Key Takeaways:U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $240 million in inflows on Thursday — their first positive day since Oct. 28, according to Farside data.The rebound ends a six-day outflow streak, historically associated with local bitcoin bottoms.Despite inflows, ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to erode liquidity and risk appetite across crypto and equities.Bitcoin remains down 11% since Oct. 1, trading below $100,000, while the Nasdaq and gold rose 2% and 4%, respectively.Bitcoin ETFs Turn Positive After Prolonged OutflowsAfter nearly a week of consistent withdrawals, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $240 million in net inflows on Thursday — a signal that institutional investors may be cautiously re-entering the market following the steep sell-off that pushed Bitcoin below $100,000.According to Farside data, Thursday’s inflows mark the first net positive day since October 28, ending a six-day losing streak that had drained over $700 million from the ETF complex. No issuer reported outflows — including funds from BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Ark 21Shares — suggesting a broad-based improvement in sentiment.Historically, periods of persistent ETF outflows have coincided with short-term market bottoms. The longest such stretch to date remains eight consecutive days, which also preceded a recovery in Bitcoin’s spot price earlier this year.Shutdown Pressures Liquidity and Risk AppetiteThe U.S. government shutdown, now in its fifth week, continues to weigh on investor sentiment and liquidity. Since the shutdown began on October 1, bitcoin ETF flows have been mostly negative, with only brief inflow spikes during early October when BTC rallied from $114,000 to $126,000.The broader macro environment remains tense: limited government spending has disrupted data releases, market oversight, and Treasury issuance — all of which suppress short-term risk taking. Bitcoin, often viewed as a high-beta hedge against fiat instability, has instead tracked global risk aversion.Notably, during the 2018–2019 U.S. government shutdown, a similar macro dynamic coincided with Bitcoin’s market bottom near $3,200, before a multi-month recovery.Shutdown Extension Risk LoomsPrediction market Polymarket currently assigns roughly a 50% probability that the shutdown will extend beyond November 16 — an outcome that could deepen market uncertainty.Bitcoin’s ongoing correction, which began on October 6, has now lasted 31 days, with a 21% drawdown from local highs. For comparison, the April tariff-driven sell-off lasted 79 days and saw a 32% drop.If history rhymes, ETF inflows amid macro stress may once again mark the early stages of accumulation. However, analysts caution that persistent liquidity tightening and weak U.S. fiscal visibility could limit near-term upside until policy clarity improves.
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