What is the impact of the US election on the crypto market? Which tokens will be popular?

Author: Hotcoin Research

The 2024 US presidential election is about to kick off. For the first time, cryptocurrency has become an important topic of discussion in the election, and its importance and influence have reached unprecedented heights. Whether it is Trump or Biden, both major candidates have to face this rapidly emerging emerging market and incorporate their attitudes and policy propositions on cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies.

1. Cryptocurrency: From the margins to campaign chips

The history of cryptocurrency development can be said to be a history of innovation and controversy. From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies today, cryptocurrency has gone through a process from nothing to something, from questioning to acceptance, and now gradually moving towards the mainstream. Cryptocurrency was originally just an attempt and experiment by a few technical geeks. However, as time goes by, its value and influence continue to increase, attracting more and more investors and institutions to join this emerging market.

Due to its characteristics such as decentralization and anonymity, cryptocurrency is also accompanied by regulatory challenges and legal disputes during its development. Governments and financial institutions have different attitudes towards it. Some countries actively accept it and try to incorporate it into the regulatory framework, while others take a strict restriction or even prohibition attitude.

1.1 Analysis of the political game behind the approval of Ethereum ETF

After the approval and listing of Bitcoin spot ETF, the approval of Ethereum spot ETF can be said to be an important milestone in the cryptocurrency market, releasing an important positive signal, marking the gradual increase in the US government's acceptance of cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum.

In the initial application stage, many Ethereum ETF proposals were rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for various reasons. The reasons for rejection mainly focused on the controversy over whether Ethereum is a security, market manipulation, and imperfect regulatory framework. In the critical approval process, the competition of political forces has become an important factor, and most Democratic lawmakers who have criticized similar decisions in the past have remained silent. With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, major political parties and candidates hope to establish an image of supporting technological innovation and financial market reform among voters. The approval of Ethereum ETF can be seen as a positive signal from the government to the cryptocurrency market, which will help win the support of young voters and the technology industry.

1.2 Cryptocurrency policy is becoming an important issue in the US election

In the 2024 US presidential election, cryptocurrency is becoming an important topic of election discussion and a bargaining chip for voters. The attitudes and policy propositions of the two major candidates, Trump and Biden, on cryptocurrency not only directly affect their voter base, but may also have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.

Communities of color and young people were the key to Biden's victory in the 2020 election. Institutional polls show that the current cryptocurrency ownership rate of these two groups is higher than that of other groups. Whether they can win their support has become an important aspect of the struggle between Trump and Biden. For many voters, cryptocurrency is not only an investment tool, but also a symbol of freedom and innovation. Especially among young voters and technology geeks, cryptocurrency has a broad support base. Therefore, both Trump and Biden have to include policy propositions on cryptocurrency in their campaign strategies to win the support of these voters.

In the 2024 US presidential election, crypto companies such as Coinbase and Ripple, as well as venture capital firms that support cryptocurrencies such as a16z, have announced that they will inject capital into the cryptocurrency super PAC, attempting to gain voice for the crypto industry through "money power".

Second, US cryptocurrency policy and key nodes of the election

The government's policy attitude directly affects the price fluctuations and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. The US government's policy attitude towards cryptocurrencies has a great impact on the trend of the global market. As a global financial center, the US policy changes not only directly affect the domestic market, but also have an important demonstration effect on global investors and regulatory policies in other countries.

In terms of regulation, the US government's attitude has always been cautious and conservative, mainly focusing on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors and preventing financial crimes. The US government regulates the cryptocurrency market through multiple agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

2.1 Trump's changing attitude towards cryptocurrencies

During Trump's administration, the US government's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone a complex evolution. Initially, the Trump administration was skeptical and negative about cryptocurrencies, believing that they lack intrinsic value and are easily used for illegal activities. In 2019, Trump publicly stated on Twitter that he did not like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "not currencies, their value is highly volatile and has no real basis." He also emphasized that cryptocurrencies could be used for illegal activities, including drug trafficking and money laundering. This negative attitude had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market in the early days of Trump's administration. The market reaction at the time was relatively negative, and many investors were uneasy about the future cryptocurrency policy in the United States.

Over time, the Trump administration's attitude gradually changed. In December 2018, Trump appointed Bitcoin supporter Mick Mulvaney as White House Chief of Staff. This appointment was seen as a signal that the Trump administration began to be more open to cryptocurrencies. In addition, Trump signed several executive orders involving fintech and blockchain technology during his term, aimed at promoting innovation and technological development.

