The ancient whale holding 80,000 BTC awakens. Will the market crash?

Jessy, Jinse Finance

On July 14, BTC broke through $123,000, reaching a new high. Taking advantage of the new high of Bitcoin, the ancient whale, which built a position in 2011 and once owned 80,000 BTC (the cost price of this batch of BTC was between $0.78 and $3.37), began to transfer BTC to Galaxy Digital. As of press time, there are still 40,800 BTC left in its address.

Galaxy Digital, the platform where the whale transferred Bitcoin, has businesses covering asset management, digital infrastructure solutions, investment banking and other fields. In terms of OTC business, it supports block trading and can provide institutional clients with a large number of cryptocurrency transactions, reducing the risk of transactions being affected by the market.

On July 15, the market ushered in a correction, and Bitcoin has fallen more than 5% from its high on the 14th. The whale's transfer of Bitcoin to Galaxy Digital was interpreted by the market as a high probability of seeking to sell Bitcoin through Galaxy Digital's OTC service.

In the current market, on the one hand, there is the awakening of the ancient Bitcoin whale, and on the other hand, there is the continued buying of major institutional listed companies. Another reality is that in this round of BTC's rise, the sentiment of retail investors has not risen, and most retail investors do not have Bitcoin in their hands.

What stage has the current market reached? Is the correction at this time a good time for retail investors to get on board?

Is the whale's transfer of BTC a selling pressure?

The abnormal movement of the ancient whale has become the focus of market attention. According to the on-chain data, this whale, who built a position as early as 2011 and once owned 80,000 BTC, began to transfer large amounts of money to Galaxy Digital in the early morning of July 15. Although it is not yet confirmed whether it is sold directly, such behavior is often regarded as "potential selling pressure" by the market.

Data shows that as of press time, there are about 40,800 BTC left in this address, which is still at a high level. This shows that although the whale has taken action, it is not a "clearance-style" exit, but more like starting to seek institutional channels for shipment. And these bitcoins are more likely to be sold to entities capable of taking over in the form of OTC.

On July 15, the price of BTC fell back, falling more than 5% from the high point on the 14th, and the short-term market sentiment was affected to a certain extent. Despite this, from historical experience, whenever the "ancient whale" wakes up, it is often one of the signs of the mid-term bull market, rather than a top signal.

In the industry, the awakening of the ancient whale will be compared with the previous selling by the German government. From June 19 to July 12, 2024, the German government successively sold 50,000 confiscated bitcoins. At that time, the price of bitcoin fell sharply during the sell-off, from about $65,000 on the first day of sale on June 19, to $53,717 on July 6, a drop of more than 22%. The entire cryptocurrency market was also affected.

At that time, the German government's selling behavior as a large currency holder triggered investors' fear, uncertainty and suspicion.

At this time, people can't help but wonder whether the awakening and selling of the whale will bring a huge shock to the market like the last time the German government sold it. After all, the number of bitcoins in its hands far exceeds the German government's holdings.

Institutions continue to buy, can retail investors still enter the market?

However, compared with the period when the German government sold, the current market environment has changed a lot. The biggest change may be the continued buying of institutional investors.

Some analysts said that if the whales were selling this time, they would also match institutional buyers through Galaxy Digital's OTC service.

Indeed, institutional investors are continuing to buy. According to statistics from multiple data sources such as Bitcoin Treasuries, as of mid-July 2025, more than 260 well-known companies and institutions in the world publicly held Bitcoin, with a total holding of nearly 3.5 million. Participants include listed companies (more than 140), private companies, sovereign countries, and even ETFs and various funds. From a geographical distribution perspective, major financial centers such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Hong Kong, China are at the forefront.

For example, MicroStrategy purchased 4,225 bitcoins between July 7 and July 13, and as of now, it holds a total of 600,000 bitcoins.

In the past year, the number of wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC has increased significantly. The total amount of Bitcoin held by this type of medium-sized addresses increased from 3.9 million to 4.76 million. This shows that small institutions, funds and even wealthy individuals are accumulating Bitcoin more actively.

The continued purchases by institutions and wealthy people may explain why the price of BTC has repeatedly hit new highs in multiple "bad news". The institutional buying behind it not only has financial advantages, but also has the willingness to allocate in the medium and long term, rather than short-term speculation. At present, their attitude towards BTC has shifted from waiting and testing to strategic layout. On the other side of the ancient whales transferring BTC, the entire traditional financial world is quietly taking over.

Unlike the previous rounds of bull markets, the rise of BTC this time was not accompanied by an obvious outbreak of retail investor sentiment. The discussion of BTC market on social platforms such as X is less active, and the growth rate of small addresses on the chain is also at a relatively low level. From another perspective, this may be a signal of "getting on board".

Entering the market at the end of a bull market with high emotions and FOMO is often a typical feature of taking over at a high level. The current calmness of the market may mean that the bubble has not yet formed, and the real "retail investor wave" may not have arrived yet.

Of course, this does not mean that you can buy without thinking. After all, Bitcoin is no longer a game for retail investors. In the market structure of ancient whales and institutional games, how retail investors control their positions and pay attention to macro changes is the key to surviving in this market for a long time.