New capital enters the market. Is BTC's next stop $100,000?

Author: Biraajmaan Tamuly, CoinTelegraph; Compiler: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Summary:

• Bitcoin short-term holders are back in profit, increasing the chances of a rally to $100,000.

• Long-term holders have added 363,000 BTC since February, with new buyers injecting funds in April.

• Bitcoin selling pressure risk exists at $97,000, when 392,000 BTC can be sold.

On April 22, BTC surged above $91,700, making it worth more than the short-term realized price or cost basis. This means that most short-term holders (STH) are now back in profit.

STH’s return to profitability after unrealized losses signals a bullish outlook, paving the way for a potential $100,000 retest.

Bitcoin short-term on-chain cost basis band. Source: Glassnode

Historically, in the early stages of a stock market rally, profitable STH provides upward momentum by holding firm and attracting new investors. Bitcoin’s supply chart shows “strong activity” from first-time buyers in April, indicating new capital is being injected into the market at higher prices.

Long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) have added 363,000 BTC since February, while Bitcoin whales have absorbed 300% of annual issuance.

Despite this week’s price breakout, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the last strong resistance level remains at $96,100. In an X post, the analyst said,

“At the $96,000 level, the group that holds the token for 3-6 months will face the last resistance, after which the next target is $100,000.”

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: X.com

Bitcoin price reaches $97,000, could trigger sell-off

According to Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold about 392,000 BTC with an average cost basis of $97,000, forming a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests that many investors may sell at breakeven prices, which could hinder Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Bitcoin cost basis distribution chart. Source: X.com

However, anonymous trader Ezy Bitcoin highlighted that Bitcoin’s price action during the Wyckoff re-accumulation phase is “excellent.” The chart shows continued strength with three price targets: $131,500 (target 1), $144,900 (target 2), and $166,700 (target 3).

This Wyckoff pattern indicates potential accumulation by large players, portending an uptrend for Bitcoin as the market absorbs supply and prepares for an uptrend.

Bitcoin Wyckoff pattern analysis by Ezy Bitcoin. Source: X.com