在提供对数字资产的间接曝光方面，灰度比特币无疑是比特币领域的游戏规则改变者。然而，这只基金的成败近来一直让投资者咬牙切齿。随着 Three Arrows Capital (3AC) 的倒闭，该基金的折价进一步加深，给投资者带来了糟糕的结果和可能的机会。
3AC 的崩盘已在比特币领域得到广泛分析。在一系列投资出现问题（即 Terra 崩溃）后，领先的加密货币管理基金发现自己陷入了困境。鉴于 3AC 在 Grayscale GBTC 中持有大量股份，其倒闭对该基金产生了不利影响。
GBTC 在一年的大部分时间里一直在折价交易，但随着 3AC 崩盘，这种折价变得更大了。据报道，这家管理公司是最大股东，持有 3890 万股。这也是 3AC 试图用来减轻公司倒闭的投资之一。
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在美国证券交易委员会决定批准或拒绝 Grayscale ETF 申请之前，3AC 早些时候曾试图套利 GBTC 的折扣。当崩溃迫在眉睫时，它曾试图将其股权出售给外部投资者。基本上，3AC 提出他们可以做多 GBTC，然后通过做空比特币来为其提供对冲，这将通过收取 20% 的绩效费来促进。
GBTC 折扣增长至 34% |来源：奥术研究
目前尚不清楚 3AC 目前对 GBTC 的投资规模，但据报道这是一个很大的头寸。没有关于 3AC 是否能够成功卸载给外部投资者并执行交易的报道，但它对基金的影响是相当公开的。在 3AC 崩溃后，GBTC 目前以 34% 的折扣交易。
GBTC 折价幅度如此之大，为投资者提供了难得的机会。众所周知，传统金融领域的一些投资者想要分一杯羹，但不愿意直接接触数字资产本身。因此，以 34% 的折扣交易的 GBTC 为长期投资打开了机会。
Grayscale 的年度管理费目前为 2%。因此，其目前 34% 的折扣是不可持续的。它目前向美国证券交易委员会提交的 ETF 申请预计会被拒绝，但要让该基金保持这样的折扣，其 ETF 申请将需要在 20 年内反复被拒绝，而这种情况不太可能发生。因此，以这样的价格买入基本上是投资者积累的机会。
GBTC 折扣随着 BTC 价格的挣扎而增长 |来源：TradingView.com 上的 BTCUSD
然而，还应注意的是，虽然预计 ETF 申请会被拒绝，但批准也是可能的结果。如果是后者，那将是不利的，因为这实际上会给卖家带来压力，因为基金会将其视为在现金中性多头 GBTC 和空头 BTC 交易中进行大规模套利的机会。因此，现在拒绝 ETF 申请符合 GBTC 投资者的最大利益。
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SEC 批准 ETF 的截止日期是 7 月 6 日，星期三，大约两周后。 Bitwise 判决将在此之前一周发生，因此 SEC 对此的决定很可能实际上表明了 Grayscale 的决定。
来自 CryptoPotato 的特色图片，来自 Arcane Research 和 TradingView.com 的图表
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