What happened in the crypto market and what will happen

Author: 0xTodd, Source: Twitter @0x_Todd

In the past week, many friends called me to ask about the market. I think it is necessary to disclose my thoughts and my views on the current market -

[What has changed]

[Future progress]

My family members who have been following me for a long time know that I am a long-term investor. Therefore, starting from 2019, I have an annual strategy that is updated every year. 2024-2025 is probably this article, for discussion with my family members.

1. DeepSeek punctured the bubble

As soon as DeepSeek came out, don't worry about whether it really used 5 million US dollars to train such an AI, but this is the narrative: [Algorithm improvement] at least defeated [computing power improvement] in the short term.

Don't worry about whether this thing is true - since the market unanimously recognizes the 5 million thing, you should treat it as true.

At the end of the 24th year of our crypto industry, apart from meme, I don’t want to admit it, but objectively there is only one narrative left: AIAgent, which can be said to be the hope of the whole village.

However, no one expected that AIAgent would be ruthlessly beaten by DeepSeek, which is in the real AI track next door.

For example, the DS team has real IQ200, fresh graduates from Tsinghua University and Peking University, and Olympic medalists are everywhere.

In our industry, we are chasing after second-tier programmers who are unemployed at home, and AI engineers who are dismissed by large companies or secretly doing side jobs, so sometimes we are forced to have an IQ of 50.

So..

On January 27, I closed all my AI token positions with tears in my eyes. I didn’t sell at the highest point, and I sold a lot of them when the market fell back. It would be a lie to say that I didn’t feel bad.

But the more cruel fact is that this thing has turned our entire AIAgent track into a clown. This is probably true.

The reason why “narrative” is “narrated” before “event” is because this “event” has not yet landed, and it can only rely on “narration”. Once the story can’t be told, the decline of the track is really irreversible.

Second, the president and his mob

I don’t know how everyone feels during the Chinese New Year. Anyway, my physical experience is that many friends and relatives are asking how to register BN or OKX. It’s because they want to buy Trump coins.

The last time they were so crazy was during the National Day, when they opened accounts and entered the A-share market.

Shanghai Composite Index Trend Source: Tencent Securities

If I remember correctly, these warriors who entered the A-share market on October 8 are still hanging on the top of the mountain.

After taking profit on AI, to be honest, the more I thought about it, the more scared I became. Then I saw this post.

To sum up: the president seems to have lost money, but there are two possible reasons:

1. He doesn't make money in the way you can see

2. He is a fool

Anyway, I know the answer is definitely not 2.

Yes! Meme is now played by the president, and he can also make money through channels unknown to us.

To be fair, are the memes we play worthy of sitting at the same table with Trump?

A hippopotamus from Thailand, an American squirrel, and a bottle of longevity medicine that prolongs the life of flies, can they really sit at the same table with Trump, who is firmly in the Oval Office?

• It's the New Year, one table for adults and one table for children.

• Adults drink famous liquor, and children are only worthy of Sprite.

So, I basically sold all the memes in my hands that day. My meme positions used to have huge floating profits, but because I took the initiative to reduce my IQ to 50, I did not complete the great retreat, but have been joining the great revolution.

The feeling of a dream

Three, a top signal: High school brother earns tens of millions

I believe that all my family members who play memes, and even those who don't play memes, have heard of this recent legendary story.

A high school student joined the group and sat for a month. He bet on Jelly and won 10 million yuan at a very low cost.

Of course, the rumors became more and more outrageous. I am not sure that this is 100% true, but I know that this taste is right.

Looking back at the 1-3 days before the 69K historical peak in 2021, I was sighing:

• Interns, whose returns easily beat fund bosses

• ENS’s grassroots community contributors received tens of millions in airdrops

At that moment

Just like

this moment

I liked this one. A TIME editor (of course it could also be a hacker) can immediately reap countless SOLs with a fake tweet.

I ask you, what does this mean?

It's not that making money is not possible - experts can always make money, even at the bottom of a bear market.

But if the subject becomes an ordinary person:

Intern makes a lot of money, ENS contributor makes a lot of money, high school makes a lot of money, editor makes a lot of money.

It means: [At this moment, everyone's hands are particularly loose]

Friends who often play cards know that only when the floating profit is extremely high will they become loose.

This represents that the greed index has reached its true peak.

This is a super top signal.

So, on the 30th, I cleared almost all the altcoins, leaving only BTC, and a small number of mainstream coins ETH/SOL/DOGE exchange coins.

Although there are still losses, it is still a victory of a few melons and two dates.

I admire Gao Gaoge's wonderful operation, and I also respect the market law of this alternative investment product.

Fourth, about BN's doubts and BN's response

Alas, to be honest, I don't want to talk about this topic.

As a former CEX practitioner, I have seen this set of consultant-listing-shipping drama too many times. From the initial anger to the gradual numbness later, I have long been accustomed to it.

However, in the past, this thing was placed under the table, which was considered "small corruption is a lubricant for development";

It was considered "no fish in clear water", and the water was slightly turbid, which was part of the rules of the game.

After all, we are not living in a utopia, not in a vacuum hometown.

However, the most taboo thing about this thing is to bring it up from under the table.

I have no intention of criticizing BN or Yijie, because this thing exists in almost every CEX.

If this is placed in the traditional world, to exaggerate, it is a huge scandal that can make hundreds of people unemployed and dozens of people go bankrupt.

Maybe Yijie should not respond, learn from the stars to do the cold treatment, and give retail investors some hope.

However, our industry is mostly skeptical, and a huge scandal is a heavy hammer that hits the heart of every holder hard.

It has crushed the faith of many people.

Our industry really needs "God" because it is maintained by consensus.

