Bitcoin Approaches Fair Value Amid Recent Decline, Analyst Suggests

According to Odaily, analyst Murphy has indicated that Bitcoin's recent downturn has brought it close to its fair value of approximately $98,000. This figure is derived from the historical average of the MVRV indicator, representing the central range of market valuation regression. Currently, the gap between Bitcoin's price and the average cost of active chips is minimal, suggesting that market bubbles have nearly dissipated. Murphy noted that if the market remains rational, value buying should occur within this range. However, if the decline continues, it may enter an irrational phase or a confidence collapse zone. Data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin's profitable supply (PSIP) stands at 72%, which is at the limit range of a bull market correction (70%-75%). Excluding Satoshi Nakamoto and lost BTC, the proportion of chips in floating loss is close to 40%. Additionally, the loss ratio among long-term holders has significantly increased, indicating that the market may have reached a cyclical bottom range. Analysts believe that if this correction is not the limit of a bull market adjustment, it could signal the start of a new bearish cycle.