Author: Charlie Liu
2025 may be seen as a watershed year in future reviews of human history, marking the transition of crypto to the mainstream.
This year, we not only have new narratives to tell, mature business models to scale, but also legal regulations recognized by the mainstream market to legitimize our position.
Established ETFs and DATs, regulated US dollars (stablecoins, tokenized deposits), regulated institutions (Wall Street), the secondary market itself (Nasdaq), and even the White House and Capitol Hill—are all making a very forward-looking judgment: the benefits of moving traditional finance and commerce onto the crypto track are worth the operational and compliance risks we previously worried about.
If 2024 was the year of the "king-maker's return" (arguably a key factor in Trump's election), then 2025 will undoubtedly be the year of "crypto mainstreaming." Below, I'll discuss my ten most important themes for 2025, and—if I had to bet on 2026—the three major macro trends I believe will truly influence next year's trajectory. 1. Encrypted Reseller Distribution Channels: ETF Channels, the DAT Craze, and Crypto IPOs In a year seemingly dominated by stablecoins, placing these reseller products first requires explanation. My reasoning is: stablecoins change 'what people do on-chain,' at best a crypto product that has found PMF (Product-Market Fit); while these resellers change 'who can hold these assets, and under what rules,' they are crypto distribution channels. Those who have started businesses know that distribution channels are more important than the specific product—because only through distribution channels can a product with PMF truly be accepted by the mainstream of the real world. In the US, the SEC allowed "physical creation and redemption" of crypto ETFs/ETPs on July 29th. This is not just a change in legal terminology; it signifies that ETF products will track the underlying asset price more closely, have less friction, and have a structure more like ordinary commodity ETFs, rather than a Frankenstein's monster specifically designed for crypto. Then, in mid-September, the SEC passed the Common Listing Standard—which the market naturally saw as an acceleration signal: this wasn't a special approval for a single product, but rather building a shelf to display a whole row of crypto ETFs, effectively accelerating the process for other cryptocurrency ETFs besides BTC. The story of "shelling" isn't limited to the ETF field. DAT (Digital Asset Asset) corporate treasuries have become another distribution channel—using listed company entities instead of fund structures to create shells in the public market. Public data shows that there are nearly 200 Bitcoin-type DAT companies. By the end of 2025, an even more interesting second-order effect emerged: the market's pricing of the "shell" itself began to become more rational, premiums were compressed, and mNAV (middle NAV) came under pressure when sentiment was low. Then came the true shell creation: the IPO public market restarted itself. Circle's listing in August (ticker symbol CRCL) is not only a milestone for Circle, but also Wall Street's endorsement of the "stablecoin" sector as a genuine business. Kraken, on the other hand, opted for a confidential filing, aiming to go public before the 2026 political cycle. In Hong Kong, HashKey completed its IPO in December, further solidifying its position as an "Asian compliance gateway." The so-called "mainstreaming" in the real world is not just about more discussion and hype, but about more compliant, numerous, and larger-scale distribution channels—a moment the crypto community has been waiting for for years. 2. Stablecoins are everywhere: PMF, white-label issuers, and the "new dollar species" Whether measured by actual usage or by their influence on public opinion, stablecoins are undoubtedly the protagonists of 2025. They have become the default dollar interface in the crypto ecosystem, and even more broadly in the fintech field. Moreover, the entire technology stack is being seriously productized by mainstream players. Stripe is the clearest signal of this. From a team structure perspective, this year it completed the acquisition of Bridge, completing its stablecoin orchestration capabilities; acquired Privy, incorporating its embedded wallet into the system; and brought in the Valora team to enhance the user experience of its crypto products for end users. From a product matrix perspective, it directly embeds stablecoin payments into the Optimized Checkout Suite, making stablecoin account capabilities the default option. This isn't just fintech and crypto companies doing PR; it's a company that truly treats stablecoins as the underlying product logic, betting that the future dollar stack will be programmable. Meanwhile, some "new dollar species" are proving that there's still room for design within the concept of "stability." For example, Ethena's USDe, regardless of whether you like its risk model, has indeed risen to a "systemically important" size, with a peak supply approaching $150 billion. Hyperliquid not only reigns supreme in perpetual contracts but also, through USDH, has made stablecoins part of its platform strategy, introducing issuer bidding and orchestrating a successful show on X, attracting almost all white-label stablecoin issuers. The underlying logic behind these phenomena is that stablecoins have become the unit