Author: Marie Poteriaieva, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance
On February 3, Bitcoin fell below $92,000, shocking the cryptocurrency market and triggering up to $2.1 billion in liquidations. Initially, investors seemed prepared for the economic difficulties brought about by the tariff war announced by US President Donald Trump. However, concerns soon shifted to whether Bitcoin had peaked and was about to enter a downtrend.
More worryingly, Bitcoin Archive points out that every past BTC bull run has peaked within 330 days of breaking the previous cycle's all-time high. February 4 was the 328th day.
However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after the drop. The announcement on February 3 of suspending tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as a speech by President Trump's cryptocurrency czar David Sacks scheduled for February 4, seemed to reassure the market.
This raises the question of whether the market has rallied too quickly. Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges remain, presenting Bitcoin traders with the risk of falling into a bull trap.
As the tariff war panic has shown, Bitcoin demand remains strong, continuing to absorb pullbacks — even at all-time highs above $90,000.
Glassnode’s analysis of Bitcoin’s bull run down suggests that demand for BTC could rise, potentially sparking a “second leg up” in the market. Historical data shows that in the past three cycles (2011-2015, 2015-2018, and 2018-2022), corrections averaged about 25%, followed by an acceleration in price performance during the last third of the bull market. The current bull market has not yet experienced such an acceleration.
Bitcoin bull market correction retracement. Source: Glassnode
On the supply side, a key metric to watch is the long/short holder threshold. It tracks the rotation of capital from long-term investors to new buyers, providing a clearer picture of supply dynamics.
Bitcoin cycle peaks typically coincide with times when long-term holders take profits and sell their tokens to new buyers.Glassnode data shows that this is not the case currently.
Even though long-term holders have transferred over 1 million BTC to new buyers since November, they still hold a significant share of the supply, suggesting they are confident in future price increases.
Bitcoin long-term and short-term holder threshold. Source: Glassnode
Other data from Glassnode shows that so far, the 2022-2025 cycle is very similar to the 2015-2018 cycle. However, a complete repetition is unlikely. In 2017, Bitcoin's all-time high increased its price by 113 times, and the next peak brought a 20-fold return. As Bitcoin matures, the growth rate of each cycle declines, requiring increasing capital inflows to maintain new price levels.
BTC has risen six times so far from its December 2023 cycle low of $16,000, suggesting an expected multiplier of between 10x and 13x. This implies a peak of between $160,000 and $210,000 — a target range that aligns with many analysts’ forecasts. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, expects Bitcoin to reach $180,000, while Bitwise Asset Management and Bernstein expect it to reach $200,000. Tom Lee, a CNBC contributor and managing partner at Fundstrat, predicts a $250,000 price.
Bitcoin price performance since the cycle low. Source: Glassnode
Technical analyst CryptoCon believes that Bitcoin's relative strength index is quite accurate in determining cycle stages. RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes and helps identify overbought and oversold conditions for an asset.
By analyzing the RSI approaching the 99% threshold, CryptoCon identified key cycle stages. Their data shows that Bitcoin entered its fourth cycle phase last November, which suggests that the market could top out around September-October 2025. RSI Bollinger Band % Phase. Source: CryptoCon_ /X Another indicator that has historical accuracy in identifying market tops is the Pi Cycle Top. The indicator tracks the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and multiples of the 350-day moving average (350DMA x 2). In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price peaked when the 111DMA crossed above the 350DMA x 2.
According to the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Forecast, which extrapolates these moving averages to estimate the next peak, Bitcoin is expected to peak around September 26th.
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Forecast. Source: Bitbo, PositiveCrypto
While no indicator is perfect, the market's resilience and continued demand suggest that the true top may still be ahead.
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