Pantera Capital Partner: 12 Predictions for Cryptocurrency in 2026

Author: Jay Yu, Partner at Pantera Capital; Translated by: Shaw Jinse Finance

Happy holidays and Merry Christmas! It's prediction season again. Here are my 12 predictions for cryptocurrency in 2026.

1. Capital-Efficient Consumer Credit

Capital-efficient consumer credit is the next frontier in cryptocurrency lending. It combines sophisticated on-chain and off-chain credit models, modular design and collateral management, and AI learning of user behavior, all integrated into an easy-to-use application.

2. Prediction Market Divergence

Prediction markets will evolve in two distinct directions—a "financial" direction and a "cultural" direction.

Prediction markets will diverge in two very different directions—a "financial" direction and a "cultural" direction.

In the financial sector, prediction markets will be more compatible with decentralized finance (DeFi), making it easier to access leverage, achieve liquidity staking, and create a tool similar to sophisticated "options." The cultural market, on the other hand, tends to appeal to the public imagination, exhibits greater regional diversity, and has a larger base of long-term enthusiasts. 3. Proxy Commerce Booms with the x402 Protocol Proxy commerce using endpoints like the x402 protocol will expand into more service areas. While micropayments remain a core attraction for proxy commerce, x402 will increasingly be used as a framework for regular payments—its mechanism is almost identical to Apple Pay. On some websites, over 50% of transaction volume and revenue may come from x402 payments. Solana's x402 transaction volume (in cents) has surpassed Base's. 4. Artificial Intelligence as the Interface Layer for Cryptocurrency Technology Artificial intelligence (AI)-driven trading processes are gradually becoming mainstream. While fully autonomous AI trading based on Large Language Models (LLMs) is still in the experimental stage, AI-assisted functions (such as cryptocurrency trend analysis, specific project analysis, and wallet tracking) will gradually permeate the user processes of most consumer-facing cryptocurrency applications. 5. The Rise of Tokenized Gold Tokenized gold trading volume will grow and become a major asset for the promotion of RWA (Real-World Assets). Tokenized gold can circumvent restrictions on physical gold trading in different jurisdictions and, given the structural problems facing the US dollar (geopolitics, inflation, debt), is becoming an increasingly attractive store of value. 6. The Quantum Panic Facing Bitcoin A potential quantum panic (perhaps stemming from some technological breakthrough) will prompt institutions holding large amounts of Bitcoin to discuss quantum contingency plans. The resilience of Bitcoin and Satoshi-era cryptocurrencies will become a focus of attention. Fortunately, this technology currently does not threaten Bitcoin's value. 7. A Unified Privacy Development Experience With the continued development of frameworks like Ethereum and Kohaku, privacy protection will gain a unified and user-friendly developer interface. Their development path is similar to the Wallet-as-a-Service platforms of the previous cycle—providing an application-level product that abstracts various technical interfaces. We may see some companies offering Privacy-as-a-Service packages (potentially including wallets) for enterprise workflows. 8. Consolidation of DATs The number of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) may eventually shrink to only two or three per major category. This could be achieved through uncollateralization/liquidity, conversion into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or mergers and acquisitions among DATs. 9. The Boundaries Between Tokens and Equity are Breaking Down This is an existential crisis for “governance-based” crypto tokens that lack legal control over their parent companies. We will see more high-quality companies choosing to remain “private” for longer periods. Perhaps we will see tokens with redeemable equity, and the regulatory framework surrounding the legal ownership of tokens will be improved. 10. Hyperliquid Maintains Dominance in Perp DEXs With the consolidation of perpetual contract decentralized exchanges (Perp DEXs), Hyperliquid continues to maintain its market dominance. The HIP3 market has become the primary driver of trading volume, while yield-generating stablecoins have gained priority on HYPE (e.g., through HyENA). USDC's dominance on HYPE has been superseded by USDe and USDH. 11. Prop AMMs Achieve Multi-Chain Functionality Proprietary Automated Market Makers (Prop AMMs) enable cross-chain operation, accounting for over half of the trading volume on Solana. They are also used to price more assets, such as RWA. 12. Stablecoins as International Payment Gateways An increasing number of traditional fintech companies (such as Stripe, Ramp, Brex, and Klarna) are using stablecoins in their international payment processes. Stablecoin chains like Tempo are becoming important gateways for fiat currency into cryptocurrencies; they accept fiat payments and then convert them into stablecoins for settlement.