Similar history: Is SOL at the critical point of breakthrough again?

Source: XT Research Institute

This week, Bitcoin once again hit $70,000. The crypto market, driven by BTC, generally rebounded. In this turmoil, Solana stood out. This month, Solana and its ecosystem performed exceptionally strongly, rising from $121 at the beginning of the month to $193, with a price increase of nearly 60%. The entire ecosystem TVL is also far ahead of other public chains, and the performance is remarkable... Especially after the huge decline in the past two years, the rise of SOL now makes many people slap their thighs. Who still remembers that SOL was struggling at $20 for more than half a year last year?

Surging breakthrough - Solana's rise to the top of the new crypto market

Everyone was surprised that Solana could rebound so quickly back to the highs. Starting this week, BTC rebounded and broke through $70,000 before pulling back again, opening a new round of volatile market. SOL and its ecosystem have performed very steadily, rising 30% in the past 2 weeks. The entire ecosystem remains strong among all public chains, and the ecological activity has surpassed Ethereum several times. Can we predict that in the near future, SOL will be able to break through the previous high of $249?

Looking back at the rise of Solana last year, it stood firm at $60, $120, and then reached $200 this year, almost breaking through the previous high. Even when the entire market fell sharply, Solana firmly held the support level of $140. And with the latest rebound of Bitcoin, Solana took off strongly again, directly breaking through $190 and rushing towards the $200 mark. Ecosystems are flourishing, and various MEMEs are frequently launched... This time, Solana may really have to fully flip Ethereum.

We can see that SOL hit a historical high of $259 in November 2021, which reflected the market's great expectations for its high-performance public chain and Defi applications at the time. As the overall crypto market entered a bear market, Solana also fell sharply. Then in November 2022, the FTX bankruptcy broke out, falling to a low of $8 that no one dared to copy, which dealt a heavy blow to Solana and its ecosystem.

In fact, the high-performance public chain built by Solana during the bull market in 2021 was not ideal in actual adoption. At that time, most of the popular hype projects such as Meme coin were concentrated on the Ethereum and BNB chains. In this round, from the initial emergence of Meme in October 23 to the outbreak of Tugou copycat Meme in March 24, Solana's high-speed public chain advantage has finally been fully utilized. The team shifted the focus of ecological construction to the Meme project. With the right timing, right location and right people, Solana's crazy Meme season was achieved, injecting new vitality and growth momentum into Solana. The on-chain DEX activity once again reached a peak on the 19th of this month, with daily trading volume reaching an astonishing US$2.5 billion.

From silence to rise - leading the new trend of encryption with ecological explosion

In the past two years, Solana has experienced ups and downs. From the rapid development in 2021 to the tragic decline in 2022, Solana was once in a downturn. But at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023, the Solana ecosystem ushered in its own summer carnival. In just 2 years, Solana's DeFi infrastructure has become more complete. Combined with the huge surge in HNT, HONEY, and MOBILE, the market has attracted widespread attention and enthusiasm for the Depin track. Immediately afterwards, the Solana ecosystem intensively launched a series of high-profile new projects, such as PYTH, JTO, JUP, etc., and cooperated with the generous national airdrop plan to enrich the prosperity of the Solana ecosystem. RNDR was also renamed RENDER and moved to the Solana ecosystem. It can be said that Solana has shifted from initially pursuing the number of projects to focusing more on the transaction volume and popularity of the ecosystem. This strategic shift in focus has allowed Solana to stand out in the fierce competition among public chains and reshape its influence.

Recently, Solana's on-chain DEX has surpassed Ethereum's transaction volume again in the past 30 days, and users' enthusiasm for trading Meme remains high. Currently, the daily transaction volume of the leading Meme exceeds 50 million US dollars. Starting with BONK and WIF, Solana set off a Meme craze. In December 2023, Bonk on Solana started a crazy rise, driving the Meme outbreak of the entire Sol ecosystem; in February 2024, Hat Dog also set off a wave of enthusiasm on Sol; in March, BOME started a new round of "money-making concept" Meme; and later, Pump.fun platform's silky one-click coin issuance led to frequent golden dogs.

