Opinion: Cryptocurrency is dead, cryptocurrency is immortal.

Author: Dougie, Crypto KOL; Translated by: Jinse Finance

Cryptocurrency is dead.

I'm not referring to prices going to zero, nor am I saying the blockchain has stopped producing blocks or stablecoins have quietly disappeared. What I'm saying is that for someone like me who has spent most of the past decade deeply involved in this industry, there's something that's incredibly unsettling.

My career, network, and even a large part of my personal identity have been built around "cryptocurrency." I've experienced the ICO boom, the DeFi summer, the NFT craze, the Metaverse, the Memecoin wave… I've witnessed almost it all. In Telegram groups, cryptocurrency social platforms, industry conferences, and countless founder meetings, the consensus has always been the same: cryptocurrency is the center of the universe, and our mission is to keep this universe expanding.

But now my thinking is almost the exact opposite.

That self-contained world of "cryptocurrency" is dying.

This technology is about to permeate everything, and those who mistook the bubble of the past for the ultimate form will eventually be abandoned by the times. So why am I still bullish? Because this "demise" is the necessary path to a future far grander than the industry we've been defending. The Bubble We Created In the modern history of cryptocurrency, the noisiest areas have always been created by "crypto natives" for "crypto natives." Not for all traders, nor for those who crave better, more diverse financial services, but for a much narrower group: those whose financial lives are already on-chain. We've optimized everything around this type of user: - The interface design assumes you can easily transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars in assets using browser plugins. - The so-called "education" is essentially just "browsing more discussion threads." - The functionality is entirely centered around "liquidity mining," "points rewards," "token issuance," and "meta-games"—only those within the industry understand the intricacies. Most importantly, we've built a marketing strategy that works almost exclusively within the industry: 1. Issue tokens with a points mechanism. 2. Launch liquidity mining. 3. Introduce an invitation code system. 4. Build a Discord community, hire an intern to manage the accounts, and call it a "community." This is the meta-logic of "encryption for encryption's sake": the closed-loop incentive mechanism always targets the same set of addresses that are already well-versed in mining, rotation, and selling. When founders say "user acquisition," what they really mean is often "competing for the same wallet addresses that other projects are also vying for." This hides an implicit assumption that has underpinned countless careers: given time, the whole world will become like us. But this has never come true. User numbers may have grown, but crypto culture remains niche and self-referential. Most activities still revolve around the same behaviors: trading on-chain assets, leveraging, chasing short-term incentives, etc. What we call the "crypto industry" is less a general technology ecosystem and more like a highly liquid massively multiplayer online game (MMO). This world is interesting, frankly, even exciting. But its growth potential is fundamentally limited. The Real Meaning of "Crypto is Dead" So when I say "crypto is dead," I don't mean the blockchain is shutting down, everyone is leaving, or that tokens have disappeared or the technology has failed. What I really want to say is: - Cryptocurrency as an independent industry is crumbling. The clear lines between "cryptocurrency" and "fintech," "AI infrastructure," "payments," "trading markets," and "gambling" are becoming increasingly blurred. "Crypto startups" are no longer a distinct category, but simply startups that happen to use blockchain technology. - Most applications that only serve crypto natives either die out or remain forever in a niche market. If your target market is just "those who spend all their time on the blockchain," you're essentially starting a business in a dead end. This niche market may exist forever, and some people may profit from it, but the potential for this technology to change the world is far from there. - The label "cryptocurrency" has become a burden. Calling something "cryptocurrency" or a "Web3 product" no longer helps attract users, gain regulatory approval, or raise funds. Ordinary entrepreneurs will directly adopt the underlying technology but are unwilling to be associated with its specific identity. The victory of cryptocurrency lies not in turning the whole world into crypto natives, but in enabling even those who are not crypto natives to enjoy its convenience. The "demise" I'm referring to is the end of that self-absorbed, aloof crypto world—the world that expects everyone to actively enter it, learn its language, and follow its rules. From "Crypto Native" to "Real-World Native" The process of technology adoption is usually uneventful. Early on, only the "weirdos" and true believers embrace it. If the technology truly has value, it will eventually permeate everything. People will no longer talk about "the technology itself," but rather "what can be done with the technology." This is the future we are heading towards: the key to success lies not in "more crypto natives," but in "more ordinary people." We've already seen some initial signs: - Users checking election odds on Polymarket are completely