Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Dead — Monetary Policy, Not Halving, Now Drives the Market, According to Arthur Hayes

Key Takeaways:BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has ended — liquidity policy, not halving events, now drives price cycles.Hayes argues that past bear markets followed global monetary tightening, not pre-set timing.He cites a new era of expanding fiat liquidity, with U.S. and Chinese policy turning supportive.The Federal Reserve is cutting rates, and the U.S. Treasury is injecting liquidity, while Beijing moves to counter deflation.Hayes concludes Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market soon, as monetary expansion fuels the next phase of the bull run.Hayes Declares the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle “Dead”Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, says Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle tied to halving events is no longer relevant.In his latest essay, “Long Live the King!”, Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s market cycles are now dictated by global monetary policy — not time-based halvings or hype-driven narratives.“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” Hayes wrote. “That pattern worked before, but it will fail this time.”According to Hayes, the real driver behind Bitcoin’s booms and busts has always been liquidity — particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).Bitcoin Cycles Are About Liquidity, Not HalvingsHayes explained that each of Bitcoin’s major bull and bear markets aligned with changes in global money supply, not the four-year block reward schedule.2013 Cycle: Fueled by U.S. quantitative easing (QE) and Chinese credit expansion, ending when both slowed.2017 “ICO Cycle”: Driven by Chinese yuan credit growth and currency devaluation, collapsing as credit conditions tightened.2021 “COVID Cycle”: Propelled by U.S. liquidity stimulus while China remained restrained; ended as the Fed began hiking rates.“Bitcoin’s first bull run coincided with Fed QE and Chinese credit expansion,” Hayes wrote. “It ended when both the Fed and Chinese central bank slowed money printing.”Hayes concluded that bear markets occur when monetary conditions tighten, not because of Bitcoin’s halving schedule.Why This Cycle Is DifferentThe current bull market, Hayes argues, is shaped by aggressive monetary easing, not scarcity-driven supply shocks.He points to several structural changes:The U.S. Treasury has injected $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s reverse repo program back into markets through Treasury bill issuance.President Donald Trump is pushing to “run the economy hot” with easier policy to stimulate growth and reduce debt.Deregulation of banks is being explored to boost lending and credit creation.The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points to around 4%, with markets pricing in two more cuts — in October and December — according to CME data.Meanwhile, China’s policymakers are turning from deflationary restraint to mild stimulus, aiming to “end deflation” rather than withdraw liquidity.“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing,” Hayes said. “They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”Why the 4-Year Model May FailSince Bitcoin’s inception, traders have used the four-year halving model — which reduces BTC block rewards by 50% every four years — to predict bull and bear phases.Each cycle historically followed a pattern:Bull run before and after the halvingPeak roughly 12–18 months laterBear market with 70–80% drawdownBut according to Hayes, this mechanical pattern no longer applies, because fiat liquidity now dominates Bitcoin’s macro environment.“The king is dead, long live the king!” Hayes concluded — referring to the end of the halving cycle narrative and the rise of a liquidity-driven regime.Analysts Still DividedDespite Hayes’ stance, some analysts still see evidence of cyclical behavior.Glassnode noted in August that Bitcoin’s current price structure “echoes prior patterns,” while Gemini’s Saad Ahmed said some form of cycle “will likely persist.”Still, Hayes believes the coming phase of monetary expansion could make this bull market longer and more powerful than any before.With global central banks signaling renewed liquidity expansion and the U.S. leading with rate cuts, Hayes predicts Bitcoin will continue rising rather than entering a prolonged correction.In his words:“When the economic pressure proves too intense, policymakers print money. This time, they’ve already started.”