These skyrocketing Meme tokens have not only brought about a rich wealth effect, but have also thoroughly ignited the Solana Meme ecosystem. This is also due to the perfect Meme issuance and trading system that has been formed within the Solana ecosystem. From liquidity sharing platforms Orca and Jupiter to DEX trading platforms Raydium and Metaora, and to fully automatic trading bots, Solana has emerged with a variety of infrastructures dedicated to serving Meme projects.

More importantly, the founding team has also publicly expressed support for certain Meme projects, and is constantly innovating and improving the trading experience. For example, Blinks and Actions, which were newly released this year, although they were highly discussed, were not well released during the callback cycle of the crypto market. The related concept hot spot Meme STARCAT (after the release of Blinks, Meteora launched the first MEME with a rebate model with a referral link, in which the referrer would receive a transaction rebate) was short-lived and did not produce the Meme God disk that everyone expected, and ultimately did not lead to the expected large-scale application... But it can be said that the innovative spirit of the ecosystem has been practiced in this Meme craze, creating a hotbed for the future Meme legend.

Solana data

• Market value changes: The overall market cooled down in the second quarter, and SOL experienced dramatic price fluctuations. In early April, the market value once surged to $90.2 billion, setting a record high. In May, it fell back by 37% to $56.7 billion, and then stabilized around $60 billion. Last week, it rebounded to above $85 billion, showing strong recovery ability and being relatively resistant to declines among public chains.

• TVL: Deflama data shows that Solana TVL is US$5.4 billion, second only to Ethereum and Tron. Compared with the top of US$10 billion in November 21, there is still nearly double the room for growth. However, it can be seen that TVL has increased significantly and steadily this year, and the future is promising.

  
  

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  SOL pledged in the liquidity protocol has been rising steadily since October last year, indicating that investors are optimistic about the value of SOL in the long term, of which 59% is locked in the Jito protocol.

  

  • DEX transaction volume: The DEX transaction volume of Sol ecosystem has surpassed Ethereum several times, with a total transaction volume of 426.8 billion. In July, the recent 24-hour and 7-day transaction volumes were comparable to those of Ethereum. Among them, transactions in Raydium were the most active, with a market share of more than 60%.

  

  

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    • Active wallets: Since March this year, the number of active wallets on the Sol network has maintained a high level and has not been affected by the market correction in the previous two months. The number of daily active wallets in late July has been above 1 million.

    

    • NFT: NFT transactions have been significantly more active on the Sol chain this year.

    

    The SOL team has also been making many attempts for ecological prosperity:

    In early July, SEND directly posted on X to show Blinks' 100+ use cases, and received official support from the founder of SOL. Then 100,000 Send It series NFTs were launched, and combined with the Blinks function, you can directly click the Collect button on the X page to cast, and the SEND 100,000 NFTs were swept away.

    In addition, the ecological leader NFT Mad Lads recently rebounded to 60 sol in floor price. The increase in its own value + the support of many airdrops make it worthy of long-term investment.

    This month's Golden Dog MEME

    XT Exchange focuses on discovering the first-level Golden Dog on the chain. Driven by research, it screens out the risks of on-chain contracts for users and releases the latest hot Meme coins at the first-hand speed. Buy value coins - go to XT.com.

    The following is the increase in Sol after Memecoin was listed on XT in July:

    

    Among them, there are many players whose increase is 5 times after listing, such as LANDLORD and KAMA. CATDOG has been rising steadily since its launch on July 24, with the highest increase reaching 7.75 times. The most eye-catching performance is FIGHT, which has risen nearly 26 times; and FEARNOT, which has risen as much as 14 times. The investment research team discovered and launched tokens such as NEIRO and FWOG at the first time.