In the 2024 election, Trump's attitude took a 180-degree turn. He not only publicly expressed his support for the development of cryptocurrencies, but also made remarks about "ensuring that the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin happens in the United States." He also said that if he is re-elected president, he will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, on his first day in office. Trump also accepted cryptocurrency donations in his campaign, trying to win voters' support through policy adjustments. As of June 5, the value of crypto assets held by Trump's address has exceeded $30 million, thanks to the growth of Meme coins he holds.

However, on June 4, Trump was convicted of all 34 felonies of falsifying business records in a criminal trial in Manhattan, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. This verdict adds unpredictable new variables to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

2.2 Biden Administration's Policy on Cryptocurrency

For most of the time since it came to power, the Biden administration has been conservative and cautious about cryptocurrencies, focusing mainly on strengthening supervision and preventing risks. In the early days of its presidency, the Biden administration strengthened its supervision of the cryptocurrency market through agencies such as the Treasury Department and the SEC, and issued a series of regulatory regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges and market participants.

As the election approaches, the Biden administration has gradually adjusted its policy stance. Recently, the Biden campaign team has begun to contact some crypto industry experts, including crypto people who Biden has rejected in the past, to seek guidance on its crypto policy. On May 23, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21), which will transfer regulatory authority over digital currencies from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the more industry-friendly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). And it will more clearly define the standards that make crypto tokens securities or commodities. Biden announced that he would not veto the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill if it is passed.

In addition, another U.S. presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., also affirmed crypto technology, saying that "cryptocurrency is a symbol of freedom and transparency" and bought 21 bitcoins during the campaign and bought 3 bitcoins for each of his children to show his support for cryptocurrency as a trading currency.

2.3 Key time nodes of this U.S. election

As the election progresses, the attitudes and policy propositions of the candidates towards cryptocurrencies will have an important impact on the market. Especially at key election nodes, candidates' policy statements and campaign activities may trigger sharp market fluctuations. Here are some key time nodes in this US presidential election:

June 27: First Debate

Presidential debates often greatly affect the election situation, and the first debate is particularly important. Candidates' attitudes and policy proposals on cryptocurrencies will be more exposed in the debate, and the market may react quickly based on the results of the debate.

July 15-18: Republican National Convention

During the Republican National Convention, candidates will formally accept the nomination and outline their campaign platforms. If Trump further clarifies his pro-cryptocurrency policies at the convention, the market may be boosted.

August 19-22: Democratic National Convention

Similar to the Republican Convention, Biden will formally accept the nomination during the Democratic National Convention. If the Biden team announces new cryptocurrency-friendly policies at the convention, it may have a positive impact on the market.

September 10: Second Debate

The second debate will be an important opportunity for the candidates to further confront each other. Any discussion of cryptocurrency policy may cause market volatility.

November 5: National General Election

The election voting day is the most critical time node. The election results will directly affect the direction of cryptocurrency policy in the next four years, and the market may fluctuate violently after the election results are announced.

December 2024: Electoral College Voting

The vote of the Electoral College will finally confirm the president-elect. Although this node is not as important as the general election day, it may still have an impact on the market, especially if the election results are controversial.

January 20, 2025: Presidential Inauguration Day

The president-elect will be officially sworn in on this day. The new president's inaugural speech and subsequent policy statements will have an important impact on the cryptocurrency market.

III. Inventory of popular tokens in this US presidential election

In this US presidential election, various candidate-related cryptocurrencies have become the focus of the market, reflecting investors' expectations and confidence in the candidates' policies. These tokens are not only hype assets, but also an important way to express political stance and cultural identity.

MAGA ($MAGA)

$MAGA is a token named after Trump's campaign slogan "Make America Great Again", which has become one of the most watched cryptocurrencies in this election. The $MAGA token not only represents Trump's political philosophy, but also closely connects supporters through blockchain technology. Since the beginning of 2024, the market performance of the $MAGA token has been very impressive, with several sharp increases.

Doland Tremp ($TREMP)

$TREMP is another popular Trump-related token, whose name cleverly plays on Trump's name. The token has received widespread attention from the market since its release, especially in the context of Trump's repeated mention of cryptocurrencies during the campaign. The $TREMP token was originally designed to support Trump's campaign, but also provides investors with an opportunity to express their political stance.

Jeo Boden ($BODEN)

$BODEN is a token named after Joe Biden, which has also attracted much attention in this election. $Boden tokens were created to support Biden's campaign and attract investors who are optimistic about Biden's cryptocurrency policies. Unlike Trump's tokens, $BODEN tokens have had a relatively stable market performance, but as Biden's policy stance on cryptocurrencies has gradually become more friendly, it has also provided support for the market performance of $BODEN tokens.

