Trump’s love affair with Bitcoin

Author: Huo Huo, Source: Vernacular Blockchain

On September 15, Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate and former president of the United States, escaped another assassination attempt. This was the second assassination attempt Trump encountered in just two months. Just on July 13, Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, causing his right ear to be injured.

Since Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US election on July 21, Trump's competitor has changed from 81-year-old Biden to Harris, who is nearly 20 years younger and energetic, and Harris's support rate has been rising, making the situation that seemed to be a sure win confusing again.

In order to win more support, Trump took the lead in frequently showing goodwill to the encryption industry.At the Bitcoin Conference on July 27, Trump said that if he was re-elected, he would fully support the development of encryption and commit to making the United States a "Bitcoin superpower." Let's not talk about "How credible are Trump's Bitcoin conference promises? ", but he did make many promises to win the support of crypto voters.

From haters to fans, how did Trump's attitude towards the crypto industry come to this point today? What possible impacts will it bring?

01 Trump's "black to fan" journey on crypto assets

Trump was born on June 14, 1946, grew up in New York City, graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and is the son of real estate developer Fred Trump. With the family business, Trump accumulated considerable wealth and fame in the 1970s and 1980s. His assets involved the real estate market and multiple commercial projects in New York City, including Trump Tower and several luxury hotels and casinos.

Later, Trump became more famous for hosting the NBC reality show "The Apprentice", in which he became popular in the public eye with his public image as a "savvy businessman".

In 2015, Trump officially announced his candidacy for the 2016 US presidential election as a Republican candidate.Then in November 2016, he successfully defeated the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and was elected as the 45th President of the United States.

1) Identified anti-fans

During his presidency (January 20, 2017-January 20, 2021), Trump's attitude towards crypto assets was generally negative. His early stance on crypto can be traced back to July 2019, when he publicly criticized Bitcoin and crypto assets for the first time on Twitter. In the tweet at the time, he made it clear that he was not a "fan" of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, criticizing Bitcoin as not a real currency, and pointed out that it was "extremely volatile and based on thin air" and would not be surprised if it fell below $6,000; in addition, he expressed concerns that Bitcoin and other crypto assets might be used for illegal activities, such as drug trafficking and other illegal activities.

In 2020, Facebook plans to launch the digital currency Libra (now called Diem). Trump criticized Libra on Twitter, saying that the United States has only one real currency, that is the US dollar, and any other crypto assets that attempt to replace the US dollar should be strictly regulated. He believes that only a regulated financial system based on "strong" national currencies such as the US dollar can guarantee stability and security.

During Trump's presidency, his government also took a more conservative and strict policy stance on crypto assets:

Anti-money laundering and terrorist financing:The Trump administration's main concerns about crypto are focused on its potential illegal uses, including money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorist financing. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) under the U.S. Treasury Department has strengthened supervision of crypto asset transactions and requires crypto trading platforms to comply with anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) regulations. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has also repeatedly stressed that crypto assets pose a threat to national security and require stricter supervision.

Securities supervision:Under Trump's leadership, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continued to crack down on unregistered crypto asset securities offerings. The SEC has launched enforcement actions against several ICO projects, accusing them of failing to register as securities sales. In addition, the Trump administration has also stepped up its review of crypto trading platforms to ensure that they comply with existing securities laws.

Homeland Security and Law Enforcement Actions:During the Trump presidency, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) also increased their monitoring of crypto assets to combat cybercrime and illegal activities. The Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized that illegal activities using crypto assets (such as drug trafficking, cyber attacks, etc.) are a major threat to national security.

During the 2020 presidential election, Trump did not talk much about crypto assets, but his government team took a tougher regulatory stance on crypto assets. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and other government officials have repeatedly emphasized the need for strict regulation of crypto assets and mentioned that these assets may pose a threat to financial stability.

Overall, Trump's early remarks reflected his highly skeptical and negative attitude towards crypto assets.