of account and medium of exchange for cross-border internet balance sheets. And it is precisely this established fact that policymakers and banks can no longer ignore it. 3. A 180-degree turn by policymakers: The new script for Hong Kong, GENIUS, and the SEC. 2025 will be a year in which international financial markets shift from "complete rejection" to "full embrace" of crypto policies. Hong Kong has moved from a "regulatory sandbox" to a complete system. The Legislative Council passed the Stablecoin Ordinance in May, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stated that the relevant licensing system would officially take effect on August 1. Hong Kong's positioning is not just "crypto-friendly," but strives to become a "compliance bridge" between global capital and the Chinese market. In the United States, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act on July 18, establishing a federal framework for payment-based stablecoins. Regardless of political stance, the signal to the market is clear: stablecoins are no longer seen as guerrilla hacks, but as officially recognized, legitimate financial instruments. Meanwhile, the SEC's attitude has shifted from the suppressive stance of former Chairman Gary Gensler to strategic guidance. "Project Crypto" was officially launched and is considered the overarching framework for digital asset regulation. Even the Federal Reserve, often criticized for its slow action, held a "Payments Innovation Conference" in October with numerous fintech and crypto leaders participating. Their presentations on the panel all pointed to one direction: stablecoins are being viewed as genuine payment infrastructure, not just alternatives. 4. Tokenized Deposits: The Banks' Counterattack When stablecoins truly begin to erode payment scenarios, banks will inevitably have to play their own "digital dollar" card—wanting to retain customer relationships, maintain compliance boundaries, and unwilling to give up deposit profits. The most representative example in 2025 is undoubtedly JPMorgan Chase. In June, it created a USD deposit token POC (JPMD) on Coinbase's Base chain, explicitly describing it as: a way to map bank deposits onto a public blockchain within a permissioned group of participants. Tokenized deposits are not simply "banks issuing stablecoins"; the two are driven by different political and economic considerations: Stablecoin issuers are essentially competing with bank deposits for funds, while tokenized deposits are maintaining the existing status of deposits. Stablecoins pursue cross-platform interoperability; tokenized deposits, on the other hand, focus on maintaining the existing order within their own territories. Compared to stablecoins, which are seen as a "fintech version of the dollar," tokenized deposits are the banking system saying: we can also become programmable, but we won't hand over our balance sheets and user relationships. 5. Everything on Chain: The Allure of Tokenized Stocks, RWA, and the "24/7 Marketplace" "Everything on chain" is no longer just a slogan; by 2025, it will become a tangible product roadmap. Robinhood's opening of tokenized holdings of over 200 US stocks and ETFs to European users marks the entry of tokenization from traditional financial pilots into the main battlefield of retail distribution. When tokenized equity exposure becomes possible, collateralization, lending, structured products, and even corporate operations will naturally be drawn to this path. This will inevitably lead to further regulatory improvements—tokenized stocks force everyone to confront previously ambiguous issues such as investor protection and the boundaries of rights. On the institutional side, tokenization is filling a "yield layer": combinations of "old wine in new bottles" such as money market funds, commercial paper, and real estate are providing yield options that stablecoins have failed to offer. The biggest breakthrough in 2025 will not be technology, but institutional attitudes—institutions will begin to view on-chain issuance as a normal distribution option for traditional products, rather than an innovative experiment. 6. The Payment Network Wars: CPN vs. Global Dollar Network, and the Rise of Stablecoin Native Chains Stablecoins need not only issuers but also networks—unified standards, compliant collaboration, and distribution partners that reduce pre-deposits and friction. Circle launched Circle Payments Network (CPN), positioning itself as a compliance-oriented global stablecoin payment coordination layer. Paxos' Global Dollar Network (USDG) emphasizes an "open network," with Visa and Mastercard directly announcing the integration of multiple stablecoins. Compared to CPN's USDC-based strategy, Paxos's bet is that the real competition among stablecoins will occur at the network layer, rather than a price war between issuers. Meanwhile, a batch of new chains designed by "payment service providers" rather than "public chain idealists" have emerged: Circle launched Arc, a layer-one chain specifically designed for stablecoin financial scenarios; Tempo, with the bloodline of Stripe + Paradigm, positions itself as a "payment-first" infrastructure; and Plasma, backed by Tether, directly touts itself as a "dedicated chain for stablecoins." For fintech operators in 2026, the harsh reality is that distribution is becoming a game between payment networks, and your stablecoin strategy is gradually becoming about choosing which side to align with, rather than just who issued the stablecoin. 