市场现在有一种声音或者说逻辑，加密市场看美股市场，美股市场看AI革命，而AI则看英伟达的表现，虽然英伟达的财报虽然超出预期，但是仍然有不少看空的观点。

Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $1.22 billion in net outflows last week (Nov. 17–21, ET), marking their fourth consecutive week of redemptions, according to data from SoSoValue.The sustained outflows reflect continued risk-off sentiment across digital asset markets as Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the $90,000 level and institutional investors unwind positions amid macro uncertainty.BlackRock’s IBIT Leads Outflows With $1.09B LossBlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) posted the largest outflow of the week:Weekly outflow: $1.09 billionHistorical cumulative inflow: $62.7 billionGrayscale’s GBTC followed with:Weekly outflow: $172 millionHistorical cumulative outflow: $25.03 billionThe combined selling pressure from IBIT and GBTC accounted for nearly 1.26 billion in redemptions — more than the total weekly net outflow — with inflows into smaller ETFs partially offsetting the losses.Two ETFs Show Strength: Bitcoin Mini Trust and BTCODespite the redemptions, two products posted meaningful inflows:1. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC)Weekly inflow: $274 millionTotal historical net inflow: $1.951 billion2. Invesco & Galaxy Digital’s BTCOWeekly inflow: $35.8 millionTotal historical net inflow: $209 millionBoth ETFs continue to attract capital as investors rotate toward lower-fee or newly issued Bitcoin products.ETF Market Share and AUM SnapshotAs of press time:Total AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs: $110.11 billionETF share of Bitcoin’s market cap: 6.53%Historical cumulative net inflows: $57.64 billionThis means U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now collectively hold over 6.5% of all Bitcoin in existence, despite sustained outflows in November.

The administration’s DOGE office has gone dormant months early as the White House weighs easier paths to close federal units. source: https://decrypt.co/349772/department-government-efficiency-winds-down

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut on December 10 have surged above 70%, after New York Fed President John Williams — one of Jerome Powell’s closest policy allies — publicly stated that the central bank still has room to “adjust rates further in the near term.” The remarks sharply reversed weeks of skepticism fueled by internal disagreements among Fed officials and rising concerns over persistent inflation.For the past month, investors doubted whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had enough consensus to deliver another cut. But a series of dovish signals from the Fed’s most influential policymakers has dramatically shifted sentiment.Labor Market Weakness Becomes Central Justification for a CutEconomists say the deteriorating labor market now provides the clearest rationale for a December cut.Unemployment rose to 4.4% in September, the highest in nearly four years.Early data following the government shutdown shows slowing hiring and rising signs of stress in sectors previously viewed as stable.“This labor market deterioration is a reasonable justification for a rate cut in December,” said Wells Fargo chief economist Tom Porcelli.Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti echoed the concern, calling the job market “in a precarious state.”Williams’ Remarks Trigger a Market RepricingThe turning point came when New York Fed President John Williams — often considered part of the Fed’s “Big Three” alongside Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson — openly supported further rate adjustments:“I still believe there is room for further adjustments to interest rates in the near term,” Williams said last Friday.Markets immediately reacted.Odds of a December rate cut jumped from 39% to over 70% in 24 hours, according to CME FedWatch.Vanguard senior economist Josh Hirt said Williams’ statement was the decisive signal:“Powell, Williams, and Governor Waller now form a very powerful pro-cut camp.”Economists widely interpret Williams’ remarks as a message cleared at the highest level of the Fed.Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha noted that when a top official uses the phrase “in the short term,” it almost always refers to the next FOMC meeting.Why the Fed’s Internal Disagreements PersistDespite the strong shift toward rate-cut expectations, the December vote will likely not be unanimous. Several officials remain hesitant:Boston Fed President Susan Collins has expressed concerns about persistent inflation.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested she may not have supported the previous two rate cuts.Some policymakers argue financial conditions have already loosened via strong equity markets.Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester highlighted that the Fed faces an “impossible challenge”: navigating a mix of higher unemployment and still-elevated inflation, a dynamic resembling mild stagflation.Economists outline three core disputes inside the FOMC:Is policy tight or loose?Some say markets suggest policy is already easing; others point to housing and credit markets that remain tight.How should inflation be interpreted?The pro-cut camp says tariff-related distortions are masking underlying disinflation; hawks point to sticky inflation in non-tariff sectors.Why is weak hiring coexisting with strong consumer spending?Officials admit this paradox complicates policy signals.A High-Stakes Decision Made in a ‘Data Vacuum’A rare complication: because of the prolonged government shutdown, the Fed will not have updated employment or inflation data for the December meeting.This means policymakers will be forced to make their most consequential decision of the year with incomplete information.Mester said Powell may frame the December cut as an “insurance cut”—a precautionary move to soften economic momentum while watching how the economy responds.Why This Shift MattersA December rate cut would mark a major pivot in the Fed’s narrative and could reshape expectations for:bonds and equitiescredit marketshousingcryptocurrencies, which historically react strongly to easing cyclesEconomists say that with Powell, Williams, and Waller aligned, the probability of a December cut is now “highly probable” unless unexpected new risks emerge.

According to Odaily, NYDIG reports that Bitcoin's dominance rose to over 60% in early November. As the market experienced a pullback, funds consolidated into Bitcoin, stabilizing its dominance at approximately 59%.

