Virtual ups and downs: short-term decline, a "litmus test" for long-term value?

Recently, many participants in the Virtual ecosystem have been comparing the prices of some well-known popular projects when they were first launched with the current prices:

The prices of quite a few projects have fallen by 30%, 40% or even 50%.

This result has made many participants pessimistic again.

In fact, this result is not surprising to me at all.

Many of these projects have not even launched mature products or only have products but a very small customer base. Such projects have a 10-fold or even 100-fold increase as soon as they are launched. There must be water in it. Once the heat is over, if the product has not made much progress, it is normal for the price to fall.

These products have only been issued for one or two months, how could there be obvious progress?

So such a price drop has nothing to do with the project itself. It just reflects the normal return of the market after the emotions have dissipated.

In my opinion, the real test has not come yet.

I have shared in the previous article that the real test will come in half a year at the slowest and three months at the fastest.

Because then people will have to look at the results in a down-to-earth manner: since the launch of Genesis Launches, has there been another project like AIXBT among these AI Agents that have successfully raised funds?

If there is, even if there is only one, this test will be temporarily passed, and the development of the Virtual ecosystem will usher in a higher wave later, otherwise the team will face difficult challenges again.

As for such market performance causing the participants' emotions to turn from optimism to pessimism a while ago, it is also very normal.

Since this is an ecosystem that can be participated in without permission, there must be some (or even most) participants in this ecosystem who only focus on short-term price fluctuations.

Not to mention the Virtual ecosystem, even most of the Bitcoin holders are such people. Let's wait and see when Bitcoin enters a bear market, and a lot of Bitcoin holders will be pessimistic and desperate by then.

The expression of these emotions is secondary, but like every project when it falls, some community members will give various suggestions to the project when expressing their emotions.

But many of these suggestions focus on how to raise the price of the project in the short term.

This immediately reminds me of Ethereum a few months ago.

At that time, the mood of the Ethereum ecosystem fell to a low point, and the community was also full of various emotions about Ethereum and made many suggestions. So, I wrote in an article that what I was most worried about at the time was not the future of Ethereum, but that Vitalik could not withstand the "pressure" brought to him by some community members and change the core of Ethereum.

Because only a few of these opinions are where Ethereum should improve, and most of the suggestions given by "pressure" will lead Ethereum astray and even shake the foundation of Ethereum.

Now Virtual is facing a similar situation:

Only a small part of the suggestions in the community are conducive to the long-term development of the project and the long-term development of the ecology, while most of them focus on short-term effects, or even simply emotional catharsis.

In fact, the price of any project fluctuates up and down most of the time, and the time to truly achieve a breakthrough and a sharp rise is very short. In any ecosystem, the final outcome of most projects is death, and only a few projects can survive to the end.

The same is true for the projects launched on Genesis Launches. It is very likely that more than 90% of the projects will end up dead, even if the remaining 10% of the projects that eventually win are fluctuating or even volatile most of the time.

So the current sharp rise and fall of these projects are normal.

For short-term operators, it is normal to take profits and leave. But for long-term participants, I think we should pay more attention to the development of the project itself, and at present, we should give the project more time to refine.

For the Virtual team, I think that in addition to optimizing some existing mechanisms, it is more important to quickly launch and iterate the ACP protocol.

I think if the ACP protocol can succeed, it is the most likely to pull this ecosystem out of emotions and games, and become the key to actually creating value and generating innovative applications---I don't want this team to be disturbed by some short-sighted opinions, and I don't want them to be blurred by some short-sighted opinions and ignore more important construction content.

The purpose of my participation in these projects is to see what level the project can reach after making substantial progress, which is at least a few months later. I don't pay much attention to the price fluctuations of the project before it has made substantial progress.

Duan Yongping often says in his Q&A: Do the difficult and right thing.

This is very difficult and challenging for any entrepreneur. But only by doing this can a great team and a great project be achieved.

A good project and team are very rare. Whenever I find a project and team with such potential in the ecosystem, I especially hope that they can persist in doing difficult but correct things.