作者：Nancy Lubale，CoinTelegraph；编译：邓通，金色财经
市场近期一直等待特朗普总统的百日演讲，比特币价格盘整。
自4月22日以来，已有超过47亿美元的比特币从交易所撤出，导致供应减少，价格对需求的敏感度上升。
特朗普的加密货币政策清晰化可能引发比特币价格飙升，但关税措施可能会限制涨幅。
交易员表示，比特币价格必须突破95,000美元以上的关键阻力位，才能继续上涨至100,000美元甚至更高。
在特朗普百日纪念集会前夕，BTC 价格在 91,700 美元至 95,850 美元之间窄幅盘整。
BTC/USD 日线图。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普今日发表百日演讲。在特朗普发表演讲之前，比特币投资者采取了观望态度。
迄今为止，加密货币相关政策在特朗普的第二任期内一直占据突出地位，但市场仍在等待其经济政策中关于加密货币的具体监管更新。
特朗普政府关于战略性比特币储备计划的明确性，可能促使比特币价格升至10万美元。然而，对关税的重新关注或大幅削减预算可能会对更广泛的市场造成压力，并在短期内限制比特币的上涨空间。
此前，加密货币博彩平台Polymarket预测，特朗普在百日演讲中提及“加密货币”或“比特币”的可能性为24%。该平台的数据显示，用户已为此次演讲投入了超过100万美元的赌注。
Polymarket 预测特朗普百日演讲内容的赔率。来源：Polymarket
特朗普的言论可能会像过去一样，引发短期价格飙升。例如，比特币近期从 74,400 美元反弹至 94,000 美元，部分原因是特朗普表示，对中国商品的关税“将大幅降低”。
虽然特朗普的讲话可能会激发乐观情绪并推高价格，但更广泛的市场动态，包括关税和全球贸易紧张局势，可能会抑制涨势，正如近期加密货币市场的波动所示。
除了特朗普的因素外，比特币在交易所的供应量下降也支撑了比特币价格上涨至10万美元的看涨预期。
自宏观经济紧张局势缓解引发市场全面反弹以来，投资者已从交易所撤出超过50,500枚比特币（价值47亿美元）。
交易所的比特币储备。来源：CryptoQuant
交易所供应量减少导致可供出售的 BTC 减少，从而增强了价格对需求的敏感度，而这种敏感度在特朗普讲话后可能会上升。
Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据显示，过去七天，比特币价格一直在 96,000 美元下方盘整。
著名比特币分析师 AlphaBTC 在 4 月 29 日 X 上的一篇帖子中表示：“BTC 正在缓慢压缩，并在 96,000 美元阻力位下方创下新的低点。”
正如 Cointelegraph 报道，95,000 美元的水平是多头需要突破的关键阻力位，才能确保价格反弹。
AlphaBTC 断言：“尝试突破 95,000 美元的次数越多，突破的可能性就越大。” 他还补充道，此次挤压很可能将比特币推向备受追捧的 100,000 美元水平。
“我预计会有更大幅度的回调，但可能要等到突破 100,000 美元后才会出现。”
BTC/USD 30分钟图。资料来源：AlphaBTC
另一位分析师 Daan Crypto Trades 也发表了类似的观察，他表示：“BTC 价格在回落至先前区间后，过去几天再次受到挤压。”
Daan Crypto Trades 认为，下行方面需要关注的一个关键水平是 89,500 美元至 91,000 美元区间内的 200 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)。
该分析师解释说，主要阻力位是 99,5000 美元的局部高点和“10 万美元的心理关口”，并补充道：“从中期来看，这些都是值得关注的水平。目前，我们只需静观其短期内的走势。”
BTC/USD 日线图。资料来源：Daan Crypto Trades
据报道，健康的市场基本面可能推动比特币价格突破 10 万美元，创下历史新高。
与此同时，量化交易公司 Presto 的研究主管 Peter Chung 重申了他的预测，即比特币价格将在 2025 年达到 21 万美元。
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