7. Perpetual DEXs Have Grown Up: Hyperliquid, On-Chain Microstructure, and the Blurring Boundaries of CEXs CEXs were once the dominant force in the industry, but the story began to change in 2025—even CZ publicly stated his belief that DEX trading volume would eventually surpass CEX trading volume. The real change wasn't the ideology of centralized vs. decentralized, but rather that "on-chain execution" found its Product-Market Fit (PMF), and the breakthrough point was perpetual contracts. The CoinGecko 2025 report shows that the top ten perpetual DEXs had a trading volume of approximately $1.5 trillion in 2024, a significant year-on-year increase, with Hyperliquid accounting for more than half in Q4. This is the first time we can openly say that for a certain segment of mature capital, on-chain venues are no longer "alternative channels," but are becoming the default option. CEXs reacted similarly to all vested interests: replicating functionality, lowering transaction fees, and launching product lines with an inherent "on-chain feel." Binance's ecosystem around Aster is a case of combining offense and defense—the narrative of a DEX, the distribution of a CEX, plus a roadmap that integrates the advantages of both. On the other hand, Hyperliquid's expansion into native stablecoins like USDH also demonstrates their ambition: once you win over users, you want to win over their collateral. Boundaries are rapidly blurring; the battlefield is no longer simply "on-chain vs. off-chain," but rather: risk boundaries, compliance stances, distribution entry points, and—increasingly crucially—who controls the "dollar" margin that underpins the system. 8. Agentic Commerce Truly Takes Root: Payments Enter Chat Boxes, "Trust" Becomes Infrastructure. The most important thing in the AI + Crypto intersection in 2025 is not "AI agents autonomously trading cryptocurrencies on-chain," but rather AI agents truly beginning to "spend money to buy things." Stripe and OpenAI are making "completing payments in chat" a reality—designing agent channels as primary distribution interfaces through Instant Checkout, Agentic Commerce Protocol, and Stripe's Agentic Commerce Suite. Once it's accepted that "agents can consume autonomously" isn't just a pipe dream but a real need, the role of crypto shifts significantly from "speculative asset" to "machine-to-machine settlement currency." Therefore, protocol standards that can support AI-scale become crucial: Coinbase's x402 project attempts to revive HTTP 402, turning it into an internet-level payment primitive; ERC-8004 supports a "delegation and execution constraint framework" that minimizes trust. Even Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade at the end of the year can be included in this story—it's infrastructure that "reduces costs and increases capacity," making high-frequency, small-amount interactions on-chain (or on Ethereum's protected L2) no longer counterintuitive. For Agentic Commerce, "perfect decentralization" is not a necessity. What is truly needed is: inexpensive verification, clear constraints, and a track that can still operate smoothly under real traffic. In terms of geographical distribution: AI + Crypto agentic commerce will still be centered in Silicon Valley; while the development of stablecoins and RWA is increasingly resembling a New York story. 9. Prediction Markets: Crypto-native Polymarkets Bring Information On-Chain Prediction markets truly broke out of their niche during the 2024 US presidential election—that week not only brought an unprecedented number of users but also allowed everyone to experience the perception of "odds themselves as a product" on an internet scale for the first time. By the end of 2025, this sector continued to expand, crucially because the attention it attracted had evolved into a "capital formation" story. Polymarket and Kalshi's trading volume broke records, even surpassing that during the election period. Kalshi raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion; Polymarket, meanwhile, witnessed a moment of "traditional giant endorsement"—ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, announced a strategic investment of up to $2 billion, valuing it at approximately $8 billion. From a crypto perspective, Polymarket, a global consumer information marketplace platform, is architecturally completely crypto-native—using USDC for trading and clearing on Polygon. As the product grows, it will naturally bring stablecoin tracks and L2 throughput into the mainstream cycle. The expansion of these two leading companies has led to ecosystem growth and attracted various new players to directly challenge existing platforms. The "information market/attention market" has become a completely new asset class, and crypto has reason to believe it deserves a foundational position in this global market belonging to the next generation of young people.
10. October Stress Test: New Highs, Pullbacks, and Narrative Tax
Even the best year has its moments of correction and skepticism. In 2025, that moment came in October.
Bitcoin surged to a new high above $126,000 in October, before quickly pulling back, dropping by about a third.
That move didn't feel like a "normal correction," but rather a collective reminder of an old question: what does leverage do to the narrative?