unaware they're using the blockchain; - Merchants in Lagos or Buenos Aires use USDT to settle invoices simply because it arrives in seconds; - Depositors in high-inflation countries hold USDC not because they're "bullish on cryptocurrencies," but because their national currencies have collapsed. These users don't need to understand what "rollup" (Layer 2 scaling solutions) is to integrate crypto technology into their lives. This technology makes their lives cheaper, more efficient, and better. Of course, this isn't simply a conflict between "insiders" and the "general public." There's also a huge, almost overlooked middle group: they understand technology, value privacy and control, or enjoy direct market participation, but have no interest in "yield mining" or "points arbitrage." They want self-custody features but are unwilling to embrace the native crypto culture. What they need is better underlying technology, not a completely new "persona." To be fair, we are now closer than ever to serving this community. The user onboarding process and experience have been greatly improved, with features such as mobile-first design, social media login, Apple Pay integration, and abstract wallets. Today, you don't need a "cryptocurrency master's degree" to use on-chain services. This is precisely why the current bottleneck is no longer user experience (UX), but "intent." Now that we can make these tools easily accessible to anyone, what do we choose to build? Who do we choose to serve? Unfortunately, the answer is often still: "We are solving native crypto problems for crypto natives." "We are making it easier for those already on the blockchain to get on board." "We are building a better 'casino' for a group of users who spend all their time at the 'gambling table'." And this part will eventually be eliminated by the times. We should expect cryptocurrencies to follow the development path of other underlying technologies. Nobody says, "I'm an internet user," and nobody boasts, "I'm using cloud computing." You simply use the product to get things done. In the future, the term "crypto user" will become just as strange. What will survive? This doesn't mean completely abandoning crypto culture. Some of these aspects deserve to exist and be promoted: - Permissionless access: Anyone can access and develop. - Global liquidity and 24/7 market: A trading ecosystem that never closes. - Composability: An open state and open application programming interfaces (APIs). - User ownership (optional): In scenarios that truly enhance product value. Furthermore, a kind of "benign quirk" deserves to be preserved: - A transparent product development process. - The instinct of open source. - A willingness to try financial experiments that a typical board of directors would never approve. At the same time, we should also be frank: "casinos" provide a lot of funding for industry development. Those speculative capital flows and transaction fee peaks that are ridiculed by many actually provide financial support for "ordinary" infrastructure such as payments. Our goal is not to eliminate "casinos," but to stop mistaking "casinos" for the entire "city." Crypto culture has endowed us with truly valuable assets. Our mission is not to bury these assets, but to integrate them into everything. Why the Old Ways Don't Work If you agree with the above viewpoint, you must look at the current industry practices from a completely new perspective. Liquidity mining, points rewards, and airdrops mostly just allow the same funds to circulate between slightly different user interfaces. The whole cycle is: project launch → mining → increased mining intensity → exit → complaining about "profit-seeking users." The first-day data may seem impressive, but the retention rate after three months is often abysmal. From an investor's perspective, you will gradually see the true nature of this hype: some teams are good at creating hype and designing incentive mechanisms, but when you ask them these questions, they are almost speechless: - Besides crypto social platform users, who is this product designed for? - Why will users continue to use it after the rewards stop? - What is the point of this product for those who don't understand basis points and token symbols? The problem isn't that we can't reach ordinary people—the tools are mature enough. The real problem is that we've almost never bothered to build anything meaningful for ordinary people. This mindset has also hit a bottleneck in growth. Once trying to emerge from the bubble, it often hits a compliance "wall." Know Your Customer (KYC) and regulatory requirements aren't top-down mandates, but rather gradually introduced from the industry periphery after founders realized "growth is impossible without them." - KYC is inevitably involved whenever you connect to a real payment network; - A regulatory framework must be established to work with institutional counterparties; - The "complete anonymity" model quickly becomes ineffective once credit, identity verification, or real-world assets are involved. Some parts of the on-chain economy will remain completely anonymous and unregulated—that's its characteristic. But it would be naive to think that most economic activity will remain at this level. That "you'll all end up like us" mentality has made us shirk the hard work of problem-solving, channel expansion, and business models. Now, this fatigue is evident when hype fails to translate into lasting user retention or returns. This isn't just a macroeconomic