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    At the beginning of this month, Sol chain's BONK led to a surge in Dogecoin concept and Meme tokens. The market value of BILLY, a dog-like concept, has reached $100 million. Animal-related Meme is always the winner among the local dogs on the chain, and many old projects have shown signs of recovery. At present, the trading volume of these Meme tokens has fallen back to the level at the end of last year, but the trading volume of DEX remains high, indicating that the main trading opportunities are still in the primary market on the chain.

    Meme-like tokens have an obvious hype problem, that is, there is a time difference between the issuance of the same-name tokens on the Solana chain and the Ethereum chain. The low threshold for issuing coins on the Sol chain gives it a first-mover advantage. Usually, the Meme tokens of the same hot IP will appear on the Sol chain first, and then funds will slowly buy the tokens of the same name on Ethereum. Of course, the situation may be the opposite, such as PEW. In general, for buyers, the earlier they enter the market, the easier it is to make a profit. Compared with the Solana chain, where funds enter and exit quickly, the Meme tokens on Ethereum perform more steadily.

    Practical suggestions, these 7 steps should be able to avoid some sickles:

    • Seize some real-time opportunities, hot news will definitely have the same name golden dog, the time may be very short, but you can make money by seizing the time difference. For example, when Trump wanted to pardon Assange, he came up with many related concepts and memes, such as FREE; the wealth opportunities brought by the prototype of Doge, the meme of the same name as Kabosu, the day Shiba Inu died; and NEIRO at the end of July, which was the cute Shiba Inu newly raised by Kabosu's owner. It caused an explosive trading heat at the end of July, and the total transaction volume on the two chains exceeded 550 million US dollars in 24 hours. We need to observe the leading tokens running on the Sol chain, and then rush in when the market value on the Ethereum chain is very small. Don't forget to do a good job of risk management and carefully identify other risks.

    • Follow the new plates that are about to be filled on pump.fun, and look at his three-piece set (official website/Twitter/social media): if the official website is well-made and attentive, you can pay close attention to it; you can also observe whether Dev has issued other plates, whether he has a history of running away; whether Twitter has opened a blue label/gold label; whether there are famous kols shouting orders, etc.

    • Telegram robots can monitor some information, such as new plate filling reminders, celebrity kols, and chain smart wallet monitoring.

    • On GMGN.AI, see whether Dev has shipped, chip distribution, smart wallets, and information on rat warehouses.

    • Use Rugcheck to check the contract risk and pool lock status. After entering the contract address, check whether the pool is locked or burned, and whether the administrator's rights are abandoned. Security check is always the first priority.

    • Check the hot list on Dexscreener/Dextool/Ave.ai to observe the changes in token market conditions, overall market value, pools, and number of holders.

    • Surf Twitter intensively, pay attention to active Tugou community information, and follow influential KOLs to see what they are shouting. But be aware that when a large area is shouted, it is likely that the dealer is shipping. Listen to all directions, collect comprehensive information, and pay attention to the cold open gold dogs of some powerful projects. Partners interested in Memecoin are also welcome to join our dedicated community for local dogs and be the first to discover the golden dog on the chain: https://t.me/memetothemars

    Future Outlook

    The news that the SEC will no longer pursue the definition of SOL as a security has increased our expectations for the smooth listing of the Solana ETF, and also made us more optimistic about Solana's future long-term growth potential. At present, the market value of SOL is about 85 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.52% of the entire crypto market. Assuming that SOL continues to build and its market value reaches half of Ethereum's current 16.6% market share, the price of SOL can double. Of course, this is a rather outrageous algorithm. Optimistically, assuming that the price of BTC can double to 150,000 US dollars in this bull market, Solana, as the top five public chains in terms of market value, is also very worthy of optimism. We all know that Defi is not the main theme of this bull market, but it is still crucial to the ecological prosperity and infrastructure construction of all public chains. Perhaps in addition to price increases, we can also look forward to new technological breakthroughs in Solana.