Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows decline, but BTC whales indicate an acceleration of the bull market

Author: Biraajmaan Tamuly, CoinTelegraph; Compiler: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Summary

• Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows plunged more than 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in four weeks.

• While strong ETF inflows typically drive Bitcoin higher, recent data shows that price swings can occur independently.

• Despite short-term selling pressure, long-term buying by BTC whales suggests that BTC's upward trend may continue.

Spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows in the Bitcoin market plunged more than 90%, from $3 billion in the last week of April to $228 million this week.

Spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows in the Bitcoin market plunged more than 90%, from $3 billion in the last week of April to $228 million this week.

Historically, slowing ETF inflows have had an impact on BTC prices, especially when daily inflows exceed $1.5 billion for several consecutive weeks. To understand the potential impact of ETFs on Bitcoin, let's analyze four key periods of high spot ETF activity and their correlation with BTC price movements.

Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows. Source: SoSoValue

In the first quarter of 2024, from February 2 to March 15, spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $11.39 billion in seven weeks, pushing the price up 57%. However, BTC prices peaked in the fifth week as the $4.8 billion in inflows in the last two weeks did not push up its value.

Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Similarly, in Q3 2024, Bitcoin saw inflows of $16.8 billion in the nine weeks from October 18 to December 13, driving its price up 66%. However, when inflows slowed in week 10, the price fell 9%, reinforcing the link between ETF inflows and price corrections.

In Q1 2025, inflows reached $3.8 billion in two weeks (January 17-24), leading to an all-time high of $110,000 on January 20, but the overall price fell 4.8%.

More recently, inflows of $5.8 billion in Q2 2025 (April 25-May 9) drove the price up 22%, although in the previous two weeks, the price had risen 8% despite negative net inflows.

Correlation between Bitcoin price and spot ETFs. Data source: SoSoValue, Cointelegraph

These data challenge the view that spot ETF inflows continue to drive price increases. While strong inflows in the third quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025 suggest that strong capital inflows have driven price increases, data from the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 show that prices may stagnate or fall despite large inflows. The uptick in Q2 2025 is partially independent of spot ETF activity, suggesting other drivers such as lower US tariffs, retail investor interest, or accumulation by Bitcoin whales.

Given current inflows of $228 million, historical trends lean bearish, suggesting a possible pullback. However, recent whale activity suggests the opposite, painting a more bullish picture.

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure, but Whales May Continue the Trend

Bitcoin faces selling pressure in the short term as the buy/sell pressure differential turns negative, according to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal. The chart shows that whales began selling Bitcoin between $105,000 and $100,000, a level Wedson marked as risky. This bearish trend, coupled with the negative cumulative volume difference, indicates selling pressure in the short term.

Bitcoin buy/sell pressure increment. Source: X.com

However, long-term buying pressure remains strong, suggesting that the decline is a correction rather than a reversal. CryptoQuant data shows that whales have been taking profits relatively less in the current period than in previous price peaks. Anonymous analyst Blitzz Trading noted: "Compared to previous rallies, we can see that whales have taken significantly less profit in the recent surge. This may indicate that the upward trend may continue. This chart is worth paying close attention to."

Bitcoin whales. Source: CryptoQuant