U.S. Treasury Market Eyes Fed Meeting Amid Middle East Tensions

On April 27, Jin10 reported that as tensions in the Middle East drive up oil prices, U.S. Treasury market traders are closely monitoring this week's Federal Reserve meeting to assess officials' views on inflation prospects. According to Jin10, the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but traders lean towards a rate cut by the end of the year. Swap market data from Friday indicates that the probability of a rate cut by year-end has risen to around 40%. This development could pave the way for Kevin Warsh, nominated by U.S. President Donald Trump, to lead the Fed and implement more accommodative policies in the future. In this context, traders will listen carefully to current Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference for updates on his plans after his term ends next May. Meanwhile, this week will also see a series of U.S. Treasury auctions, including 2-year and 5-year notes, to test market demand at current yield levels.