Written by: Pzai, Foresight News
On April 24, Fidelity said on X that "the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is declining due to purchases by listed companies. This is expected to accelerate in the near future." Since the US election, Trump's expectations of easing in the crypto space have undoubtedly raised the market's potential expectations, and listed companies have purchased nearly 350,000 Bitcoins.
The market game between exchanges, on-chain whales and listed companies is also in full swing. With the market turmoil, where will Bitcoin go in the future? This article will analyze Bitcoin data indicators and take a look at market dynamics.
The current number of Bitcoin exchanges is 2.6 million, the lowest level since November 2018. Since November 2024, more than 425,000 Bitcoins have been transferred from exchanges.
In this indicator, the important time point is the second half of 2024, especially after Trump's victory, there was a large outflow, when US listed companies bought heavily, and this trend is still showing a downward trend today, which is reflected in the fact that relevant entities (listed companies, etc.) are increasing their Bitcoin reserves.
Since the US election, listed companies have added nearly 350,000 bitcoins to their holdings. Judging from the bitcoin holding growth curve of Strategy, a large holder, it has increased its holdings by 107,000 bitcoins in two weeks since November 10, 2024, and has continued to increase its holdings to more than 531,000 bitcoins, with an average monthly increase of 42,000 bitcoins. Among the holdings of listed companies, 8 have more than 10,000 bitcoins, and their holdings have maintained an upward trend in the past six months.
Most of these listed companies' Bitcoin mNAV (stock market value to holding market value ratio) is between 1.4 and 2.25. If the ratio is 1:1, it is expected that another $50 billion of liquidity will be released to the Bitcoin market. Outside the United States, Asian listed companies such as Metaplanet in Japan and HK Asia Holdings in Hong Kong are increasing their allocations. Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich even said that he plans to double his Bitcoin holdings from 5,000 this year.
Before January 2025, the spot Bitcoin ETF data also matched the outflow from the exchange, with the highest single-day inflow reaching 18,000 Bitcoins, which to a certain extent promoted the surge in Bitcoin. Before the election, Strategy's average holding price was $42,000, and then it continued to increase its holdings to $67,000, proving that the long-term value of Bitcoin is recognized by the market.
In addition, US policymakers are also accelerating the process of compliance reserves. According to Bitcoin Laws data, three of the 27 US states that have submitted Bitcoin reserve bills have entered the second phase of submission (Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas), of which Arizona has entered the second phase of review. On March 7, David Sacks, White House artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency adviser, said that President Trump had signed an executive order on the strategic reserve of Bitcoin, but only reserves Bitcoin confiscated through criminal or civil procedures.
According to on-chain data statistics, the US government holds more than 183,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 0.92% of the current circulating reserves of Bitcoin, and the current market value exceeds 16.4 billion US dollars. As state bills are gradually implemented, this number will grow further, which will also lower the threshold for US companies to reserve Bitcoin.
For the industry, the entry of traditional funds into the market provides reassurance to the market, and since most listed companies' Bitcoin investments are above the cost line (e.g. Strategy 1.4 times, Tesla 2.78 times), the investment expectations for Bitcoin are also optimistic. As the compliance direction in the encryption field and the dust of "Trump Reserve" are settled, ETF inflows have also increased again, which is expected to continue to strengthen the buying trend of listed companies.
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