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币安 Alpha 牛市：一场做市商主导的单边游戏
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作者：Bennie 来源：X，@0xBenniee
在当下降息周期流动性尚未充足的市场环境中，Binance Alpha的牛市仍在不断上演：一个不出名的项目，往往能在短时间内默默拉出数倍的涨幅。
本文将从做市商的角度来聊一聊首发 Alpha + Perp 的做市策略，以及mm的内心独白，做到”与庄共舞“。
Binance Alpha 相当于一个天然的流动性池，首发当天能够集中巨大的注意力与散户资源，同时还会吸引一批 Alpha 的原生用户参与交易——他们可能选择砸盘，也可能选择买入，每一个“Alpha 打工人”都在从自己的视角下注。
但如果我们切换到 项目方与做市商的视角，内心想法其实更直接：我已经付出 1–2% 的筹码成本，上线 Alpha，还额外花费代价开通 Perp，交了这么多“保护费”，后续弃盘的概率较低。
于是我们看到了后续的“Alpha 链上牛市”。事实上，单靠 Alpha 现货市场，很难完成大规模派发。庄家与做市商必须借助 Perp，通过不断提升 OI 来吸引更多散户入场，把这场交易变成一桌“赌场”。
如今的项目逻辑已经不同于过去的“叙事驱动”，而是彻底转变为资金驱动：谁有更厚的筹码，谁就能拉出更猛的行情；只要有足够多的赌客入场，做市商就能不断制造波动，从中攫取利润。
总结如下
Alpha 提供天然的注意力池和首发用户基盘；
Perp则是庄家/做市商提高 OI 吸引流量的核心工具。
对于做市商来说，首发日的关键逻辑就是：
Alpha → 吸筹+建仓；
Perp→ 拉盘+派发。
「以首发新币为例，看一下做市商是怎么通过Alpha+Perp获取利润的」
Alpha 上线时间是 8:00 (UTC)，Perp上线时间是 10:30，中间留给做市商收货的窗口只有两个半小时。这段时间实际上就是做市商和散户抢筹码的阶段，主动mm会硬着头皮接货，如果这部分筹码被大量 free-rider 散户抢走，那么后续做市商的拉盘成本就会提高。
(从市场情况来看，Alpha 上的主要做市力量多以主动 MM 为主。根据行业普遍推测，其配资规模通常在数百万美元区间，而现货端的流动性供给相对充足。)
Perp上线之后，做市商会通过推高 OI（未平仓量）来吸引更多散户入场，把这场博弈变成一张“越坐越热闹的赌桌”。Perp 的核心作用并不仅仅是提供对冲工具，而是放大市场注意力与交易参与度。
与此同时，做市商往往会配合相关的 KOL 投放与一些利好消息或者上所的市场营销PR，进一步制造话题与热度，吸引更多目光。无论是做多还是做空，本质上都在为市场贡献流动性，这也为庄家提供了更大的操盘空间和更充足的利润来源。
如图所示，Perp 上线后 OI 很快被推高，并在高位保持稳定。早期阶段，庄家通常不会选择通过大幅拉升或暴力砸盘来完成出货. 原因在于：如果过早砸盘，筹码很可能无法以相同甚至更低的成本接回，反而会抬高自己的整体拉盘成本。庄家的核心目标是把筹码尽可能在高位完全交给散户，确保派发顺利完成。
在拉升过程中，资金费率往往能提供关键参考。通过观察资金费率的变化，庄家可以判断市场情绪是否过热，并在此基础上进行细节优化。例如，当资金费率异常飙升时，做市商可以利用期现对冲或短期资金费率套利来降低持仓成本，进一步提升整体收益。
现货全在做市商的手里，只要做市商不砸盘，通过资金费率市场，在 9/12–9/15 拉升阶段，OI 持续提高，资金费率多次飙升，
峰值：0.3–0.4% / 4h（折算年化约 270%–360%）；
均值：0.1–0.2% / 4h（折算年化约 90%–180%）。
这意味着，做市商在合约市场上建立对冲空单，一边在现货市场接货，就能持续吃到资金费率，形成稳定的套利现金流，作为优化成本的重要手段。
在 9/16，当 OI 维持高位且多头仓位积压严重时，庄家选择大幅砸盘，现货派发的同时空单盈利：
价格从 0.058 → 0.035，跌幅约 40%；
庄家成本区间 0.015–0.02，出货均价约 0.045–0.05；
单笔利润率约 +150%–200%。
（在理想情况下，其实还有链上流动性池的收益并未计入整体测算。不同做市商的具体策略也不大相同。）
与庄共舞的几个要点
前期如果看到项目高度控盘、社区 FUD 较多，往往值得多加关注；而大满贯类项目因为筹码结构复杂，本身就更难推演清楚,需谨慎参与。
首日若能同时上线 Alpha+Perp，通常意味着流动性充足，价格波动也会更剧烈。
尝试推算庄家在每一波拉升与回调中的盈利情况，有助于理解其操盘逻辑。
Alpha 开盘时可以留意 Pancake V3 的定价，如果开盘价格过高，或许等待一个更合适的节奏会更稳妥。
结语
Alpha+Perp的首发模式，正在重塑当下的市场格局。表面上，这是一个叙事驱动的新币牛市，但实际上，它更像是一场由做市商导演的结构化博弈。Alpha 提供了筹码沉淀与初始流量，Perp 放大了流动性与波动性，而 OI 与资金费率则成为庄家操盘的关键工具。散户或许能从中捕捉到短期机会，但更重要的是要理解这背后的逻辑：行情能走多远，并不取决于故事有多动人，而取决于资金有多厚、节奏有多精准。
了解更多行业报道，与作者、读者更深入探讨、交流，欢迎加入Coinlive社群：https://t.me/CoinliveSG
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