Written by Matti, Zee Prime Capital Translated by Yangz, Techub News
I am back with another thought-provoking potpourri inspired by Peter Thiel. As a self-proclaimed "Thir School" follower, I often look at the future through his "bible" (From 0 to 1: Unlocking the Secret of Business and the Future). Thiel's framework is very extensible and can accurately dissect ideas, trends and movements. But sometimes it is more like Wittgenstein's ruler - its reliability is highly dependent on the observation perspective - rather than a lens that is always clear. (Note: "Wittgenstein's ruler" theory holds that unless you are confident in the reliability of the ruler, if you use a ruler to measure a table, you may also use the table to measure the ruler.)
As a cryptocurrency investor, I often capture opportunities through narrative analysis. Now that the industry is at a turning point, the arbitrage space in the emerging technology market is about to close, and I can't help but think: How to discover and inspire more outstanding ideas and products?
Through Thiel's prism, the timeline of the cryptocurrency industry presents such an arc: from the "clear optimism" in the early days of Bitcoin, to the "fuzzy optimism" in the grand vision of Web3 (finance eventually became a killer application), to the "fuzzy pessimism" in the Memecoin casino era, and now to the "clear pessimism" of regulatory compromise. This arc starts from the ideals of cypherpunks, passes through entrepreneurial enthusiasm, falls into degen culture, and finally moves towards standardization.
However, is this arc universal to all trends? A revolutionary idea becomes a hyped panacea when it is partially proven, and when it fails to deliver on high expectations, it is despised and eventually becomes normal. For now, the revolution has not been fully realized, but we have still (for some people) completed a satisfying cycle along the Gartner technology hype cycle.
In the field of cryptocurrency, the grand technology hype cycle is obscured by price fluctuations. Each cycle - Bitcoin, ICOs that promised "world computers", DeFi, Memecoin, and now regulatory and traditional finance (TradFi) integration - is like a fractal of a larger pattern. Right now, we are in the Trough of Disillusionment. And according to Carlotta Perez's theory of technological revolution waves, we are at a turning point.
Web3 once promised to achieve the profitable explosion of Web2 by on-chain, decentralized and tokenized. However, Web2 or Web3 are not specific “places” — they are not separate “things.” As I said two years ago, they are more like “user preferences,” which are still a minority today. If you always need to explain the new by referring to the old, you are not building something truly new.
The cryptocurrency industry is no longer a frontier market, but opportunities still exist at the forefront of this increasingly mature space. Where are the biggest opportunities at this stage? Intuitively, they will come from growth dividends or latecomer advantages.
It is worth noting that centralized exchanges (CEXs), which were once the “vanguard” of cryptocurrency popularization, have now become “conservatives” who only care about defending market share rather than promoting on-chain adoption. Ironically, it is these exchanges and L1 public chains that have created the most impressive returns for investors. In these tracks where competition is fierce and idealism gives way to pragmatism, the biggest winners are born.
So, does this mean that there are no more "secrets" in the industry? I firmly believe that "secrets" still exist, and today's "secrets" are the revelations of the past: how many truly innovative companies and networks have we built?
The low-hanging fruit has long been picked. Most projects either clumsily imitate the routines of their predecessors or repackage old elements as so-called innovations. Too many solutions are solving needs that do not exist at all, while others simply copy traditional financial models on the chain.
Crypto is essentially an unfinished revolution that ultimately became a revisionist force. Today, it is caught in a core (perhaps false) dilemma: "Is it the right path to stick to idealism, or succumb to the reality of "making money"? "In other words, are you willing to sell your ideals at the price offered by the old system? After crying dry in the Memecoin casino, more and more revolutionaries are accepting this deal.
Those vague ideas based on the builders' wishful thinking (no, users don't care about data sovereignty at all), coupled with the real commercial success of centralized service providers, have jointly created the current dilemma. Today, it is almost difficult to find "clear optimists" in the field of cryptocurrency, but the word "almost" leaves investment opportunities for those who are willing to stick to the forefront.
Anais
