US President Donald Trump has sparked optimism among global investors by hinting at a substantial reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, raising hopes for a thaw in the protracted US-China trade war.

But at this point, the U.S has already lost all of its leverage on China and President Trump's peace declaration seems to be just empty words. China knows that the ball is currently in their court, and they will be the one who would be calling the shot from here on.

Beijing pushes Trump to remove all the tariffs before it negotiates talks

On Tuesday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the current 145% tariffs on Chinese goods would “come down substantially.”

He emphasized a softer approach to negotiations, promising to be “very nice” and cordial to China. When asked if he was going to play hardball with China or Xi in order to make a deal, Trump said "No!"

However, in his statement, Trump mentioned that while the tariff will go down but it won't be zero. Despite Trump’s conciliatory tone, Beijing remains unmoved, demanding the removal of all tariffs before any real dialogue can begin.

He Yadong, spokesperson for China's Commerce Ministry said

“The unilateral tariff hikes were initiated by the US. If the US truly wants to resolve the issue, it should heed the rational voices of the international community and its own domestic stakeholders, fully remove all unilateral tariff measures against China, and find a way to resolve differences through equal dialogue.”

Chinese officials also denied that any substantive trade talks are underway, contradicting Trump’s claim that US and Chinese officials are in daily contact. Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said

“These are all fake news. To my knowledge, China and the United States have not engaged in any consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue, let alone reached any agreement.”

China ready to play the waiting game

Chinese government advisors see Trump’s apparent climbdown as a response to mounting domestic pressure and an attempt to pacify volatile markets.

Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University, explained that Chinese officials remain skeptical of Trump’s intentions after weeks of mixed signals.

“The pressure at home is mounting, and much of his current messaging is aimed at appeasing domestic concerns. But China doesn’t buy into his talk about lowering tariffs. He says one thing today and another tomorrow, maybe increasing them again the next day. He’s not trustworthy.”

Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, echoed this sentiment, saying China is “in no rush” to negotiate and is prepared to withstand economic pressure.

“Instead of accepting offers to talk too soon, it might be more beneficial to endure a bit of conflict first — doing so could make negotiations smoother and lead to more favorable outcomes for China."

For months, Beijing has projected strength, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping touring Southeast Asia to reinforce China’s image as a stable partner.

Still, experts acknowledge that China’s economy is facing headwinds and may eventually need to negotiate. Trump’s shift in tone followed a private meeting with CEOs from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s, who voiced concerns about the economic fallout from tariffs and market uncertainty.

Major investment banks have warned that the ongoing tariffs, alongside China’s 125% retaliatory duties, could push both economies—and the world—toward recession.

While Trump hasn’t specified the scale of the planned tariff cuts, a senior White House official told the Wall Street Journal that rates could fall to “between roughly 50% and 65%.”

However, Wang from Renmin University, currently in Washington, said even a cut to that level wouldn’t be enough to bring China to the table.

“If you really want to negotiate seriously with China, then you should cancel all those baseless tariffs first, and then come back to the table.”

Wang posits that Trump's posits that the sudden change in sentiments could be a trap by Trump to trick China into negotiation. But China is confident that the ball is not in their court, and they will be the one who will be the one who will be setting the rules of the negotiation moving forward.

On Chinese social media, Trump’s apparent retreat was mocked, with the hashtag “Trump chickened out” trending on Weibo and garnering over 150 million views. Comments reflected national pride and skepticism, with one user writing, “If the so-called reciprocal tariffs aren’t even canceled—don’t bother negotiating with them!”

Experts: China might not have the liberty to play a long waiting game

Despite Beijing’s public hardline, some Chinese experts privately question the wisdom of a prolonged standoff. One foreign policy expert, speaking anonymously, warned that the 145% tariffs could devastate China’s trade and jobs, risking social unrest and government legitimacy.

Earlier this month, a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences criticized China’s countermeasures as self-destructive.

While Beijing has set an ambitious 5% growth target for the year, economists doubt this can be achieved amid ongoing tariff pressures. Goldman Sachs recently warned that US tariffs will “significantly weigh” on China’s economy.

The anonymous expert believes China will eventually negotiate, but only when it can frame any compromise as a Chinese victory.

“We must quickly reverse the trade war with the United States, but it’s all about saving face—pretending to be strong while waiting for the US to blink first.”