Will Elon Musk form a new political party, the American Party, in 2025? This bold idea has sparked heated discussions on the cryptocurrency betting market Polymarket, with the odds of winning soaring to 17%! At the same time, Musk and Trump's public "fighting" continues to escalate, and Tesla's stock price has fluctuated violently. What kind of story is hidden behind it? Let's find out!
According to the latest data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, as of now, the probability of Musk founding a new political party in 2025 has surged from 7% in June to 17%, and has risen another 2% in the past 24 hours. Behind this market enthusiasm, the amount of bets has exceeded 416 million US dollars! Polymarket clearly stated that if Musk issued a "clear" official statement, the market would judge it as "yes".
More strikingly, Musk's X platform recently announced a formal cooperation with Polymarket, and Polymarket became X's official prediction market partner. The powerful combination of the two parties combines Polymarket's prediction data with X's real-time dynamics to provide users with more accurate trend insights. This also further aroused heated discussions on the possibility of Musk establishing a party.
Little Knowledge：
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can bet on future events using cryptocurrency. However, due to regulatory restrictions, US residents are currently unable to participate.
The fuse of this heated discussion stems from the increasingly fierce public dispute between Musk and former US President Trump.
Cause of the incident: Musk accused the Trump administration of withholding documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, causing an uproar.
Trump strikes back: Trump publicly expressed his "disappointment" with Musk, calling him "crazy," and threatened to cancel federal contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies.
Musk strikes back: Musk not only criticized Trump's tariff policy for "triggering a U.S. economic recession," but also forwarded a post that "Trump should be impeached," which was full of gunpowder.
Just as the “mutual tearing” between the two sides escalated, Musk launched a striking vote on the X platform: “Is it time to establish a new political party in the United States that represents 80% of centrists?”
The voting results showed that more than 5.63 million users participated, of which 80.4% supported the establishment of a new party and only 19.6% opposed. Musk immediately forwarded the result, announcing that the new party would be named “The America Party” and said: “The people have spoken, and this is destiny!”
The dispute between Musk and Trump not only ignited public opinion, but also directly impacted the capital market.
June 5: Tesla's stock price plummeted 18% due to the verbal battle between the two sides, and the closing decline narrowed to 14%, but its market value still evaporated by about US$153 billion, setting the largest single-day decline in nearly three months.
June 6: Tesla's stock price rebounded 4.3% in early trading in the U.S. stock market, but still failed to fully make up for the losses of the previous day.
This turmoil has made investors uncertain about Musk's business empire and political trends, and has also added more drama to the potential establishment of the "American Party"
Musk proposed that the core concept of the "American Party" is to represent the "middle 80%" group, trying to break the traditional pattern of the two-party system in the United States. This idea has sparked widespread discussion: Supporters believe that Musk's influence and resources may promote a new political party centered on rationality, science and innovation, and attract centrist voters who are tired of traditional politics. Opponents question that the establishment of a party requires a large organization and financial support, and Musk's controversial remarks and conflicts with Trump may weaken its political appeal. In any case, Musk's idea of the "American Party" has undoubtedly dropped a bombshell on American politics.
Although the dispute between Musk and Trump showed a brief "reconciliation" signal on the evening of the 5th, Trump again called Musk "crazy" the next day, and the relationship between the two sides remained tense. Will Musk's plan to build a party turn from the voting fantasy of the X platform into reality? Polymarket's 17% probability may be just the beginning.
At the same time, the cooperation between X and Polymarket will provide us with more real-time data and insights into the direction of this event. Musk's next move, whether it is to continue to "fight" Trump or to formally prepare for the "American Party", will become the global focus in 2025.
From a technology giant to a political star, Musk's every step has attracted global attention. Is his idea of the "American Party" a sudden whim or a well-thought-out strategy? Let us wait and see!
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