Why December 2025 is a key macroeconomic turning point for Ethereum

Author: Digital Asset Research Translator: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance

This month, we're focusing on Ethereum—its major Fusaka hard fork upgrade is imminent, and a series of key time catalysts suggest a potentially significant cyclical turning point in the market.

In July, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of Ethereum's upward trend. Although the subsequent pullback exceeded our initial expectations, our time cycle analysis method once again demonstrated its reliability—as predicted, the market peak occurred in the first week of September.

Now, we'll use the same analytical framework, combining seasonal patterns, time cycles, macroeconomic cycles, and other indicators to analyze why Ethereum is likely to bottom out this month.

By starting with a panoramic view of Ethereum's monthly cycle and then focusing on the current trend, we can understand why December is highly likely to be a key reversal point.

Ethereum Monthly Cycles Looking at this 40-42 month "low-to-low" cycle, in Ethereum's short history, its major cyclical lows have occurred roughly every 42 months. The chart below shows that the intervals between monthly closing lows perfectly match this time pattern. 42 months is approximately 3.5 years, and this cycle is significant—it happens to be the midpoint of Gann's 7-year cycle. The following is Gann's discussion of the 7-year cycle:

If this 7-year panic cycle is completed, this month (December 2025) will correspond to the 84th month, perfectly coinciding with the bottoming time in 2018.

We can also take Ethereum's historical low as the starting point and count backwards for 84 months, arriving at November 2022—when the FTX exchange crashed, undoubtedly marking a panic-driven low point in the market.

December is a high-probability inflection point

Therefore, this month we are in a strong cyclical inflection point range of 3.5 to 7 years. But to verify this judgment, we need to review the frequency with which December has been a major turning point in Ethereum's history.

The arrows in the following chart mark every December since Ethereum's inception in 2015: green arrows represent major bottoms, red arrows represent major tops, and blue arrows represent no major turning point.

The arrows in the following chart mark every December since Ethereum's inception in 2015: green arrows represent major bottoms, red arrows represent major tops, and blue arrows represent no major turning point.

It can be said that in 8 out of 10 years, December almost corresponds to the absolute top or bottom of Ethereum. Of these 8 turning points, 5 were major lows, and the other 3 were major highs. Considering the probability of a major turning point next month, and combining market sentiment, price levels, and monthly cycles, we have reason to believe that this time it is more likely to form a major low.

Weekly Time Cycle

Next, we need to consider the duration of the cycle.

Analyzing any market requires understanding the typical duration of its price movements – this was key to our successful prediction in our July 17th report that Ethereum would peak in the first week of September. This time, we will focus on the average weekly retracement magnitude of this cycle since the 2021 peak. As shown in the chart above, the average weekly retracement ended within the 13-16 week range this cycle. Currently, the market is at this crucial juncture.

Important Time Factors

After understanding macroeconomic cycles, seasonal patterns, and the duration of market movements, we also need to focus on the important time factors that drive all market turning points. First, let's look at the crucial 180-week cycle—since the 2021 peak, this time factor has accurately captured major market turning points this year multiple times.

Approximately 180 weeks after the 2021 high, the market reached the crash low in April 2022.

The next major turning point was the high in March 2022, followed by a market crash. This point in time was exactly 180 weeks from the peak in September 2021.

Currently, we are at the next critical turning point—not just an ordinary turning point, but potentially the bottom of a major bear market. We are currently at the 180-week cycle position of this point.

The importance of the 180-week time factor is self-evident; all the major turning points of the past year have coincided with points 180 weeks ago.

In fact, further backtracking reveals that the bottom in 2022 was almost 180 weeks different from the bottom in 2018.

We can also break down this time factor into a 90-week "half-cycle" (i.e., what Gann called the "midpoint").

From the low point in 2022 to the high point in March 2024, it was exactly 90 weeks—undoubtedly a significant high point. Currently, we are 90 weeks away from that high point, and this cycle is about to complete.

If this resonance signal is still not convincing enough, we can focus on the daily chart cycle: Ethereum's low last week was exactly 90 days away from the previous high.

BTC.D and ETH/BTC

To further support why this month represents a significant macroeconomic turning point, we will analyze the exchange rate relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH/BTC).

First, let's look at BTC.D: This indicator exhibits a 60-month cycle, potentially forming a significant high. The movement of BTC.D within this period is complex, but these important time factors are traceable in all charts. Currently, we only have one complete cycle for reference (this is not ideal), but judgments must be made based on existing data.

This cycle shows that the "high-to-high" cycle of BTC.D is 60 months, and next month (December 2025) will be exactly the 60th month since the high in December 2020.

Looking at the ETH/BTC exchange rate, we also marked every December since its inception. Of the seven major turning points in December, five were low points, and most Decembers marked important monthly turning points.

Furthermore, in the chart below, the 60-month Gann cycle of the ETH/BTC exchange rate resonates with the 60-month high cycle of BTC.D, both pointing to December as a reversal month of "low to low".

Price Level

Since the probability of a major turning point is extremely high, we need to combine price and sentiment to judge the market direction. Most readers are probably aware that current market sentiment remains in a state of extreme panic, with public attention near historical lows.

But what signals are prices sending?

The first key indicator is the 50% retracement level. This level must hold if the market is to maintain a bull market pattern.

From different time perspectives, the market may have fallen below this level in the short term, but not necessarily in the long term. However, I am more concerned about whether the key levels at the macroeconomic cycle level remain intact – judging from the monthly chart, the answer is yes. Furthermore, the market is still forming "higher highs" and "higher lows" at the macroeconomic level, which is a typical structure of a bull market. Zooming in on the weekly chart: Ethereum is currently above a key support level that has been contested since the beginning of 2021, and the weekly RSI indicator shows a bullish divergence buy signal. This at least suggests that the market will see a weekly to monthly rebound. Finally, we briefly analyze the relationship between Ethereum and copper prices—copper prices and Ethereum have a very strong macroeconomic correlation, and copper prices are currently breaking through historical highs. Looking at the weekly chart for ETH/copper, the ratio is near its 2017 high – a level that has acted as strong support since the 2022 bottom. Simultaneously, a bullish divergence has appeared on the weekly RSI at this key macro level. Copper prices are strong, but I expect Ethereum to react strongly and begin outperforming copper in the medium term. In conclusion, December 2025 is undoubtedly a major macroeconomic turning point for Ethereum. Monthly main cycles, correction cycles, December's seasonal patterns, and key time factors all point to a reversal for Ethereum this month. However, it should be noted that I do not believe there will be a straight upward surge in December. Instead, a significant bottom will gradually form over 2-4 weeks, ultimately driving a substantial rise from the end of December to the beginning of January of the following year. Looking at the trend of BTC.D and overall macroeconomic risk appetite indicators, the market is shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins, a trend that may continue into 2026, with Ethereum leading this wave. BTC.D may be nearing its end, with the final high potentially appearing in January next year; while Ethereum and other altcoins will bottom out in the coming weeks, followed by a rise in the first quarter of 2026. The duration of this rally is difficult to predict, but several events this month will validate this logic: this week's Fusaka upgrade, expectations of an interest rate cut next week, the pending Clarity Act, and potential quantitative easing. The current market is in a state of extreme panic, low volume, and oversold conditions, coinciding with a critical juncture—all characteristics of a major monthly reversal. In my view, a further pullback in early December would present a good buying opportunity.