2) Step by step from hater to fan

After leaving office, Trump has repeatedly criticized Bitcoin and crypto assets in media interviews. He believes that these digital assets may be used to undermine the US financial system and national security.But at the same time, he also acknowledged the rapid growth of the crypto market. He mentioned that the government should take measures to strengthen the supervision of crypto assets to prevent them from being used for illegal activities. But this tone is milder than the opposition during his previous presidency, and it also shows his attention to this field:

• Mitigated attitude

In an interview with Fox Business in 2021, Trump said that he hated Bitcoin because it was competing with the US dollar, regarded it as a "competing currency", hoped that the US dollar would become the "currency of the world", and believed that they could facilitate criminal activities, and emphasized that the government should regulate more strictly.

In an interview with One America News, Trump said that crypto assets are a "dangerous investment" and warned investors to be careful.

• Change of position

According to relevant news, Trump announced on November 15, 2022 that he would participate in the 2024 presidential election. Subsequently, using his personal brand and influence, Trump launched a series of NFTs with his own image as the content, which marked Trump's entry into the crypto asset and digital collectibles market:

December 2022: Trump launched his first NFT series, a total of 45,000 NFTs, each priced at $99. These NFTs show Trump's various virtual images, such as superheroes, historical figures, etc., which also marks his official entry into the crypto market.

June 2023: He launched the second series of NFTs, which continued to focus on Trump's image, but added some designs and themes, and introduced some rare versions.

March 2024: The third series of NFTs goes online, again emphasizing scarcity and limited edition features, while providing more interactive opportunities, such as tickets to virtual events and online meetings with Trump.

When launching NFTs, Trump called them "precious collectibles." He acknowledged the uniqueness and scarcity of NFTs and took the opportunity to attract the attention of supporters and investors, while providing fans with a new way to interact with him. In addition, in an exclusive interview with Trump by Bloomberg Businessweek on July 16 this year, he said that he would soon launch a fourth NFT series with his image as the content.

• Going on the field to canvass votes

In 2024, Trump frequently appeared in the crypto circle and publicly issued crypto-friendly declarations many times, but before exploring the reasons behind it, it is necessary to understand the US presidential election system. The US presidential election (also known as the US general election) is held every four years and is divided into five steps: primaries, national conventions, presidential elections, electoral votes, and confirmation by the US Congress. Take this year's election as an example:

Primaries:From mid-January to June 2024, the Republican and Democratic parties will use primaries or caucuses (also called caucuses) in each state to select the party candidates supported by the state.

National Conventions:The Republican National Convention will be held from July 15 to 18, 2024, and the Democratic National Convention will be held from August 19 to 22, respectively, to select the party's presidential candidate and officially announce the vice presidential candidate who will run together.

Presidential General Election:It will be held on November 5, 2024, and citizens can vote for any presidential candidate (regardless of which party the citizen belongs to, whether he or she participated in the primary election, or who he or she voted for before).

Electoral College Voting:The US presidential election adopts the Electoral College system, in which each state allocates electoral votes according to population. A candidate who wins a majority of popular votes in a state can win all the electoral votes in that state, and can be elected president if he wins more than 270 electoral votes. The Electoral College votes are held in each state on December 17. Before January 3, 2025, the electoral votes are archived and transferred to Congress.

Congress confirms:According to US federal law, the US Congress must hold a meeting on January 6, 2025 to count and announce the results of the Electoral College vote, and the winner will hold a presidential inauguration ceremony at the Capitol on January 20, 2025.

This also explains why Trump has frequently made many promises that are beneficial to the development of cryptocurrencies in all presidential campaigns so far in 2024.As a candidate, he supported accepting donations from crypto assets early this year, and also attended the 2024 Bitcoin Conference held on July 27 and delivered a speech. Specific statements or promises about Bitcoin or crypto assets are as follows:

A. Bitcoin has developed independently, and more and more people want to use Bitcoin for payment, and they are also preparing to accept Bitcoin, but some supervision is needed.

