乙醚（以太币 ) 多头喜欢其现货和 ETH 期货价格之间的正价差，因为所谓的contango 反映了对更高利率的乐观情绪 将来。但截至 8 月 1 日，以太坊期货曲线向相反方向下滑。
在日线图上，原定于 2022 年 12 月到期的以太坊期货季度合约已滑入贴水 ，与期货溢价相反的情况，其中期货价格低于现货价格。
8 月 1 日，以太坊现货和期货价格之间的价差扩大至 - 8 美元。
一方面，当前的 ETH 现货价格高于其年底前景似乎是一个看跌信号。然而，围绕以太币现货和期货价格之间当前负价差的情况表明，交易员实际上可能看好以太币。
例如，比特币（比特币 ) 以来上涨了 15%6月下旬期货进入现货升水 一年来第一次。
此外，一个 潜在的链分裂 据一些分析师称，在 9 月份合并之前可能会看涨。
Genesis Trading 前机构借贷副总裁 Roshun Patel 指出，由于以太坊的“分叉几率”，12 月的以太坊期货已经转为现货溢价，这可能会促使交易员在 Merge 之前购买现货 ETH。
与此同时，Patel 暗示交易员可以通过看跌 12 月期货合约来抵消他们的上行现货风险。
12 月转向 ETH 现货溢价，开始以分叉几率定价。回到 2020 年，bchabc 分叉的玩法是买入现货并做空夸脱pic.twitter.com/Oyde1htnz8
— Roshun Patel (@roshunpatel)2022 年 7 月 31 日
该声明随后发布Galois Capital 对 Merge 的调查 .在 7 月 28 日的推特民意调查中，这家加密货币对冲基金询问其追随者合并是否会结束分裂以太坊链 分为工作量证明 (PoW) ETH1 和权益证明 (PoS) ETH2。
在受访者中，33.1% 表示升级会导致硬分叉，而 53.7% 预计网络会平稳过渡。
问题 1：合并期间发生了什么？如果选项 2 或 3，请转到问题 2-5。
- Galois Capital (@Galois_Capital)2022 年 7 月 27 日
以太坊潜在的链分裂意味着 ETH 持有者将在两条链上拥有等量的代币。换句话说，一个空投 赠款 ETH 持有者持有相同数量的 ETH1 代币，以太坊经典 (ETC ) 2016 年。
以太币现在在 1,650 美元至 1,750 美元的关键阻力线内盘整，该阻力线在 2022 年 5 月至 6 月期间充当支撑。
同时，该代币的 20 天（绿色）和 50 天（红色）指数移动平均线 (EMA) 也形成了“黄金交叉”，表明中期看涨前景。
如果突破 1,650-1,750 美元的阻力位，ETH 可能会将 2,150 美元作为其下一个上行目标。该水平作为 5 月和 6 月的阻力位以及 1 月的支撑位发挥了重要作用。它现在与 2,180 美元附近的 200 天均线（蓝色波浪）重合，比 8 月 1 日的价格上涨了近 30%。
相关： 以太坊合并：PoS 过渡将如何影响 ETH 生态系统？
相反，从阻力线回调可能会使 ETH 暴露于 20 天均线（~15,250 美元）和 50 天均线（1,500 美元）波浪。
此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者个人观点，并不一定反映 Cointelegraph.com 的观点。每一项投资和交易都涉及风险，您在做出决定时应该进行自己的研究。
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