Key TakeawaysSolana price drops over 3%, underperforming broader crypto market decline of 0.37%Over $192M in whale transfers to exchanges adds selling pressure on SOLTechnical breakdown below $195 and 30-day SMA ($216) weakens bullish structure Crypto Market Risk-Off Mood Hits AltcoinsThe Altcoin Season Index has plunged to 28/100, reflecting high risk aversion towards altcoins. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.72%.Source: CoinMarketCapThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 32, confirming a low-confidence environment across digital assets. This macro backdrop amplified selling in Solana, despite long-term catalysts such as ETF developments and DeFi staking activity. Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish MomentumSolana’s technical setup shows clear weakness after breaking below the $200 psychological support and its 30-day SMA at $216.55. Key metrics:Source: TradingViewAll indicators point to bearish momentum and low trend strength, while funding rate for SOL/USDT perpetuals sits at -0.0052%, signaling short pressure in derivatives markets.On the moving average side, SOL is trading below key levels.This places SOL in a technical breakdown phase, with short- and mid-term trends turning negative. ETF Optimism vs. On-Chain WeaknessDespite short-term weakness, ETF developments continue to support Solana’s long-term outlook. Bitwise recently amended its Solana ETF filing to include staking and lower fees to 0.20%, aiming to meet SEC expectations.Still, JPMorgan analysts warn of modest inflows, citing weak on-chain engagement and DeFi TVL declines. This creates a split between institutional optimism and actual user activity, and this may be an ongoing theme as Q4 continues. SOL Outlook: Key Levels and Risk Zones to WatchSOL is now consolidating below or around $202.90 (EMA 10). Bulls must reclaim $212.24 (SMA 20) to shift momentum. A break above this level could target $225 and $237.79 in a bullish scenario.However, failure to hold above $195 risks a slide to $190, then $180, with deeper support near $173.71 (SMA 200).