Author:SuperEx；Translation: Vernacular Blockchain
Recently, the so-called "Meme engine" Pump.fun on Solana has once again stirred up market waves. Rumors about its upcoming token launch have triggered strong risk aversion in the already fragile on-chain ecosystem. Some call it the new benchmark for the attention economy; others label it the "number one cancer asset" in the Solana ecosystem.
So, is Pump.fun an untamed dark horse, or the last hurrah of crypto FOMO culture?This token launch turmoil may be the ultimate litmus test of its true value.
01 What Happened: Buzz About Pump.fun Token Launch
Here’s what happened: Pump.fun reportedly plans to raise $1 billion through public and private token sales at a valuation of up to $4 billion.The news sent shockwaves through the Solana ecosystem, leading to a surge in risk aversion. Although the official has not yet confirmed the specific release date, hints on its social accounts indicate that there may be action "within two weeks" - which is exactly the same as their last statement.
In fact, this is not the first time Pump.fun has tried to launch a token. Back in February of this year, they considered a Dutch auction, but at that time Trump and his wife launched their own MemeCoin, which attracted all the attention and liquidity, and Pump.fun had to temporarily shelve the plan. Now, although the market has recovered slightly, it has not yet returned to its peak momentum. So, will this token issuance be successful? This is not something we can easily judge - we need to look at it from the perspective of the market.
1-1 Cold data
As of June 4, Pump.fun's cumulative revenue has exceeded US$730 million. Sounds great, right? But wait — since February, its daily revenue has dropped dramatically from nearly $15 million at its peak to just a few million, effectively halving. 1-2 Volumes Pump.fun hit a record high of $3.3 billion in weekly volume in late 2024. Today, even $1 billion in weekly volume is cause for celebration. In short, liquidity and user activity have dried up badly after the initial “boom.”
What is more worrying is that: The number of tokens created daily has dropped from 70,000 at its peak to about 30,000. What does this mean? Users' interest in this "dice rolling" game is waning.
1-3 Who is really making money?
Pump.fun seems to be a fast track to financial freedom, but the reality is far from that optimistic. According to Dune data, there were about 594,000 active wallets in May:
Only 3.6% of users made more than $500 in profit;
Only 0.1% of users made more than $10,000;
Only 27 wallets (about 0.0045%) made a net profit of more than $100,000.
At the same time, 52.5% of users lost money, and some even lost more than $1 million.
The logic is simple: The vast majority of users are "exit liquidity" for a few winners - just like a casino, everyone thinks they will win, but in the end most of them lose everything.
02 Solana faces safe-haven flight
As rumors of Pump.fun’s token intensified, Solana-basedchains recorded losses one after another, with Artemis data showing that Solana is the third-ranked blockchain in terms of net capital outflow among all chains
Essentially, Pump.fun’s token plan is seen as an impending liquidity black hole - and the market is reacting accordingly.
03 The controversy over the $4 billion valuation
What is the most controversial issue? That is the jaw-dropping $4 billion valuation. In comparison, Yuga Labs' valuation at the time of the launch of the APE token was comparable. So, How can Pump.fun justify such a high valuation?
Crypto researcher @Haotian mercilessly pointed out that this valuation is "seriously overestimated." He made four criticisms:
Attention monetization is a short-term play: Built on FOMO and speculation, lacking long-term fundamentals.
No real moat: A new Solana app could easily replace it.
Over-engineering harms the spirit of the Meme:The culture relies on simplicity—too many features can kill its appeal.
Valuation incentives harm innovation:When traffic monetization overrides real technology, cryptocurrency deviates from its original intention.
Another KOL @xingpt pointed out that Pump.fun's 30-day annualized revenue is $77.98 million. At a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5 billion, its FDV/revenue ratio is about 64 - a fairly high number. In contrast, DeFi blue-chip projects like Raydium and PancakeSwap have more stable profits but more conservative valuations, which highlights the high risk of Pump.fun.
04 But not everyone is bearish
There are also supporters who have spoken out. KOL @CryptoV believes that Pump.fun has played a key role in making Solana the main battlefield for on-chain activities. It solves the full stack problem from zero liquidity to centralized exchange (CEX) listing - like an iPhone on the chain. He believes that Pump.fun has captured the two key indicators of the attention economy:liquidity and screen time.
He also pointed out that at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 5, Pump.fun may actually be a value investment. No airdrops, no internal games - just pure product-driven traction. From this perspective, it is more stable than many hype-driven projects.
05 Summary
At first glance, Pump.fun's token plan may be just another market hype event. But beneath the surface, there is a deeper contest of cryptocurrency ideas: value system, valuation model, attention economy and sustainability.
In the short term, the project may still trigger a short-lived craze. But in the long run, whether this FOMO-driven business model can build real defensibility remains to be seen. If it succeeds in creating a completeMeme ecosystem through this token offering, perhaps it will truly deserve the title of "iPhone on chain". But if this is just the last wave of exits, it may leave behind only devastation.
The next few weeks are crucial. This is not just a token offering - it is also a live experiment in the mechanism of the attention economy on chain.
Joy
Hui Xin
Brian