B. If re-elected as president, his government will not crack down on the use of Bitcoin or other crypto assets through regulatory agencies, and he expressed the hope that American crypto companies will not be expelled overseas

C. If re-elected, he will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, and firmly support the development of the crypto industry

D. He proposed to create a national Bitcoin reserve at the Bitcoin Conference and to establish a Bitcoin and Crypto Assets Advisory Committee to support the development of the industry. He also said that if elected, he would fire Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to end his "persecution" of the crypto industry.

E. Will secure all Bitcoin jobs in the U.S. during his presidency to promote innovation and economic growth, and will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

F. In an interview, Trump mentioned that Bitcoin mining may be the last line of defense against CBDC, and hopes that Bitcoin will be made in the United States to help achieve energy dominance.

G. Crypto assets will not disappear. The U.S. crypto industry has a solid foundation, but it is still in its infancy. He emphasized that he does not want other countries to dominate this field.

H. Plans will be made to make the United States the "global crypto asset capital."

I. In addition, in February this year, Trump's campaign team announced that it would accept donations of crypto assets. Supporters can donate any crypto assets through the Coinbase Commerce product. Trump's campaign team's crypto assistant revealed that he had asked whether Bitcoin could be used to solve the U.S. national debt problem.

J. On September 16, Trump and his son also announced the co-founding of a new crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, which aims to become a decentralized financial (DeFi) platform that provides services such as borrowing and digital asset storage.

As the U.S. election (early November) approaches, it can be seen that Trump's attitude towards crypto has changed from suspicion and opposition to acceptance and support because he has gradually realized the importance of crypto assets in politics, economy and technology, and incorporated them into political strategies, proposing a number of policies and suggestions to support the development of crypto assets.

Trump's pro-crypto stance does attract some Republican voters and supporters of the crypto industry, and his campaign has received a lot of financial support from the crypto industry, which suggests that he may further promote the development of the crypto industry in the future.

Trump has also had some impact on the crypto industry. In May of this year, after Trump made comments on crypto assets, the Trump-themed memecoin MAGA (TRUMP) soared 78% on May 9. In addition, during Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Conference, the crypto market fluctuated violently. The price of Bitcoin first fell by $1,200, falling below $67,000, and then rebounded quickly at the end of the speech, breaking through $69,000, close to the high of $70,000 in March this year.

02 Summary

In general, in order to gain more support from crypto voters, Trump has repeatedly emphasized that if he is re-elected as president, he will adopt a more relaxed crypto policy, support the establishment of a clear regulatory framework, set up a Bitcoin and Crypto Advisory Committee to develop transparent regulatory guidelines, and oppose the establishment of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), including firing the current chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission to end the "persecution" of the crypto industry, and establish a national Bitcoin reserve to enhance the United States' leadership in the global digital financial field.

It's just that there is no love without reason in the world. Trump's attitude change from "crypto-hating" to "crypto-friendly", from calling Bitcoin a scam to viewing it as technological innovation,The most direct purpose behind this change is to win votes from crypto giants and the political forces they mobilized.

David Berry, the organizer of the Bitcoin 2024 conference and CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, promised to raise $100 million in donations for Trump and mobilize more than 5 million voters to support him. Although this may be a negotiation strategy for business cooperation, such a large-scale Bitcoin conference itself shows its political power that cannot be ignored, especially among young people and people of color, who are the main supporters of encryption and the vote base that Trump is eager to win, which is an important support base for the Democratic Party.

Therefore, whether it is fundraising or votes, Trump's clear attitude is one of his strategies to seize the initiative, hit opponents, and gain the support of encryption voters. This will also prompt his opponents to adopt more friendly policy responses. Well-known investor and encryption supporter Mark Cuban once said that Harris's advisory team had consulted him about the encryption industry. And on September 22, Harris publicly expressed his support for increasing investment in artificial intelligence and encryption for the first time.

It can be said that regardless of who is elected in the future, the increasing importance of encryption voters in the US election will further promote the compliance development of the encryption industry. Under the premise of paying attention to national security and financial stability, more friendly encryption policies will be promoted to a certain extent.