But when everyone found out that the public servants under the original "God" also wanted to make some quick money, their faith suddenly disappeared, and soon projected to the relationship with God - All the altcoins on BN are facing huge doubts and eyes from retail investors at this moment. Since AI and HOOK are like this, are other coins really better?

V. The script of the future

If we follow the view of carving a boat to find a sword, this decline is very similar to 5.19. It is recommended that everyone review the trend after 5.19.

Trends after 5.19 in 21, source: Bitfinex

If we follow the script of 5.19, the following will be a repeated shock plot lasting two months, until the most loyal people are washed out, and then a new $Bitcoin ATH will be ushered in.

Of course, some people suspect that this is the plot of 12.4, AKA the beginning of the bear market.

From my inner inclination alone, I hope this is 5.19.

After all, the US national strategic reserve of Bitcoin is becoming clear, and never underestimate the huge influence of this matter, really.

Even if Bitcoin reaches 85K-88K, I am willing to add some more positions.

Six, my position distribution

My current position:

40% BTC

20% mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB/MNT)

40% stable currency financial management

Bitcoin is my eternal belief. I think I will never sell BTC, nor will I do swing trading again.

Reasons for keeping ETH:

To be honest, the belief in ETH is weakening.

However, objectively speaking, the president's DeFi project is buying ETH.

I don't know if many of my family members are speculating in US stocks. Many people regret not following orders [Nancy Pelosi, the female stock god of Capitol Hill].

Image source: CommonWealth Magazine

Pelosi's highlight was once the Speaker of the House of Representatives, which is only the third position in American politics.

• And now Trump is the real president. This crypto president is holding a large position in ETH (although it has been deposited in the untraceable Coinbase custody), which should not be underestimated.

• Secondly, ETH has fallen to today's position. I think it has reached the extreme of FUD, and there may be a thought that things will turn around when they reach the extreme. I can't buy when no one cares, at least don't sell when no one cares.

Reasons for retaining SOL:

There is a small probability of ETF;

However, the cooling of AI narrative and the short-term decline of MEME are two small clouds.

Reasons for retaining DOGE:

Grayscale has launched Dogecoin Trust, and Doge also has a small probability of ETF

In addition, Musk is working hard in the D.O.G.E department;

I think I can sleep well in the same car with the world's richest man and "Director of the U.S. National Development and Reform Commission."

Reasons for retaining exchange tokens:

Let's be frank, there is no possibility for exchanges to get on a bigger stage.

Coinbase will not list BNB, and Binance will not list MNT.

But the exchange is the only institution in our industry that can make money and give profit;

If the bear market really comes, the exchange tokens are relatively more resistant to falling, and occasionally an IEO can make up for the loss. This is the only way to survive the bear market.

VII. Cruel view: The good days of the old Dengs are over

In addition to the above, I will most likely not hold any Shanzhai in a large position in the short term - the reason is also very simple, inflation is too fast.

The speed at which new users and new funds enter the market is simply not as fast as the speed at which these coin-issuing maniacs print.

Source: Decrypt

A few days ago, there was a statistic that the most powerful account on pumpfun issued 17,000 coins in 3 months.

Not 170, not 1,700, but 17,000! His contribution alone may exceed the total amount of tokens issued in the entire bull market in 2017.

Why did the investment strategy of Lao Deng fail?

Too many choices

Too many angles!

Even there are N CAs at the same angle

Where can Lao Deng’s copycat be?

The favorite strategy of Lao Deng: Buy a waist-level Shansai at 100M or 200M.

Hold it for 2-3 months and bet it will outperform Bitcoin.

However, it is now probably not even close to outperforming ETH.

And Marshal P's favorite strategy: buy a project with a valuation of 10K in the inner market.

Run away after 30 minutes.

Real men never look back at the explosion.

Obviously, in today's token inflation, Marshal P is far better than Lao Deng.

I am not calling on everyone to become a young P general, I just hope that everyone at least does not become Lao Deng.

Eight, the best position: 50% Bitcoin + 50% stablecoin financial management

In addition, I sincerely recommend that everyone hold a certain amount of U to get through the next period of time.

You have to accept the fact that no one can really sell at the super top.

The top of the mountain is every 4 years. You are asked to find a day to sell in more than 1,000 days. The probability is 1/1000. Naturally, only a few people can do it. All of them are super lucky.

At this stage, half position is the best choice.

50% of your principal is invested in financial management. We don’t talk about mining or arbitrage.

We will do the simplest Ethena USDE. Now Pendle can still give an interest rate of 18%.

If you are too lazy to do Pendle, just throw it into AAVE or mainstream CEX financial management, and there is still 10%.

The other 50% is mainly Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day when the US Bitcoin strategic reserve arrives.

With both interest cash flow and dreams and beliefs,

you will definitely feel comfortable,

guaranteed.

Of course, you can cut out another 5% to match a little bit of the altcoin you truly believe in, whether it is ETH, SOL, DOGE or any coin you believe in.

Cut out another 5% of the funds to go to PVP for a few rounds. If you win, you can enjoy it. If you lose, you can just treat it as consumption. Keep your hand feeling. Isn't it beautiful?

Finally, this kind of Tai Chi diagram distribution is formed.

Ninth, Finally

I am quite satisfied with my current position. After all, this is my 8th year in the crypto industry. After so long, I have some experience.

The only thing I regret is that I have been playing in Osaka during the New Year. I was lazy and didn't sort out these thoughts and send them out in the first time.

The same strategy, if said a few days ago, may help many people, but if said a few days later, it becomes a post-mortem review.

However, it is never too late to mend the fold.

I hope every family member can get their own big results in the crypto market.

Of course, if you can't get big results, then keeping some small results and earning more spiritual wealth and social wealth is also worth the trip.