DAO Governance ($PEOPLE)

The $PEOPLE token represents the concept of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), and the $PEOPLE coin is the donation certificate given by ConstitutionDAO to contributors. ConstitutionDAO aims to raise funds in the form of a DAO, trying to buy the last privately owned first edition of the United States Constitution at a Sotheby's auction, thereby preventing the rich from owning it alone. Although the bid failed, this Constitution auction can also be seen as a challenge to traditional capital by decentralized organizations.

Populist Attributes American Coin ($USA)

American Coin ($USA) is a token with strong populist attributes. Its propaganda copy is similar to the American Declaration of Independence, which gives $USA more cultural and political significance. The holders of $USA tokens are mostly investors who have a strong sense of identity with American culture and history, and they hope to express their political stance and cultural identity through this token.

Stalk Coin ($PEPE)

Stalk Coin ($PEPE) is unique in the cryptocurrency market with its humorous and sarcastic characteristics. During the US election, $PEPE tokens also became a hot spot for investors. During the 2016 US election, the Pepe emoticon package began to be associated with the US presidential election. The holders of $PEPE are mainly young investors who like humor and satire, and they express their views on political and social phenomena through this token.

Eight tokens accepted by Trump's team

On May 22, Trump's campaign team launched the website https://www.donaldjtrump.com/crypto, where donors can donate to Trump's joint fundraising committee through Coinbase. Trump's team accepts donations in eight cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL and 0x (ZRX). This move not only expands Trump's funding sources, but also shows his recognition and support for cryptocurrencies. After Trump announced that he would accept donations, the market reacted quickly and the prices of these tokens generally rose.

Fourth, the US election and the outlook for crypto policies

The impact of this US presidential election on the cryptocurrency market will be far-reaching and complex. Whether it is Trump's re-election or Biden's re-election, it will have different degrees of impact and influence on the cryptocurrency market.

4.1 Trump or Biden?

If Trump is re-elected, it can be expected that he will continue to adopt cryptocurrency-friendly policies. During the campaign, he repeatedly expressed his support for cryptocurrencies and accepted cryptocurrency donations, which shows his attention and recognition of this emerging market. Trump may promote more relaxed regulatory policies, reduce restrictions on the cryptocurrency market, and encourage innovation and development. However, the Trump administration's decision-making style is often more radical and vacillating, and the market may experience violent fluctuations.

If Biden is re-elected, he may adopt a more balanced policy. During his tenure, he has shown his attention to cryptocurrency regulation, but he has also gradually recognized the importance of the cryptocurrency market and adjusted some policies. If Biden is re-elected, he may continue to strengthen the regulation of cryptocurrencies. In addition, compared with Trump, Biden's policy style is relatively mild and stable, and the market may show higher stability.

According to Paradigm's survey, this year cryptocurrency holders prefer Trump to Biden, with a ratio of 48% to 39%, and 13% are undecided.

4.2 Outlook for the trend of US crypto policy

In the next few years, the US government's policy direction in the field of cryptocurrency will continue to affect the development of the global market. Whether Trump or Biden is elected, the following two major policy trends may gradually emerge:

1. Encourage innovation and application of blockchain technology: Recognize the potential and innovation of cryptocurrency technology, especially in the fields of finance, logistics and healthcare, adopt a more rational and transparent attitude, and regulators will be more actively involved in the development of cryptocurrency to protect the public interest, rather than viewing cryptocurrency as a threat.

2. Improvement of the regulatory framework: In the future, the US government will further improve the regulatory framework of cryptocurrency, including market manipulation monitoring, anti-money laundering measures, transparent trading rules, investor protection mechanisms, etc.

3. Tax policy adjustment: As the cryptocurrency market expands, the government may adjust tax policies to better manage and collect cryptocurrency transaction taxes.

With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, cryptocurrency will play an increasingly important role in this political game. In the coming months, we will witness the further enhancement of the status of cryptocurrency in politics, economy and society, and observe how it affects election results and market trends. Investors need to pay close attention to policy dynamics and formulate scientific investment strategies to cope with uncertain market environments and seize potential investment opportunities.

Hotcoin is very concerned about the progress of the US election and its potential impact on the crypto market. It has launched $MAGA, $TREMP, $PEOPLE, $PEPE and 8 tokens donated by the Trump team (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL and ZRX), and will continue to monitor and launch related high-quality assets. For crypto investment, come to Hotcoin, get the hottest high-quality assets first and be one step ahead!