issue; it's a growth ceiling for "building products only for our own people." Crypto Becomes the Underlying Architecture of the World If the old ways of doing things gradually become ineffective, what will the future look like? I divide it into three layers: 1. Infrastructure Layer: Low-key, Plain, and Massive Blockchain will become the default underlying architecture for specific sectors: settlement systems for specific types of payments and markets, stablecoins' advantages in cross-border capital flows, shared state systems in areas such as identity authentication, collateral, and ownership records. Most users will never know or care that this is "on-chain" technology. They will only experience faster settlement speeds, more reliable access, default global coverage, and programmable money services that banks have never offered. 2. Product Layer: Not “Crypto Products,” Just “Products” Applications in fintech, e-commerce, and other fields will utilize on-chain technology when truly needed, while striving to hide complexity and competing on the same dimensions as all other products: price, speed, user experience, and trust. They won't market themselves as “on-chain products,” but rather emphasize being cheaper, faster, more global, more composable, and sometimes even fairer. 3. Speculative Layer: Persistent, But Back to Its Place The “casino” won't disappear, it just won't be the whole story. Memecoins, exotic derivatives, and pure speculative platforms will still exist; some will remain niche, while others will integrate into mainstream trading and entertainment. These don't need to die out. The key change is that speculation will become a vertical sector within a larger ecosystem, rather than the cornerstone of the entire “industry.” The ultimate outcome is that cryptocurrencies will be integrated into the technology stack, rather than existing independently. Who are the winners and losers? If cryptocurrency becomes a fundamental layer of everything, the incentive mechanism will change accordingly. For entrepreneurs: - Losers: Teams that only serve users of crypto social platforms and a small number of on-chain addresses; founders skilled in designing liquidity mining, points programs, and token issuance mechanisms. - Winners: Teams that start from real user needs and use crypto technology as a detail in implementation; founders willing to remain "plain" in key areas (trust, compliance, channels). For investors: - Losers: Funds that adhere to the philosophy of "serving crypto people" and view "reflexivity" (price increases driven by speculation) as a business model. - Winners: Investors who are optimistic about real demand, user retention, and sustainable channels in a broad market (payments, credit, identity verification, trading markets, data). For existing industry players: - Losers: Those who identify as "early adopters, the world must adapt to me"; ecosystems that refuse integration and insist that "pure encryption" is the only correct path. - Winners: Teams that create underlying technologies and products that real users love and rely on, integrate with existing financial and consumption processes, and bring new on-chain demand through cooperation. Integrating into the real economy is the key to achieving lasting and huge success. The Pain of Letting Go If you have been deeply involved in this industry for a long time, the above views may be hard to accept. When you have held on in the "fortress" for many years, but hear "the fortress is about to close, the battlefield has shifted," it is inevitable to feel pain. It feels like a betrayal of the time, energy, and beliefs you invested when the industry was not widely recognized. Many people's identities are built on "early adopters," "different from the crowd," and "playing games that the world doesn't understand." When they realize that the world may adopt these tools but is unwilling to accept their identity attributes, it feels like losing something. But this is precisely the normal trajectory of successful technologies. When the internet became commonplace and ubiquitous, the internet as a subculture "died"; when every legitimate company quietly adopted cloud computing, the "cloud" was no longer an exciting cutting-edge field. No one mourns these "demises" now, because they are the price of victory. The maturation of cryptocurrency means that the cryptocurrency we know must die. This is not a failure, but the inevitable price we pay for our past pursuits. Cryptocurrency is dead, cryptocurrency is immortal. If we can navigate this transformation well, we will no longer see "cryptocurrency adoption" as a separate goal. Instead, we will talk about: - Products and businesses that rely on these underlying technologies - New markets that are more global, open, and programmable than existing markets - People whose lives have been transformed by access to tools that local banking systems will never provide. You can cling to the closed, self-referential industry we've built, hoping the world will eventually come to you. Or you can accept that era is coming to an end and start building products and investing in others. Our mission has never been to make everyone a crypto native, but to make the world a better place with the tools we create—even if the world eventually forgets the names of those tools. If you are an entrepreneur or investor, ask yourself honestly: Am I solving problems for crypto natives, or for the whole world? Your answer will determine which side you ultimately stand on in this "obituary."