On-chain data and technical analysis shows strength in ARB price, even after a weekend filled with rumors and sell-offs.
Arbitrum suffered a big blow during the April 1 to April 2 weekend due to a conflict between the ARB token holders and the Arbitrum Foundation on the allocation of $750 million ARB tokens worth around $900 million.
Data from on-chain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence shows that the transfer of $50.5 million out of the disputed allocation of 750 million ARB tokens. They shared with Cointelegraph that,“Only 50.5 million of those tokens have been moved. 10 million tokens have been sent to be sold on exchanges, 40 million have been loaned to Wintermute and the remaining 500K remain untouched in a multisig wallet (labeled Gnosis Safe Proxy).”
On April 3 morning, the Arbitrum Foundation conceded to the community's opposition and decided to break up the said proposal in question into multiple proposals for allocating the funds for the project's ecosystem growth.
Another on-chain transfer of 2.694 billion ARB tokens from the DAOs Treasury to 140 addresses spooked the market. The transfers ranged from 100,000 to 71.6 million ARB per address.
Crypto analytics provider, LookOnChain, found that one of these addresses transferred their tokens to the Coinbase exchange, meaning they could sell their allocations. These tokens represent the amount allocated toward the team, investors, and advisors, which was said to be locked for four years.
An active Crypto Twitter member Ogle responded to the ensuing panic selling by saying, "This is all such a non-story, it's odd how big a deal you guys are making out of it." Ogle added that these are probably exchange custodian wallets or KYC'd investor wallets bound by the lock-up.
The fear, doubt and uncertainty created during the weekend caused ARB price to plunge by 20% from March 31’s peak of $1.44 to lows at $1.10.
Whales are buying ARB
Zachrey Lerangis, the head of operations at Arkham Intelligence told Cointelegraph that the “ARB whale activity over the past week has been balanced.”
Arkham’s analysts recorded $12 million in cumulative ARB whale deposits on exchanges, which indicates selling, compared to $18 million withdrawals, which is indicative of buying.
Currently, Wintermute is the largest holder and market-making entity for $ARB tokens, with a balance of $47 million worth of ARB tokens. Amber Group is the second largest market maker, holding ARB tokens worth $4 million. Both funds have been acting as market makers providing liquidity across various centralized exchanges.
The single largest ARB Whale investor holding 9.94 million ARB tokens worth around $11.7 million, refused to sell despite the fears. The account added a small amount of 111 ARB for 0.07 ETH over the weekend. The wallet bought ARB tokens at an average price of $1.25.
However, LookOnChain recorded large sales in two out of the six top six ARB investors. The wallets offloaded 2.054 million ARB tokens worth around $2.45 million.
According to a Nansen update, excluding Wintermute, 64 smart money addresses hold 11.7 million ARB tokens worth around $14.04 million. Smart money accounts are flagged by Nansen, representing the most active and prolific traders.
The holdings of smart money wallets are still greater than the total claims made by these wallets in total, suggesting that smart wallets are holding their buys. The number of smart money wallets holding ARB tokens has been consistent.
Additionally, crypto analysts from Messari found an interesting statistic showing the increase in the stablecoin inflow to Arbitrum. An increase in stablecoin supply in an ecosystem strengthens its buying power.
Technically, the ARB/USD chart looks bullish as sellers failed to break below the March 28 lows of $1.11 despite the FUD around the misappropriation of funds during the weekend.
Ten days since the token launch, around 90% of the Airdrop has been claimed by recipients. The adverse impact of the governance drama during the weekend likely motivated remaining Airdrop holders to sell their holdings. However, the conviction of whales and increase in Arbitrum ecosystem’s buying power is encouraging for the growth of the Ethereum Layer-2 rollup.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.