The seemingly “dead” altcoin is actually a foreshadowing of opportunity

Author: arndxt Source: X, @arndxt_xo Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance

The market is doing what it does best: testing your beliefs.

Altcoins have been bleeding compared to BTC, and BTC dominance is close to the high of this cycle. Sentiments are splitting: on one side are the boredom of shorts, and on the other side are aggressive longs of small-cap coins.

This is not a call for "alt season tomorrow", nor is it for you to FOMO. Please be patient.

1. We are still in a bull market. But you have not "missed the opportunity".

Bitcoin is still the protagonist. From ETF inflows to corporate treasury allocations (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence keeps the BTC engine hot.

This is why altcoins look so weak—BTC sucks up most of the market liquidity. Until this narrative cools down, neither ETH nor large-cap coins will start, let alone small coins.

The signal for the start of the alt season is a significant drop in BTC dominance, not a sustained high-level shock.

2. Cycles are important, but so is market structure

Yes, the crypto market roughly follows a 4-year cycle—driven by the BTC halving, liquidity cycles, technology adoption cycles, etc. From a zoomed-in perspective, 2025 is the “second half of the game,” which is usually the stage for parabolic market outbreaks.

But this is also the stage with the most false breakouts. Looking back at 2021, altcoins really took off after ETH outperformed BTC. And now ETH/BTC is still weak. If you go all-in on small coins before ETH starts, you may be exposed to risk too early.

A smarter strategy is: Pay attention to signals of accumulation of strong currencies, such as $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK.

3. Short-term structure is more interesting - but it has not yet been confirmed

Traders are right to focus on key ranges. Once the price breaks through the upper edge of the shock, it may ignite the high-Beta altcoin market. But position management must be disciplined:

• → Use BTC as a trigger signal, not a trading target

• → Use spot to deploy low-risk positions in trending altcoins: $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV

• → Pay attention to the ETH/BTC ratio. Without ETH strength, there would be no real alt season, Period.

4. No, you won’t make 200x overnight

The real “asymmetric returns” come from:

• Early-stage, heavily invested, with established narratives and attracting attention:

  • On-chain perpetuals (Hyperliquid, Virtual)

  • ETH LRT protocols with real cash flow

  • DeFi projects with actual buyback mechanisms (such as AAVE)

  • The order of the alt season is usually:

    1. BTC hits a new all-time high

    2. ETH launches (pending)

    3. Large-cap coins rotate (some have already been seen)

    4. Mid-cap coins take off

    5. Small-cap coins rise straight up

    We are now roughly between stages 1 and 2. Be patient and add to your positions on dips.

    Narrative Overview

    Although BTC is setting new all-time highs, the entire crypto Twitter still looks tired. This emotional split is actually reasonable-For most retail investors, the meaningful charts are altcoin charts, and these charts have been sideways for months.

    Coupled with the approach of summer, the market is accustomed to the "low liquidity + sudden explosion" of this season, so the anxious atmosphere we see on the timeline has emerged.

    The "gold rush" of earnings funds

    We seem to be back in 2020. In the past week: GameStop, SharpLink, Strive, Blockchain Group, and even Trump Media announced a total purchase of more than $3 billion in BTC. The logic is simple: In a world where cash depreciates by 5% annually and long bonds barely beat inflation, Bitcoin is the only mainstream asset that beats inflation.

    There are two key points about the impact of this trend on the market:

    1. Draining spot supply——The spot absorption wave started by ETFs is continuing

    2. Establishing a risk benchmark for other fund managers——"Even retail companies that speculate on meme stocks have allocated 5%, why can't we?"

    This mainstream buying may turn what should have been a cyclical rebound into a long-term upward structural trend.

    But this also means: The more stable Bitcoin's performance, the longer the alt season may be dragged on. At present, BTC's dominance rate has shown signs of a top, but the buyer is CFO, not degen who is keen on alt rotation.

    The Battle for Capital Efficiency: AMM Swallows the Money Market

    While corporate finance is hoarding BTC, DeFi architects are breaking the boundaries between swap, mortgage and fixed income:

    • Euler connects Uniswap v4 Hooks to the lending engine, and LP automatically becomes collateral

    • Hyperdrive allows Hyperliquid users to borrow USDe with perpetual positions

    • Malda uses zero-knowledge technology to create an "arbitrary lending layer" and turn bridging into a transparent UX

    Core point: Any asset should be "used twice" in a smart contract - once for exposure and once for income.

    Liquid migration: the second layer quietly rises

    • Hyperliquid TVL rises every week

    • Base's trading volume quietly catches the express train of Virtual ecology

    • BNB chain transaction data surges (although Polyhedra is more of a scoring robot)

    Ethereum is still the main venue for mainstream funds, but the market inflows are mostly concentrated in large-cap coins such as $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK, and $PEPE.

    The "mining-selling" season for retail investors has moved to the sidechain, while the mainnet is more like a serious "Main Street".

    Meme Velocity, Buyback Wave and Beta Hunters

    AAVE's community buyback mechanism makes it the "net inflow first choice" favored by institutions. At the same time, Meme coins began to split into two factions:

    • Rotation leaders that can be configured by institutions (such as $PEPE, $VIRTUAL, $SPX6900)

    • "One-time lottery tickets" for retail users to try their luck (such as DINNER, Fartcoin)

    Interestingly: the funds on Solana are more dispersed - MEW is listed on Robinhood, JUP continues to release water, and dark horses such as BRETT and KAITO are competing for attention.

    If you are a content creator, emphasizing this fragmentation will help you jump out of the "only talk about Ethereum" narrative red ocean.

    NFT: The Forgotten Frontier

    The Ordinal craze faded, trading volume stabilized, and the so-called "ancient whales" failed to save the market.

    Before there are clear signals of monetary easing, or at least before a new narrative redefines JPEG from a luxury item to a tool,the funds that once chased NFTs have turned to Meme coins with an incentive points system.