After Musk and Trump fell out, he even directly expressed his idea of forming a new party.
So, does Musk have a chance?
Of course there is, and now the United States is in a period of rapid political change. In terms of political opportunities alone, there is huge room.
Where does my judgment come from? It comes from my judgment on the nature of politics.
I believe that the essence of politics is public opinion.
When there is a huge change in the form of public opinion in a place, there will also be huge changes in politics.
Let's not talk about the United States first. Today I can even give Musk an accurate political roadmap, but before writing a political roadmap, let me talk about the politics of several other places.
First, let's talk about the politics of Taiwan, China.
Taiwan's Ke Wenzhe is the so-called "white power" that rose in the era of drastic changes in public opinion. He is a doctor at National Taiwan University. Because of his speeches in the field of health, he became an Internet celebrity and then entered the political field.
As soon as he made a move, he won the mayor of Taipei City and defeated Lian Shengwen of the Kuomintang, which represented a traditional political family.
After his re-election, he began to make a bigger political plan and established the People's Party. In the last general election, he formed a three-way confrontation. Although he did not succeed in reaching the top, there is no doubt that the white power represented by Ko Wen-je has become a key force influencing Taiwan's politics.
In other words, in just a decade, the traditional two-party politics has been overturned and new political forces have risen.
And in Argentina, there was Mile.
Ten years ago, Mille was just an economic consultant for a business company and an economics teacher at a university. He became a guest on various talk shows because he successfully predicted Argentina's inflation.
Before Mille was elected president of Argentina, he had only been in the party for five years. Mille has only been elected to public office (elected as a member of parliament five years ago) for five years.
The two traditional Argentine parties, Peronism and the center-right party, have a history of nearly a hundred years, but they have all been surpassed by Mille.
In the recent parliamentary elections held in the Argentine capital, Mille's new party successfully surpassed the power of the two traditional parties and won.
This scene also appeared in Ukrainian politics.
Zelensky is a political novice. As we all know, he became famous for starring in a political comedy, but he immediately entered politics, formed a party, and won the election.
Trump is also an atypical politician and a political novice.
Although he represented the Republican Party in the election, in fact, the current Republican Party has been reorganized into the Trump Party through two elections. The traditional Republican establishment has either succumbed or been marginalized.
So, what are the reasons for the above political changes?
It lies in the changes in public opinion. After the advent of the Internet era, the traditional elite public opinion has disintegrated. The era has come when everyone has a mobile phone and can freely create. Public opinion has begun to sink all over the world. That is, it is no longer just a stage for traditional political elites, experts, and scholars to perform. Public opinion has become a happy place where everyone can participate.
The above-mentioned people, regardless of their age, are political amateurs who are extremely familiar with the Internet and social media. They skipped the control of traditional elite media and directly established a strong reputation through social media networks, breaking the traditional political structure in one fell swoop.
So Trump said that traditional media are all FAKE NEWS.
Even these people use Twitter or Facebook as their most core political propaganda platform, instead of relying on various mainstream media propaganda like traditional politicians.
This is the most important feature of this era. The global media has ended the era of elite media and entered an era of mass media with an unknown future. As a result, politics will also undergo major changes.
Musk himself owns the Twitter platform and has a strong influence in the United States. Although he has a mixed reputation, and even at present, the negative reviews are higher than the positive reviews, Musk already has all the foundations to become the next Trump-like figure.
Not only that, according to the American political system, Musk has considerable potential to change American politics immediately.
This is going back to the major bug in the American political system.
There is an obvious bug in the US electoral system, that is, the Electoral College system, under which swing states appear, and the voters in swing states decide the final political choice.
In swing states, the difference in votes between the two parties can even be as small as about 1%.
In the 2020 US election, Trump only lagged behind Biden by about 1% in the number of votes in several swing states, but he lost the election. The populations of several famous swing states are as follows: Pennsylvania: population of about 13 million, Wisconsin: population of about 5.9 million, Michigan: population of about 10 million, North Carolina: population of about 10.8 million, Georgia: population of about 11 million, Arizona: population of about 7.4 million; Nevada (population of about 3.2 million. The combined population of these states is more than 50 million, but the voter turnout is only about 60%. Only about 20 million voters actually voted. In the end, the choices of 1%-5% of the people determine the final result, that is, the final swing of 200,000 to 1 million voters determines the final political choice of 300 million Americans. 2000 Presidential Election (Decisive State: Florida): George W. Bush (R) leads Al Gore (D) by 537 votes. The “critical minority” here is extremely small. If about 269 voters who originally voted for Bush switched to Gore, the result would change.
