Who will be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve? Trump's latest speech revealed a heavy signal!
According to CCTV News, on August 5 local time, Trumpmay soon announce the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the decision on the selection of Federal Reserve Board members will be made this weekend
. Previously, Trump had considered former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Jeff Bessant, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. This further clarifies the competitive landscape for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Besides the two Kevins, the third candidate is reportedly likely to be current Federal Reserve Governor Waller. The identity of the fourth candidate has not yet been disclosed.However, the report quoted informed sources as saying that
James Fishback, CEO of investment company Azoria, had a phone call with Trump on Monday (August 4) and recommended himself for an interim Federal Reserve position.At the same time, Trump plans to determine the successor to Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler by the end of this week. This appointment could not only affect short-term monetary policy, but may also
serve as a preview of future Federal Reserve chairman selections. "Two Kevins" Lead the Chairmanship Race Both candidates Trump explicitly mentioned are named Kevin. Kevin Hassett currently serves as Trump's economic advisor and chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term, making him very familiar with Trump's economic policy philosophies. Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve Governor, serving from 2006 to 2011, and a longtime Trump supporter. Walsh's policy experience during the financial crisis earned him a reputation on Wall Street as a relatively moderate hawk. The third candidate is reportedly Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve Board member. According to a Jianwen article, Waller dissented from last week's monetary policy meeting and issued a statement arguing that inflation risks from tariffs are limited, while the job market and economic growth appear to be weakening, thus supporting a rate cut. Analysts say this stance aligns with Trump's criticism of Powell for not cutting interest rates since his return to the White House. Waller's policy preferences may be more aligned with Trump's preference for loose monetary policy. Is there another dark horse? The identity of the fourth candidate has not yet been disclosed, but the media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that James Fishback, CEO of the investment company Azoria, had a phone call with Trump on Monday and recommended himself for the interim Federal Reserve position. Fishback previously served as a consultant to the government efficiency department DOGE, and a presidential aide has requested relevant information from him.Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research and a senior macro analyst, also posted on the social media platform PingtanX, saying, "
there is another candidate who has not yet been discussed," and attached a chart of the latest Federal Reserve Chairman bets from Polymarket, "the world's largest online prediction market."
As shown in the figure below:
The winning rate of Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Walsh(blue line) (
29%), The candidate not yet discussed (black line) has a lower chance of winning (28%) than only Walsh, while Hassett (red line) has a significantly higher chance of winning (22%), and Waller (green line) is about to win (31%). leaf="">15%, and Bessant's (orange line) chances of winning have dropped to 1%.
Meanwhile, Trump will decide on Kugler's successor by the end of this week. Analysts point out that:
this appointment is of special significance because although the new board member's term will only last until January next year, Trump may choose someone who will replace Powell in the future, giving him the opportunity to begin influencing policy discussions within a few months. Powell's term as Fed Chairman will expire in May next year.
According to reports, Trump said: "Many people say that if you are doing this, why not just choose the person who will lead the Federal Reserve? This is also a possibility."
Analysts said that this approach would give the nominee several months and multiple policy meetings to influence the policy debate.
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