A significant micro-event was the volatility of Ethena's USDe on Binance—during volatile market conditions, USDe showed a clear decoupling on this leading platform. Although Binance later attributed the problem to its pricing/oracle mechanism and implemented compensation arrangements, this incident brought to the forefront a well-known but reluctantly acknowledged fact: When structures are complex and platforms are under pressure, "stability" remains largely a matter of confidence. This lesson at the end of the year was more structural. 2025 will propel crypto onto the mainstream, but it will quickly remind everyone that reflexivity remains the tax this system pays for "speed + leverage + composability." Wall Street's embrace brought mainstream capital, but also the side effect of liquidity constraints, especially during times of pressure to balance or liquidate other asset allocations. The crypto world's dream of a mainstream market has come true, but is the weight of its crown as light as you imagine? Three Main Themes That May Determine 2026 If I were to make ten "accurate predictions," I guarantee that 80% of them would seem wrong in retrospect next year. Therefore, it's better to outline three main themes that I believe will truly drive the narrative. The first theme: The US continues to lead and export "everything on the blockchain." The US stablecoin bill has triggered a "follow-up wave" in other international financial markets, and legislation related to market structure is also under consideration. Once the US clarifies the path for putting securities and commodity assets on the blockchain, other jurisdictions will gradually align their stance—not because they suddenly trust encryption, but because they are unwilling to voluntarily lose the issuance and trading volume in the global market. At that time, the meaning of "everything on the blockchain" will change: it will no longer be just "putting real assets on the blockchain," but will begin to incubate new assets that did not previously exist—from new forms of stocks, bonds, and funds, to various original forms that were previously difficult to define clearly as "financial products" The second point: AI × Crypto, a head-on collision between centralization and decentralization. To date, AI has been more of a "financial story of a few large companies": model companies, the three major cloud giants, and GPU/TPU manufacturers have far outpaced the market average in terms of revenue, capital expenditure, and net profit growth. When computing power, data, and distribution are highly capital-intensive and concentrated on a few balance sheets, the so-called "AI economy" is essentially "circularly held" by these few companies. In such a world, crypto isn't thinking about "whether AI agents can use tokens," but rather: In the entire agent stack, which parts do we genuinely want to remain neutral, open, and shareable, rather than left to data center owners to define themselves? Agentic Commerce is one scenario that puts this question into practice: On the one hand, agents need strong identity, accountability, and dispute resolution, which naturally pushes them towards a centralized role; on the other hand, they need programmable constraints and interoperable funds, which naturally points to an open, trustworthy, and neutral path. I believe the winning combination will likely readily acknowledge this asymmetry: centralized AI infrastructure will be used effectively where appropriate, while areas requiring openness—especially payments, permissions, and state—will remain on competitive and composable infrastructure. Thirdly: The connection between encryption and the real world is no longer just theoretical. Electricity, originally considered one of the least significant costs of AI, is likely to become one of the core entry points for its intersection with encryption. New data centers built for training and inference are increasing the already strained power grid, which also needs to cope with climate fluctuations. Energy is no longer an esoteric concept in the ESG sense, but a real growth ceiling. At this point, DePIN, a concept that once seemed marginal, has the opportunity to transform from a "narrative" into a "tool": using tokenization to incentivize the construction and financing of computing power, connectivity, and energy infrastructure, especially in areas where traditional power grid coverage is insufficient, financial models are difficult to operate, but new infrastructure is indeed needed in the AI and data era. Crypto either truly secures a place in the capital stack of these new infrastructures, or it will realize that the "RWA story" that has been hotly debated in the past two years is mostly still just a PowerPoint presentation. If you've read this far, here's another bonus: Can "ownership," as the philosophical foundation of Web3, solve the social problems that AI will exacerbate? Beneath the three main themes mentioned above lies a more severe macroeconomic backdrop. In many countries, a new generation of "middle class" is witnessing their actual purchasing power eroded year by year; simultaneously, the productivity revolution brought about by AI is hollowing out entry-level jobs that were once considered "entry tickets" in many industries, leading to unprecedentedly high youth unemployment rates. In the future, more and more income will be earned online, settled across borders, and in an environment where users trust platforms more than they trust local banks and governments. The returns on capital will accelerate with compound interest; the returns on labor will struggle to keep pace. In such a world, crypto is gradually no longer just a narrative, but a bargaining chip against impending socioeconomic pressures. Flowing on the same track are not only stablecoins, various tokens, and yield products, but also a small slice of the new capital stock: networks, infrastructure, cash flow not locked up by a single country or employer, and purchasing power no longer eroded by excessive money supply and hyperinflation. Crypto is becoming the underlying infrastructure of this new capital formation system—and whether young people and the squeezed middle class can obtain sufficient ownership slices will largely determine whether they use this system to climb out of the AI-induced poverty trap or remain firmly locked within it. The ending got a bit heavy, but it truly reflects a real-world challenge that deserves serious consideration.
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