Bitcoin’s abrupt drop to the $80,000 zone shocked traders, but back-tested data on multiple indicators suggests the market wash-out may be setting up for a longer-term rally to new highs.Key developmentsBTC’s monthly draw-down has reached around 23%, the steepest since June 2022.The price action has also tested the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023 — matching the start of the current bull cycle.Futures liquidations exceeded $1 billion, pointing to large forced exits across the market.The total crypto market cap has slid from about $4.2 trillion to $2.8 trillion, a 33% drop since early October.Fund and ETF outflows continue to rise, reinforcing structural selling pressures.A liquidity signal points to a possible bottomDespite the weak price action, one on-chain metric stands out: the spot bid-ask delta at 10% depth has surged to the second-highest level of 2025, indicating that buyers are stepping in during the decline. Historically, similar spikes preceded major bottoms and rallies. Analysts say if this pattern holds, a bottom could form in the coming weeks.Macro angle: Fed repricing and rate-cut expectationsIncreasing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December are helping support Bitcoin’s rebound. The odds of a cut have recently jumped, driven in part by dovish comments from senior Fed officials. While this shift is positive for risk assets, analysts caution the transition from rate hikes to easing may still take time, limiting the upside in the near-term.Why analysts warn of a bull trapSeveral factors suggest caution remains warranted:Digital asset treasury firms are trading below net asset value, limiting institutional accumulation.Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain weak, not yet verifying a structural reversal.Technical and options market data show heavy exposure to downside, with puts clustered in the $85K–$80K range.“Pessimism may have peaked, but I’d be cautious of walking into a bull trap,” said one leading options researcher.Outlook: Bottoming range and scenario planningBase case: Bitcoin may consolidate in a $80K–$88K range while liquidity conditions improve and ETF flows stabilise.Bull case: If the liquidity indicator continues to trend lower (e.g., from the current level toward -0.60 on the NFCI), a rally toward $100K+ could unfold by early 2026.Bear case: Failure to stabilize could push BTC down into the $70Ks before a durable bottom forms.In summary: Bitcoin’s current streak of losses is painful but may be part of a larger market reset. Real-time liquidity signals and macro repricing provide tentative hope for a turn-around. However, structural pressures remain entrenched and caution continues to be advised, according to Decrypt.

据 Cointelegraph 发文，NYDIG 表示，比特币主导率在 11 月初上涨至 60%以上，随着市场回调期间资金整合至 BTC，目前稳定在 59%左右。

JPMorgan Chase’s move has renewed scrutiny of alleged anti-crypto debanking despite a Trump order banning the practice. source: https://decrypt.co/349769/jpmorgan-chase-ends-banking-ties-strike-ceo

比特币财务公司 Twenty One Capital 首席执行官 Jack Mallers 分享了一封已裱框的大通银行信件。信件日期为 2025 年 9 月 2 日、通知其账户将被关闭，原因是银行审查发现与《银行保密法》及其他法规的合规问题，并存在账户异常活动。大通银行为摩根大通子公司，专注商业和零售银行业务。Jack Mallers 称，尽管他的父亲与摩根大通银行有着数十年的业务往来，但银行仍禁止他未来开设账户，且未给出任何具体理由。

1. 观点：比特币回升至 87500 美元，市场结构仍“脆弱”；2. 安全机构：高达 15%至 20%的加密公司中有朝鲜特工潜伏；3. 观点：美联储政策重新定价推动谨慎反弹，比特币创 2024 年以来最长连跌周数；4. 美联储官员明确主张降息，市场预期美联储 12 月降息概率飙升至 70%以上；5. 韩国金融管理机构对多家加密货币交易所陆续实施制裁；6. 观点：比特币需求逆转，但长期走势保持不变；7. pump.fun 项目方地址一周内将 4.05 亿枚 USDC 转入 Kraken；8. 比特币现货 ETF 上周净流出 12.2 亿美元，持续 4 周净流出；9. 以太坊现货 ETF 上周净流出 5.00 亿美元，持续 3 周净流出。

Pump. fun team has moved 405 million USDC into Kraken in the past week alone, and transferred 466 million USDC from Kraken to Circle. source: https://cryptonews.com/news/pump-fun-cashes-out-436-5m-usdc-token-slumps-24-in-1-week/

纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表态被解读为高层共识信号，市场预期大幅修正。经济学家指出，三位最具影响力的官员形成支持降息的强大阵营，将难以被撼动。

我们现在目睹的是两种相互竞争的货币体系之间的直接对抗

The United States has opened a federal investigation into Bitmain, the Chinese giant that controls 80% of the Bitcoin mining hardware in America, literally shooting itself in the leg.

Bitcoin Core v30放开OP_RETURN限制，大家都在说是因为"Ordinals 铭文限制无效"。真正原因根本不是Ordinals。 是BitVM。这个故事比Ordinals叙事更重要。

A specially crafted delegation transaction caused Cardano’s network to split into two conflicting chains, disrupting exchanges, DeFi apps, and users. Developers quickly deployed emergency fixes, restored consensus, and confirmed that no user funds were lost.

加密货币、AI与美股被动投资资金已形成高度关联的“铁索连江”之势，BTC崩盘不仅重加密资产，更通过ETF和相关上市公司的传导链条，对股票投资组合构成直接的流动性压力。

DAT将面临很高的门槛：大多数DAT将以折价交易，只有少数表现卓越的公司将以溢价交易。

近期市场的回调并非单一因素，而是技术周期见顶信号、宏观流动性收紧、机构获利了结与社区分歧的叠加结果。

金色财经推出加密货币和区块链行业早报《金色早8点》2888期，为您提供最新、最快的数字货币和区块链行业新闻。