What factors have led BTC to a new high of $110,000? How much higher can it go in the future?

Deng Tong, Golden Finance

On May 22, 2025, the price of BTC broke through $110,000 after more than 4 months, setting a new record high. The new high of BTC also led to the rise of the entire crypto market. Trump posted on the Truth Social platform to celebrate this historic moment: "BITCOIN ALL TIME HIGHS, ENJOY!!".

What factors helped BTC reach a new high of $110,000? How much higher can it rise in the future?

1. The Hong Kong Legislative Council formally passed the Stablecoin Bill in the third reading

On May 21, 2025, the Hong Kong Legislative Council formally passed the Stablecoin Bill in the third reading. The bill will come into effect as long as the Chief Executive of Hong Kong signs it and publishes it in the Gazette. This means that Hong Kong will formally implement stablecoin regulation. Anyone who issues a fiat stablecoin in Hong Kong, or a fiat stablecoin that claims to be anchored to the value of the Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong or outside Hong Kong, must apply for a license from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. According to the current progress, the crypto industry may see the birth of a compliant Hong Kong stablecoin by the end of 2025.

The Stablecoin Bill paves the way for a regulated framework that can make the region a global leader in digital assets and Web3 development.

For details, please see: 《Hong Kong's compliant stablecoin is coming. A quick look at its history and main contents》

2. The US "GENIUS Act" passed the final debate

On May 20, the US Senate passed the final debate of the "GENIUS Act" with 66 votes in favor and 32 votes against, of which 16 Democratic members crossed party lines to vote in favor. The bill provides a solid regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States.

In addition to the Bitcoin spot ETF approved in January 2024, this is the most important regulatory development in the history of cryptocurrency, and it may even be more important than that.

The bill gives the federal government support for stablecoins, allowing large banks to issue stablecoins and allowing merchants to accept them.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that once we achieve the normal transfer of US dollars on the blockchain network - and the world's largest financial institutions are involved - then it will only be a small step to transfer stocks, bonds and other financial assets on the same track.

For details, please see: "Bitwise: The impact of the GENIUS bill is comparable to BTC spot ETF Wall Street and cryptocurrency are getting married"

Third, the Texas House of Representatives has passed the SB 21 bill on three readings

The Texas House of Representatives has passed the SB 21 bill on three readings, which aims to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state. The bill was passed with 101 votes in favor and 42 votes against, and will now be submitted to Texas Governor Greg Abbott to sign into law or veto.

The bill allows the comptroller to invest in any cryptocurrency with a market value of more than $500 billion in the past 12 months. Currently, the only cryptocurrency that meets that requirement is Bitcoin.

Before the vote, state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione told the Senate that the bill "passed a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which is essential to solidifying Texas' leadership in the digital age. Now we embrace a modern asset with traditional attributes for the future." 

If Abbott signs SB 21, Texas will become the second state in the U.S. to allow the creation of a cryptocurrency reserve. On May 6, New Hampshire became the first state to allow the creation of a cryptocurrency reserve after Governor Kelly Ayotte signed House Bill 302.

Currently, 26 U.S. states have introduced 47 strategic Bitcoin reserve bills, and 13 effective bills have been introduced at the federal level.

Fourth, trade war easing

On May 12, the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement pointed out that China will accordingly amend the ad valorem tariffs imposed on US goods as stipulated in the Tax Commission Announcement No. 4 of 2025: Among them, 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% of the tariffs on these goods, and canceling the tariffs on these goods in accordance with the Tax Commission Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025; take necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the United States from April 2, 2025.

Bitcoin soared to an all-time high after the interim trade agreement reached between the United States and China eased macroeconomic concerns and boosted investor confidence.

Aurelie Barthere, chief research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, believes that the 90-day tariff suspension and the cooperative tone in the negotiations eliminate the risk of "sudden escalation", which has a significant impact on the risk appetite of traditional and cryptocurrency investors.

For details, please see: Joint Statement of Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks

V. Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Negotiations

On May 15, Ukrainian President Zelensky pointed out that Kiev is ready for "any form of negotiations" to end the conflict with Russia. Trump once said: I will continue to work with Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict. The Kremlin spokesman also pointed out that Russia and Ukraine must have direct dialogue to find a way to ceasefire.

Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex Exchange, said that Bitcoin started in May in "near-perfect condition, catalyzed by rare factors such as geopolitical downgrades, improved regulatory environment and macroeconomic tailwinds." "The ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have resolved one of the main engines of geopolitical turmoil in the past two years."

Six, stocks, bonds and currencies

The US dollar, US stocks and US bonds fell simultaneously - the US dollar fell for three consecutive days, the 10-year US bond yield broke through 4.6%, and the US stock market also saw the largest single-day decline in nearly a month. Last night, the US Treasury issued $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds, with a winning yield of 5.047%. This was the only second 20-year Treasury auction with a yield of more than 5%, 24 basis points higher than 4.810% in April.

This is a severe test of the US financial credibility and the global pricing system. If even stable long-term Treasury bonds cannot get enough demand, the real "crushing moment" of the financial market may be closer than we think. In the next few days, every percentage point upward movement of the 10-year yield will be a key touchstone for whether the market will regain confidence.

For details, please see: 《The Straw That Broke the Camel of America》

VII. Trump Dinner is about to start

The "Trump Dinner" will officially start in the early morning of the 23rd, Beijing time. Trump will invite the 220 people with the largest amount of "Trump Coins" to participate in the dinner, and the top 25 holders will have the opportunity to visit the White House. "This will be a once-in-a-lifetime and unforgettable night with US President Trump."

According to data analysis by blockchain analysis company Nansen, the price of this ticket is not cheap. These "winners" spent on Trump's official cryptocurrency token $TRUMP from US$55,000 to US$37.7 million. These "winners" spent a total of US$394 million on Trump's official cryptocurrency, although some of them have sold some or all of their holdings after the competition.

For details, please see: 《Trump Crypto Dinner: Average Cost per Person Exceeds One Million Dollars, 70% of Participants Are Not Americans?》

Eight, how high can BTC rise in the future?

• The Bitcoin Quantile Model Update shows that the Bitcoin market reflects the same "heat" as the highs driven by spot ETFs after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump and in the fourth quarter of 2024. The model uses quantile regression to map Bitcoin's price stages on a logarithmic scale, indicating that the cryptocurrency is in a transition zone, a critical moment before the acceleration stage. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Bitcoin rose 45% after entering a price discovery period above $74,500.  Once entering the acceleration phase, it may trigger the next stage or mid-term trend of BTC, which is usually in the range of 33% to 66%. According to the model, BTC is expected to gradually reach the target price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe: BTC price may rise to $200,000, "because more and more people are tired of the continued depreciation of the dollar."

• MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe: BTC price may rise to $200,000, "because more and more people are tired of the continued depreciation of the dollar."

• Anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 said:  A price target of more than $200,000 in 2025 is a "reasonable" expectation.

• Analyst Mags said: Bitcoin prices are entering the "biggest bull market in history". According to Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, the highest price is expected to reach around $215,000.