December expiry, indicating bearish bets are also in play, albeit with lower odds. The $140,000 call is priced around BTC 0.051, implying a 21% probability based on the Black-Scholes model, while the $200,000 call trades at BTC 0.007, reflecting an implied probability below 3%. These aggressive strike prices may attract attention, but the data suggests traders are using far-out-of-the-money calls within structured strategies that offer limited risk and leveraged upside. According to Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 this year are higher at 13%.
