作者：Brayden Lindrea，CoinTelegraph；编译：五铢，金色财经
彭博交易所交易基金 (ETF) 分析师预测，美国证券监管机构在今年年底前批准现货莱特币 ETF 的可能性为 90%。
彭博的 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 认为，莱特币在 2025 年获批的可能性高于目前提出的其他 ETF，包括现货 XRP、SOl、Dogecoin ETF——他们认为这些 ETF 的获批概率分别为 65%、70% 和 75%。
莱特币于 2011 年作为比特币的更快替代品而诞生，它与比特币采用类似的工作量证明共识机制。
两人在 X 上发帖称，莱特币获得美国证券交易委员会批准的道路可能是最直接的，因为 S-1 和 19b-4 表格已经提交并得到承认，而美国证券交易委员会也可能将其视为一种商品。
争夺 SEC 批准的候选加密 ETF 名单。资料来源：James Seyffart
Farside Investors 的数据显示，随着现货比特币和以太坊 ETF 的强劲需求，加密货币 ETF 的竞争愈演愈烈。自 2024 年 1 月和 7 月推出以来，这两种 ETF 的净流入量分别达到 407 亿美元和 31.8 亿美元。
虽然 Seyffart 认为莱特币 ETF 不会吸引那么多的需求，但他表示，在某些情况下，对于资金只有 5000 万美元的基金公司来说，这仍然是值得的。
Seyffart 指出：“从发行人的角度来看，他们不必在流动性方面取得巨大成功，也能获得价值。”
Seyffart 的图表显示，SEC 对莱特币、Solana、XRP 和狗狗币 ETF 做出决定的最后期限是 10 月 2 日至 10 月 18 日。Seyffart 表示，莱特币 ETF 可能会在此之前推出。
Seyffart 和 Balchunas 还承认，Canary Capital 和 21Shares 已提交 Hedera 和 Polkadot 的 ETF，但截至撰写本文时尚未公布任何批准概率。
Seyffart 表示，还可能会有更多加密货币 ETF 被提出。
“发行人将尝试推出许多不同的东西，看看哪些能成功，”Seyffart 说。
“从长远来看，你可能会看到大量持有数字资产的 ETF，而那些没有获得利息或资金流动的 ETF 将会被清算。”
Balchunas 指出，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于 2024 年 11 月 5 日赢得美国大选之前，所有这些加密货币 ETF（莱特币除外）的胜算都低于 5%。
与此同时，Solana 和 XRP 的安全状态仍存在疑问，Seyffart 预测，在美国证券交易委员会对 Ripple 的诉讼完全解决之前，XRP ETF 不会获得批准。
2023 年 8 月，Ripple 取得了部分胜利，当时裁定 XRP 在二级市场上出售时不属于证券——然而，SEC 对这一判决提出上诉，声称 Ripple 在向散户投资者出售 XRP 时违反了证券法。
然而，这些行动是在 Gary Gensler 领导的 SEC 下采取的，Ripple 现在希望由代理主席 Mark Uyeda 领导的新 SEC 领导层能够撤回执法案件。
Seyffart 上个月表示，在 SEC 能够在“商品 ETF 包装”下分析 Solana 之前，Solana 的安全状态也需要得到解决。
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