As long as you understand the critical minority decision model, you can understand why Trump would rather offend his allies and impose tariffs on the steel and automobile industries, because the US election is decided by these people.
Well, let's further reason about Musk's political opportunities.
It is possible for Musk to turn all US states into swing states. In other words, if he can now use a new concept to form a new political party in the United States, it is entirely possible to become a critical minority in each US state.
According to calculations, how many votes does Musk need to get to achieve this goal?
The maximum required vote ratio: It is approximately in the range of 15% to 19% (mainly in states with a large gap between the two parties). Minimum required vote share:
Of course, this is not enough.
What flag you raise and what call you make are the key to converting fans into voters.
What ideas can Musk use to achieve this goal?
This involves the understanding of American politics. American politics is an interventionist politics. Under interventionist politics, both parties obey the interests of interest groups and ignore the interests of consumers.
The reason why I predicted Biden's defeat early on is that he caused the great inflation in the United States, which made the vast majority of people clearly feel that the difficulties of life were increasing and prices were rising. Trump's catering to the production interests of voters in a few key states will also bring about this result.
At this time, there was an obvious vacuum in American politics, that is, no one represented the interests of American consumers. This has been a vacuum for a long time.
Musk's political opportunity appeared at this time, that is, to form a new party with the interests of consumers as the core appeal, which would have a strong political mobilization force.
The reason why consumers are often ignored in political competition is that they cannot clearly observe that their long-term interests are damaged, and the degree of damage to their short-term interests is often not high enough to enable them to generate strong political mobilization power.
For example, raising tariffs on US steel and automobiles will cause harm to every American who buys a car. , which makes prices rise. Suppose the price of a car increases by two thousand dollars, the loss of consumer interests is universal, but not big enough.
Protecting the monopoly interests of a few American steel workers and auto workers can increase their income by thirty thousand dollars a year.
Cars are only bought once every few years, and the loss of consumer interests is only two thousand dollars. Consumers will not sacrifice their leisure time for this and fight for a long time.
But steel workers and auto workers will fight hard for this income, organize themselves, and make constant noise.
Now in the United States, a high-price consumption model has been formed in countless fields. Whether it is medical care, automobiles, small commodities, or services, prices are rising. At this time, the pain index of consumers is extremely high. Musk has a realistic basis for mobilizing them.
I have thought of all the political slogans for Musk.
Vote for your wallet!
Consumers First, America First!
Your Cost of Living, Our Top Priority!
Reject Special Interests, Embrace Everyday People!
leaf="">Not Left, Not Right, For Your Life!
Not only in the presidential election, but also in the Senate election, we can become a critical minority.
The election of members of the House of Representatives is based on small constituencies, which is difficult to change. But influencing the presidential election and the Senate election is enough to change American politics.
The result of political action does not necessarily have to be aimed at Musk's election as president, but to be able to influence the political results of the United States. This is called winning.
The workers in the steel mills and automobile factories in several swing states can decide American politics. If Musk can get such a large proportion of support, is it not enough? Of course it is enough.
At this time, no matter who wants to run for president, they must first align themselves with Musk's policies in order to have a chance of being elected.
It may be difficult for Musk to be elected as the president of the United States. But if the goal is to change American politics and make marginal improvements, now is the time.
Of course, Musk has a huge bug, that is, he himself is a member of the American interest group, and his companies benefit from the distribution of American taxes. This is his flaw.
If he really wants to enter politics, then these corporate interests must be given up before he can convince the public.
Whether the world's richest man can do this depends on his actions, not on what he says.
Of course, in the long run, even if Musk follows this political line, it will only be a marginal improvement, and it is difficult to improve American politics comprehensively. There is only one way to improve American politics, and that is to continuously eliminate all federal power, or even make the federal government non-existent.
Letting all political power return to the states and counties is the correct direction for political improvement.
If the United States can be divided into dozens of states, there will be a chance for rebirth. As long as the federal government exists, the federal government will have a constant motivation to seize power, and a big government will be difficult to avoid.
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