My opinion on Ethereum's performance in the second half of the year

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

In the comments at the end of Thursday's article, a reader mentioned: The last round of market was a double top.

The last round of market did have two tops.

But there is one factor that cannot be ignored for its ability to get out of such a market: that is, after the first top, Ethereum saw a new round of innovation led by NFT.

And the innovation of NFT is more unique than DeFi------it has gone out of the circle. It has affected celebrities from all walks of life in the traditional ecology: including sports stars, talk show stars, entertainment stars, etc., and has also affected traditional art institutions-------Some contemporary art museums in countries including the United States and Germany have included some classic NFTs in Ethereum (such as crypto punk) as artworks in their contemporary art collections; Christie's and Sotheby's have auctioned several batches of top NFTs in the Ethereum ecosystem.

This influence is very rare among all the innovations in the crypto ecosystem.

It is under the leadership of this innovation that the entire crypto market can go out of the second peak, and the second peak has exceeded the first peak.

This is the importance of innovation, and it is also the reason why I have always emphasized that the internal factors of the crypto ecosystem are far more important than the external factors.

That is why I wrote in the last article:

"If the crypto ecosystem itself does not have disruptive and sustainable innovative applications and business models in the second half of the year, it is very likely that the trend of Bitcoin in the second half of the year will still be strongly affected by the US stock market."

"If the crypto ecosystem itself can produce miracles in the second half of the year and produce disruptive innovations and applications, then the rise of Bitcoin will be another logic."

This is true for Bitcoin, and even more so for Ethereum.

This round of Ethereum fell from nearly $4,000 to as low as $1,500, and then rebounded to the current $2,500. It seems to have heated up the market again, but this heat seems to me to be of limited significance. On the one hand, this increase is largely driven by Bitcoin, and on the other hand, it has a bit of the meaning of oversold catch-up.

If Ethereum wants to have a stable and solid market in the second half of the year, it also needs strong innovation.

Although the AI ​​+ Crypto sub-ecosystem has begun to recover a certain amount of vitality, its influence has not yet been enough to spread to the entire crypto ecosystem, and it is not enough to become the main driving force for the rise of Ethereum.

Therefore, if the crypto ecosystem still has no strong innovation in the second half of the year, and it is still like now, it may be difficult to break through the new high of the previous round. Even if it can break through the new high of the previous round, that price is not solid and may collapse at any time.

A reader asked in an online exchange on Saturday: If Ethereum rises to $10,000 per coin in the second half of the year, will I sell it?

First of all, I think if the development of the entire crypto ecosystem in the second half of the year is still as tepid as it is now, the possibility of Ethereum rising to $10,000 is very small; but if it really rises to $10,000 unexpectedly, then I will probably sell a considerable part of it, because that price is obviously overestimated.

Unless there is an innovative miracle in the ecosystem, that $10,000 may not be high and is worth keeping.

So whether to sell or not depends on the development of the ecosystem at that time, rather than simply the absolute price.

Regarding the possibility of the development of the Ethereum ecosystem, it seems that more and more traditional institutions have begun to build their own infrastructure around Ethereum recently, especially the layout of domestic Internet giants in this regard is worth noting.

For example, Ant Group recently announced that it will build a second-layer extension based on Ethereum.

Relevant senior executives talked about the details of this layout in an interview, to the effect that:

Ant builds a consortium chain in China and handles domestic business in full accordance with domestic laws.

Overseas (Hong Kong), a permissionless Ethereum second-layer extension is built as a "public chain". This second-layer extension will not issue coins. But because it is permissionless, anyone can deploy applications on it. However, the projects issued by Ant on it will still operate in a licensed manner.

In addition, Ant will use a cross-chain bridge to communicate between the domestic consortium chain and the overseas second-layer extension.

I guess this will probably be a typical way for many traditional financial institutions or companies to enter the crypto ecosystem in the future.

The entry of these institutions into the Ethereum ecosystem will be good for Ethereum, but most of the projects they launch have nothing to do with us retail investors. So far, the second-layer extensions built by pure encryption ecosystem teams are still the paradise for retail investors.