According to PANews, Strategy has acquired 8,178 bitcoins for $835.6 million, with an average purchase price of $102,171 per bitcoin. Despite the current price falling below $90,000, resulting in a paper loss for this batch, the company's overall average cost remains at $74,433, keeping it profitable. It is estimated that 40% of its holdings were acquired below this cost. Harvard Management Company disclosed in its September 30 13F filing that it holds 6.8 million shares of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), valued at $442.9 million, marking a 200% increase from the previous quarter. This makes it the highest-valued holding among its U.S.-listed stocks. Managing $50 billion in assets, the institution's increased investment during a downturn highlights its long-term confidence in digital assets. The increased holdings by these two institutions coincide with a significant market adjustment: financing rates have turned negative, open interest has declined, and short-term holders (wallets acquiring coins within 155 days) have experienced 'on-chain capitulation.' Retail investors have been selling off due to leveraged liquidations and realized losses. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF's monthly market value shrank by $2.57 billion, marking the largest drop since its inception, with outflows concentrated during U.S. trading hours, further pressuring prices. This pattern of retail sell-offs and institutional buying reflects a typical transfer of funds from weaker to stronger investors. On-chain data shows that whale wallets holding over 1,000 bitcoins have continued to accumulate as smaller wallets exit, consistent with early-stage fund redistribution during historical pullbacks. However, it is important to note that wallet labeling relies on blockchain forensics and exchange tags, lacking KYC verification, which limits the accuracy of holding data. CryptoQuant data indicates a deleveraging trend in the derivatives market, with declining open interest and negative funding rates, suggesting more long-term position closures rather than active whale withdrawals. Despite the significant institutional purchases by Strategy and Harvard, they are insufficient to offset the $2.57 billion ETF redemption pressure. If ETF outflows persist until the end of the year or macroeconomic risks escalate, Bitcoin's clearing price could further decline, even with increased holdings by sovereign states and corporations. Strategy's financing strategy allows it to dilute costs over the long term, and Harvard's investment horizon spans a decade, making quarterly pullbacks less impactful. However, retail and leveraged traders lack such buffers. The ultimate nature of this fund redistribution remains uncertain: if ETF outflows stabilize and institutional spot demand continues, it may signal a bottom. Conversely, if outflows and macro pressures intensify, the current accumulation may only be a temporary respite. Bitcoin's drop below $90,000 has filtered out long-term investors who can withstand volatility from speculators sensitive to short-term fluctuations, with the final outcome to be revealed in the coming month's fund flows.
Jixu
Hui Xin
Jasper
Davin